When your car talks to your insurance

El monitoratge de la nostra conducció ja és ineludible, els cotxes connectats s’han convertit en telèfons intel·ligents amb rodes i són una oportunitat de negoci addicional per a totes les marques, des de poder oferir equipament opcional via subscripcions fins a la venda a tercers de les dades generades per milions de clients. Ens ha de preocupar aquesta nova pèrdua de privacitat?

Amb l’avanç de la tecnologia, els cotxes connectats a internet s’estan convertint en una realitat cada vegada més present en les nostres vides. Els fabricants de cotxes argumenten que aquests vehicles sense botons físics, amb pantalles gegants i farcits de càmeres i sensors que monitoritzen el nostre comportament ofereixen una experiència de conducció més “segura” i còmoda.  

Aquesta capacitat per comunicar-se amb altres vehicles, dispositius i serveis a través d’internet també obre noves oportunitats de negoci per a les marques. Alguns fabricants de cotxes ja han posat a prova la paciència dels seus clients amb models de subscripció mensual per seients calefactables, mentre d’altres ofereixen més potencia a canvi d’una subscripció anual o es pantaixen cobrar una subscripció per les opcions més populars.

A més, gràcies a aquesta interconnexió els vehicles poden recopilar i transmetre dades en temps real sobre els hàbits de conducció, la ubicació i l’estat del vehicle, que ofereixen un potencial d’ingressos addicionals per a les marques disposades a vendre aquesta informació, la qual cosa pot suposar una amenaça per al dret a la privacitat dels usuaris. 

De la teoria a la realitat

Un informe elaborat per la fundació Mozilla alertava que els cotxes connectats són “terribles en concepte de privacitat i seguretat” i destacava que 25 de les marques de cotxes més conegudes recopilen sense consentiment un gran nombre de dades dels seus usuaris, no sols relacionades estrictament amb la conducció, com el seu lloc de residència o les seves destinacions habituals, sinó també d’altres molt més sensibles, com a expressions facials, estat de salut i informació genètica o sobre la seva vida sexual, tot això mitjançant dispositius connectats, micròfons i càmeres.

Segons l’estudi, un 84% de les marques analitzades comparteixen o venen les dades dels propietaris i un 92% atorga als conductors poc o cap control sobre les seves dades personals. Tot i que totes les marques suspenen en el tractament de dades, Tesla obté el pitjor resultat, mentre que Renault, Dacia i BMW, respectivament, tenen menys mala puntuació.

Alguns van qualificar aquest informe d’alarmista, tanmateix, pocs mesos després, el New York Times informava que algunes marques ja estan compartint dades dels hàbits de conducció dels seus clients amb les asseguradores i que als “mals conductors” ja els havien apujat les pòlisses fins a un 21%, sense haver tingut cap accident.

Kenn Dahl, un informàtic de Seattle, als Estats Units, que condueix un Chevrolet Bolt elèctric, va aconseguir un informe de LexisNexis, una agència de dades amb seu a Nova York que treballa amb asseguradores, on s’havien registrat les 640 vegades que ell o la seva dona havien agafat el cotxe en els últims sis mesos, amb tot luxe de detalls, com l’hora d’inici i fi del trajecte, les distàncies recorregudes, i totes les vegades que va passar de 130 km/h, o quan va fer frenades brusques o fortes acceleracions.

Totes aquestes dades es van recopilar i, sobretot, es van vendre sense que el Sr. Dahl ho sabés. En aquest cas es van vendre a companyies d’assegurances, però de la mateixa manera es podien haver venut a altres empreses de qualsevol àmbit.

Estem protegits per la legislació europea?

La normativa europea sobre el tractament de les dades personals aplicada als cotxes connectats es basa en el Reglament General de Protecció de Dades (RGPD) i en la Directiva ePrivacy, que estableixen els principis i drets que han de respectar-se en el tractament de les dades personals. 

Entre altres obligacions, les empreses responsables del tractament de dades han d’informar els interessats sobre l’ús de les seves dades, obtenir el seu consentiment quan sigui necessari, garantir la seguretat i confidencialitat de les dades, minimitzar la quantitat i el temps de conservació de les dades i permetre l’exercici dels drets d’accés, rectificació, supressió, limitació, oposició i portabilitat.

Bàsicament, la mateixa normativa que ja s’aplica quant al tractament de dades i privacitat dels dispositius mòbils com ara els telèfons intel·ligents. Dit això, no és cap secret que feta la norma, feta la trampa, per la qual cosa els experts sempre recomanen revisar minuciosament els termes i condicions i només facilitar les dades o acceptar funcionalitats que realment aportin un valor real, cosa a la qual estem acostumats quan fem servir el mòbil, però que fins fa poc era impensable haver de tenir en compte cada vegada que engeguem el “nostre” cotxe.

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The world is not abandoning the dollar overnight, but more and more countries are trying to reduce their dependence on a financial system dominated by the United States.

For decades, the U.S. dollar has been much more than a currency. It has been the center of gravity of global trade, central bank reserves, and the international financial system. But something is changing. Slowly. Quietly. And, probably, irreversibly.

While headlines continue to focus on wars, sanctions, and geopolitical tensions, a much deeper movement is taking place beneath the surface: the fragmentation of the global monetary system built after the Second World War. The growing use of the dollar as a tool of geopolitical pressure has led many powers to start looking for alternatives to protect their economies and reduce vulnerabilities.

This is not yet the end of the dollar. But it is the beginning of a new scenario in which countries such as China, Russia, and India are promoting trade agreements in local currencies, strengthening alternative payment systems, and accumulating gold reserves at a very high pace. At the same time, central banks are developing digital monetary infrastructures that could redefine how the global financial system works over the coming decades.

Bretton Woods: the origin of the dollar’s global dominance

To understand what is happening today, we need to go back to 1944. With Europe devastated by war and the United States having become the planet’s leading industrial and financial power, the Bretton Woods Agreements established a new international monetary order.

The system was apparently simple: the dollar was linked to gold, and the rest of the world’s currencies were linked to the dollar. In practice, this turned the United States into the world’s financial referee. However, the system began to crack when Washington printed more money than it could back with gold reserves. In 1971, Richard Nixon suspended the dollar’s convertibility into gold, definitively burying the gold standard. From that moment on, the dollar was no longer backed by a physical asset and came to rest on something else: trust and geopolitical power.

The petrodollar: the great key to the system

The great strategic move came shortly afterwards. During the 1970s, the United States consolidated agreements with Saudi Arabia and other oil-exporting countries so that global crude oil would be sold exclusively in dollars. Thus, the petrodollar system was born.

The consequence was enormous. Any country that needed oil —that is, practically everyone— first had to obtain dollars. This created artificial global demand for the U.S. currency and allowed the United States to finance gigantic deficits with an ease impossible for any other country. The dollar thus became a trade currency, an international reserve, a financial safe haven, and a tool of geopolitical power.

But this privilege also created tensions. For decades, the system worked because there was no real alternative. However, the growing use of sanctions, financial blockades, and trade restrictions has led many powers to start seeing the dollar as a strategic vulnerability. When a country can be expelled from the SWIFT system, see its reserves frozen, or lose access to international trade because of a political decision made in Washington, dependence on the dollar ceases to be merely economic and becomes geopolitical. That is where dedollarization begins.

Russia, China, and the BRICS accelerate the shift

The invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia acted as a historic accelerator. Many countries understood that, if dollar reserves could be frozen, perhaps they were not as safe as they seemed. Since then, Russia and China have increased bilateral trade in yuan and rubles, India has purchased oil outside the traditional dollar circuit, the BRICS have promoted alternative payment systems, and several countries are exploring their own digital currencies to reduce dependence on the Western system.

It is no coincidence that central banks are accumulating gold at a very high pace. Gold remains one of the few monetary assets with no counterparty risk. It does not depend on any government, it cannot easily be sanctioned, and it preserves value outside the traditional financial system. When central banks buy gold massively, they do not do so out of historical romanticism. They do so because they are looking for protection.

This movement is not only taking place in reserves, but also in payment infrastructures. In parallel, central banks have been working for years on their own digital currencies —CBDCs—. Officially, they are presented as a tool to modernize payments and increase the efficiency of the financial system. But they also represent a new monetary architecture with unprecedented potential for control: they make it possible to track financial movements, limit the use of capital, apply monetary policies directly, and increase the supervisory capacity of states. That is why the great question is not only which system will replace the current one, but what degree of financial freedom citizens will retain within this new model.

Dedollarization will not be a collapse, but a transition

The most apocalyptic narratives constantly announce the imminent fall of the dollar. But reality will probably be slower and more complex. The United States remains the planet’s leading financial power, the dollar still represents a central share of global reserves, and no currency currently has the real capacity to replace it completely.

But that does not mean the system is immutable. Major monetary changes usually happen gradually, until a crisis accelerates processes that had been developing for years. The world is not suddenly destroying the dollar: it is building alternatives in order not to depend exclusively on it. Perhaps the real change will not be seeing the dollar disappear, but seeing it cease to be indispensable.

The great unknown is what will come next: a multipolar system with several regional currencies, a greater role for gold, digital currencies controlled by central banks, or a hybrid system in which all these tools coexist. It is still too early to know, but one thing is clear: dedollarization is no longer a marginal theory.

It is a real process that is redefining the global economic balance. And, as always happens in major historical transitions, the cost will not be paid only by those who design the system, but above all by the citizens who live within it. That is why, for the 11Onze community, understanding these changes is not alarmism: it is financial culture, wealth protection, and personal sovereignty. Those who understand the system can prepare better. Those who do not understand it only suffer its consequences.

Protecting savings with physical gold has been one of 11Onze’s main contributions to its community and, now, the range of products is being expanded. That is why, in the face of volatility, still-high inflation and the growing crisis of confidence in the banking system, gold is once again strengthening as a safe-haven asset. Discover Gold Seed at Preciosos 11Onze.

The confinement in the wake of the pandemic and two and a half years of runaway inflation have changed our spending habits. Recent economic data shows that we have reduced spending on material goods, but, despite rising prices, we are spending more on leisure activities. This is known as ‘funflation’.

Agroflation, biflation, deflation, stagflation, hyperinflation… If you have managed to keep up with the endless repertoire of inflation-related terms that emerged in recent years, here is another one to add to your dictionary: ‘funflation’.

It is an economic concept that combines the apparent contradiction between fun and inflation to reflect a society that prefers to enjoy the present, going to bars, restaurants and hotels, despite rising prices. Although high inflation continues to erode household savings, people have reduced their spending on material goods but have not stopped spending on leisure activities, and tourism remains at record levels.

We find ourselves with new and not-so-new generations aware of the near impossibility of owning a home or having a salary that allows us to save money but convinced that life must be enjoyed.

More spending on restaurants, hotels, leisure, and culture

Data from the latest Household Budget Survey conducted by the National Statistics Institute (INE) show that the average expenditure per household was 32,617 euros in 2023, an increase of 3.8% over the previous year.

The sectors where the average expenditure per household increased the most were restaurants and hotels, leisure and culture. Specifically, 3,331 euros were spent per household on restaurants and accommodation services, 386 more than in 2022, representing 13.2% of expenditure. While in leisure and culture, the biggest increase was in package holidays, with an average total expenditure per household of €1,651, 138 more than in 2022.

According to Business Insider, the economic data shows that spending on restaurants and leisure has increased, while buying material goods has decreased. Pedro Rey, professor at ESADE’s Department of Economics, specialising in behavioural economics, explained to the business publication that the difference lies in the fact that experience is now prioritised more, to the detriment of other items, such as clothes, household appliances or cars, the price of which is high in lean times.

The trend is to enjoy the present and life’s pleasures as if the world is coming to an end. After the shock of the confinement and the subsequent crises that have followed the sanitary crisis, it is not surprising that many consumers prioritise their mental well-being and social interaction over financial security.

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For years, talking about de-dollarisation, the return of gold or the decline of the Western monetary order seemed like an extravagance. A subject reserved for heterodox economists, geopolitical analysts or investors obsessed with systemic crises. Meanwhile, the dominant narrative repeated that the dollar was impregnable, that central banks had everything under control and that gold was little more than a relic of the past.

But history has a persistent habit: it always returns. And now, even the major international financial institutions are beginning to verbalise what was already visible to any attentive observer of the foundations of the global monetary system. The recent report by the Deutsche Bank Research Institute is not just another financial analysis. It is the recognition that the world is entering a new monetary, geopolitical and economic stage.

At 11Onze, we have been explaining this transformation for some time. Because this is not just about gold. It is about trust. It is about power. It is about monetary sovereignty. And it is, above all, about understanding the world before the official narrative admits that it has already changed.

The End of the Unipolar World

After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the West lived through an exceptional period. The United States became the undisputed power on the planet and the dollar consolidated itself as the backbone of global trade, international reserves and financial markets. The system worked because the world trusted the US.

Central banks accumulated dollars and US Treasury bonds. Exporting countries recycled their surpluses by buying American debt. And international trade moved within an architecture dominated by Western institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank or SWIFT.

At 11Onze, we were already explaining years ago that this architecture was beginning to show cracks. More and more countries were seeking to reduce their dependence on the dollar in the face of economic sanctions, the weaponisation of the financial system and the uncontrolled expansion of US debt. Today, that process is impossible to ignore.

The dollar’s share of global reserves has been gradually declining, while central bank gold purchases have accelerated. The freezing of Russian reserves after the war in Ukraine acted as a psychological turning point: many countries understood that their dollar-denominated assets could become political instruments. When money ceases to be neutral, states look for alternatives. And gold inevitably returns to the centre of the system.

The Silent Return of Gold

For decades, the modern financial system tried to relegate gold to a secondary role. But central banks never stopped considering it a strategic asset. The difference is that now they no longer hide it. At 11Onze, we have been explaining for years that gold is much more than a precious metal: it is a monetary asset with no counterparty risk, physically limited and impossible to print by political decision.

In a world of chronic fiscal deficits, permanent monetary expansion and structural inflation, central banks are recovering an instinct that has accompanied humanity for millennia: accumulating real assets. Gold purchases by emerging economies are not the result of short-term speculation, but of a structural trend. The major institutional players are preparing for a more fragmented, less stable and far more multipolar world.

China Is No Longer the Future. It Is the Present.

This snapshot becomes one of the most significant economic images of recent years, because it shows us how China already represents close to 20% of global GDP in purchasing power parity, far surpassing the United States. This is not a simple statistical detail. It is the reflection of a historic shift in the world’s economic centre of gravity.

For two centuries, the West has dominated industry, finance, technology, maritime trade and the international monetary architecture. Now, for the first time in generations, a world is emerging in which that dominance is no longer absolute. And this has inevitable monetary consequences, because the international monetary system always ends up reflecting the real distribution of economic and productive power.

The current crisis is not only financial. It is, above all, a crisis of trust. Central banks have multiplied their balance sheets, governments have driven deficits upwards, inflation has reduced purchasing power and citizens are realising that working more does not always mean preserving more wealth. In this context, the major banks are not anticipating the future when they talk about the return of gold or de-dollarisation: they are simply adapting their discourse to a reality that is already too evident to continue ignoring.

And this is where a community like 11Onze adds value, because financial sovereignty does not consist only of buying an asset or protecting wealth, but of understanding the structural movements of the world before they become media consensus. The twenty-first century will not resemble the end of the twentieth century. The unipolar world is running out of steam, blind trust in fiat money is weakening and the new monetary architecture is already under way. The question is not whether the world will change. The question is who will be prepared to understand it before everyone else.

Protecting savings with physical gold has been one of 11Onze’s main contributions to its community and, now, the range of products is being expanded. That is why, in the face of volatility, still-high inflation and the growing crisis of confidence in the banking system, gold is once again strengthening as a safe-haven asset. Discover Gold Seed at Preciosos 11Onze.

L’exuberància econòmica de finals del segle XVII farà creure a les monarquies europees que la riquesa del món és estàtica i que només cal repartir-la. La constant entrada d’or i de plata dins l’economia els permetrà universalitzar la seva idea de civilització, i s’aprofitaran de la meravella causada en aquelles cultures amb pràctiques i creences ancestrals. Dels 700 milions de persones que habitaran el món, quasi 120 milions viuran a Europa, atès que la mundialització —iniciada dos segles abans— els possibilitarà una varietat alimentària que els permetrà allargar la seva esperança de vida. 

En finalitzar el segle, els europeus hauran verificat empíricament tota la terra, la qual cosa els permetrà generar una cartografia basada en l’observació de la realitat. Lluny quedarà aquella geografia imaginària fonamentada en les supersticions dogmàtiques. D’aquesta manera, apareixeran infinitud de descripcions sobre civilitzacions exòtiques dins l’imaginari europeu, el qual dibuixarà un canvi en els gustos —més orientalitzats— i suscitarà una progressiva actitud crítica davant les creences que els europeus tenen sobre el món. Aquest sentiment d’universalitat cultural s’anirà diluint a mesura que l’europeu entengui que el món també està habitat per una multitud de cultures i civilitzacions, les quals són diferents de les descripcions contingudes a la Bíblia.

Per tant, l’adopció del pensament crític comportarà la codificació enciclopèdica de la natura a través del revolucionari mètode científic, el qual es basarà en l’observació, l’experimentació i l’especulació empírica. La física —escrita amb llenguatge matemàtic— descriurà les formes i les mides dels cossos celestes, mitjançant l’ús de la recentment creada geometria analítica. I a partir d’aquest moment, la ciència esdevindrà un corpus de coneixement diferenciat de la filosofia i la religió. Tot plegat desembocarà en una percepció de la realitat que provocarà que les elits intel·lectuals europees es qüestionin conceptes tan bàsics com la propietat, la justícia, el poder i, per damunt de tot, la religió.

El qüestionament de la divinització del poder

De forma clara, l’Església — tant la catòlica com la protestant— haurà de fer front a multitud de veus discordants que dubtaran sobre l’origen diví dels textos sagrats, atès que es qüestionarà l’autoria divina de les Sagrades Escriptures. Aleshores, la religió esdevindrà un assumpte individual i privat entre l’home o la dona amb Déu. I en virtut d’aquesta privatització, els europeus progressivament s’alliberaran de dependre obligatòriament de les disciplines dogmàtiques imposades per l’Església des del segle X. 

El fet de qüestionar el fonament sagrat que justificava l’existència dels Estats cristians, esquerdarà la legitimitat confessional de l’autoritat política representada pel monarca. Amb la presa de consciència del propi jo —a través del principi racional “cogito ergo sum”— s’inaugurarà la filosofia moderna que portarà als savis il·lustrats a qüestionar obertament la divinització del poder reial. 

Aquest innovador pensament racional provocarà un xoc frontal entre els partidaris del poder absolut —en mans d’una sola persona i defensat aferrissadament per totes les monarquies europees— contra els defensors de l’estat natural de l’ésser humà, els quals argumentaran que “cap home no pot ser sotmès a la voluntat arbitrària d’un altre home, ni pot ser obligat a obeir lleis que un altre home no seguiria com ell.” Aquest pensament provocarà una profunda crisi de la consciència europea, la qual obrirà el camí cap a la invenció de la llibertat i la reclamació de la igualtat social.

El poder absolut i el mercantilisme

Els teòrics del poder monàrquic —com Jean Bodin o Thomas Hobbes— justificaran l’absolutisme com la forma més perfecta de govern i l’única capaç de gestionar la gran acumulació de riqueses que s’extreuen de les colònies. L’alt funcionariat —designat pel mateix rei— desenvoluparà mecanismes cada vegada més eficaços per organitzar meticulosament les finances de l’Estat, atès que els seus guanys no només s’aconseguiran per mitjà de la introducció de gran quantitat d’or i de plata dins del sistema econòmic, sinó que també es maximitzaran les exportacions i minimitzaran les importacions amb l’ajuda d’estratègics aranzels. 

Convençuts que la riquesa del món era estàtica perquè només calia agafar-la, intercanviar-la o robar-la, les monarquies absolutistes perseguiran qualsevol intromissió o iniciativa privada que desestabilitzi el sistema del comerç internacional, com per exemple la persecució sistemàtica de la pirateria. En canvi, la multitud de conflictes bèl·lics entre les diferents monarquies europees —al llarg del XVII i XVIII— seran vistos com un intercanvi necessari de riqueses, territoris o persones en què totes hi sortiran guanyant o perdent, i d’aquesta manera es mantindrà el sistema econòmic viu, el qual sempre haurà de sumar zero.   

Les monarquies europees —aclaparades per l’abundància— s’oblidaran completament de la vida dels seus súbdits. Meravellades per la situació, seran incapaces d’aplicar millores socials i econòmiques i aviat toparan amb el greu problema de la pobresa col·lectiva dins les seves societats. I en un context d’un incipient conflicte social —com serà el de principis del segle XVIII—, els economistes de l’època, Colbert, Mun, Serra o Misselden, defensaran l’aplicació d’una política de salaris baixos com única via per aconseguir la competitivitat en el comerç internacional, seguit del pervers argument que “si la població disposa de salaris superiors al nivell de subsistència, aquests esdevindran els causants de la reducció en l’esforç laboral.” 

La riquesa extreta de les colònies, no només s’acumularà o es transformarà en els recursos productius que l’economia requereix, sinó que sobretot s’utilitzarà per ser exhibida a través de les arts —arquitectura, pintura i escultura—, les ciències i la cultura. I tot plegat desembocarà en una paradoxa quan les principals monarquies absolutistes —francesa, austríaca, russa o castellana— seran capaces de viure dins dels seus fastuosos palaus, en la més exquisida i refinada opulència, sense importar-los l’escassetat de recursos amb els quals vivien la majoria dels seus súbdits. Tanmateix, aquesta dinàmica estructural s’esmicolarà amb la irrupció del racionalisme il·lustrat dins del pensament europeu, que contribuirà al trencament definitiu de l’statu quo de segles d’excessos monàrquics. El despotisme il·lustrat li atribuirà al monarca la missió de portar el progrés econòmic i el benestar social a tots els seus súbdits, cosa que produirà infinitud de conflictes socials. I en aquest punt, no totes les monarquies europees abordaran el problema de redistribuir la riquesa de la mateixa manera.

Dues solucions per a un mateix problema

Una de les respostes la donarà la Corona de Castella a través de les seves polítiques econòmiques, les quals encara li permetran ostentar una relativa predominança internacional. Malgrat tot, l’extracció massiva de metalls preciosos del “Nou Món” —que li havia permès obcecar-se amb la seva particular idea d’universalització cultural— li havia provocat una miopia i una nul·la adaptabilitat als moviments canviants de l’economia. Per tant, davant el repte de redistribuir la prosperitat entre els seus súbdits, es trobarà atrapada entre un deute gegantí i una societat poc dinàmica que dependrà majoritàriament de les decisions reials i dels recursos que arriben de les colònies. Tot plegat posarà de manifest l’existència d’una piràmide social parasitària que provocarà que un sol camperol —condicionat pel sistema de censos i de furs— estigui obligat a alimentar a trenta no-productors.   

Per tant, l’estratègia que seguirà la Corona de Castella —a través dels ‘validos’ del rei, els famosos duc de Lerma, el comte-duc d’Olivares o el pare Nithard— serà la d’exercir una forta pressió fiscal mitjançant l’increment o creació de nous impostos sobre les fràgils economies camperoles, o sobre les classes urbanes per mitjà de constants pujades de preus i baixades de salaris. Aquest programa econòmic buscarà obtenir els màxims recursos per a continuar sustentant la idea d’Imperi, atès que fins aleshores els havia permès gaudir d’una balança comercial positiva. En contraposició, se situaran la noblesa i el clergat, els quals quedaran totalment exemptes de totes aquestes càrregues fiscals, a part de permetre’ls incrementar el cobrament de les seves rentes. Al capdavall, tot desembocarà en un important empobriment de la societat castellana, amb conseqüències tan desastroses sobre la natalitat i el despoblament de grans territoris de la Meseta, i que no es recuperarà totalment fins a principis del segle XX. I per reblar el clau, la societat serà segrestada pel Tribunal del Santo Oficio de la Inquisición, la qual vetllarà —a través de la censura, la crema de llibres “prohibits” i un integrisme misogin— perquè no germini cap pensament crític que defugi de la línia oficialista. 

Per altra banda, trobem la resposta dels territoris del nord d’Europa —com són la Corona anglesa i les disset Províncies Unides— la qual suposarà introduir amb fermesa les idees il·lustrades dins la societat, la política i l’economia. Mentre Anglaterra acabarà constituint-se en una monarquia parlamentària, a través d’un procés polític que limitarà el poder del monarca i la separació de poders, la unió militar d’Utrecht —constituïda per les disset Províncies Unides— combatrà enèrgicament fins a la Pau de Münster l’ocupació de la Corona de Castella per esdevenir la república de les Províncies Unides del Nord. Ambdós territoris adoptaran una nova mirada sobre el comerç que provocarà la mutació del sistema econòmic i adoptarà una lògica de lliure mercat sense restriccions ni proteccions estatals. La generació de riquesa ja no es farà a través de la sang, sinó que serà per mitjà de l’habilitat que tingui l’individu en l’acumulació de capitals cosa que farà aparèixer la plusvàlua, origen de la nova conflictivitat. I en aquest nou paradigma econòmic, l’Estat ja no hi tindrà cabuda atès que els elements bàsics i irreductibles que impulsaran aquesta nova mentalitat serà —tant per empreses com per individus— sota l’imperatiu econòmic de maximitzar els guanys i minimitzar les pèrdues.

Canvi de paradigma econòmic

La universalitat cultural que havia imperat fins aleshores serà substituïda per nous raonaments basats en “si es pot demostrar que el rendiment econòmic que tota la producció industrial del món ha d’estar concentrada a Madagascar o a les illes Fiji o que tota la població d’Àfrica negra s’ha de traslladar al Nou Món per a treballar en les plantacions de cotó o de la canya de sucre, no existeix cap argument econòmic que pugui aturar aquestes iniciatives.” I d’aquesta manera, el capitalisme imposarà una globalització cada vegada més extensa i arribarà a regions cada vegada més remotes, les quals seran transformades de manera més profunda. 

El món es dividirà en parcel·les productives seguint criteris globals com “no té cap sentit produir plàtans a Noruega perquè la seva producció és molt més barata a Hondures”. Per tant, quan els terratinents argentins només produeixin carn o els grangers australians només esdevinguin experts productors de llana, serà el moment en què hauran abandonat la seva pròpia producció agrícola, ja que els resultarà més beneficiós comprar les produccions cereals per l’autoconsum a l’exterior. D’aquesta manera, aquestes transaccions els permetrà especular i treure més rendiment econòmic a les seves inversions. 

I en aquest sentit, tant Anglaterra com Holanda esdevindran els únics exportadors de capitals i serveis financers a les colònies americanes o asiàtiques amb la finalitat de desestabilitzar els antics imperis —Castella i Portugal— i d’aquesta manera assegurar-se les matèries primeres per a la incipient revolució industrial. Les borses de Londres o Anvers —fundades a finals del XVII— esdevindran les capitals comercials de la nova economia que es basarà sobre les expectatives d’un dinamisme especulatiu, les quals seran participades principalment pels descendents d’aquells jueus sefardites expulsats per la Monarquia Hispànica a finals dels XV.

Des del principi, tant Anglaterra com Holanda van tenir la certesa que per desenvolupar el nou paradigma econòmic calia engegar un procés de concentració de l’activitat econòmica per mitjà de la urbanització de les zones costaneres, cosa que els possibilità l’impuls de la construcció naval i el desenvolupament de manufactures properes als ports. Això els va permetre convertir els seus litorals en espais econòmicament molt dinàmics i potents. Un fet similar succeirà a la costa peninsular mediterrània, la qual passarà a ser un dels territoris amb un creixement econòmic similar al dels territoris del nord d’Europa. Serà aleshores quan Catalunya adquirirà la cohesió territorial sobre les bases d’un sistema urbà estretament entrellaçat amb Barcelona —com a centre comercial i polític— alhora que es desenvoluparà la indústria pels pobles propers —Sants i Sant Martí de Provençals— i l’activitat mercantil es reorientarà cap a l’Atlàntic i l’interior peninsular.

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It is no secret that the linear production model we have applied so far, based on extracting, producing, consuming and throwing away, is unsustainable for life on our planet. The industry has long been suffering from the effects of natural resource scarcity and is exponentially increasing its investment in circular economy initiatives.

At our current rate of living, humanity needs 1.75 Earths per year. In other words, we use 75% more resources than our planet can regenerate, thus, for decades, we have been consuming more natural resources than the planet can replenish annually.

In the last 50 years, global use of material resources has almost quadrupled, outpacing population growth. Humans consume about 100 billion tonnes of raw materials per year, such as oil, gas and metals. Yet we reuse barely 9%, with the European Union alone generating more than 2.1 billion tonnes of waste yearly.

The current socio-economic system based on consumerism and a linear production model has its days numbered and can only guarantee its sustainability, both environmentally and economically, by establishing a circular economy system. A responsible and more sustainable production and consumption model must be established so that raw materials remain in the production cycles longer and can be used repeatedly while generating much less waste.

A change of mentality is needed to facilitate a transition towards a model based on reducing, reusing and recycling, instead of producing, using and throwing away. The aim is to achieve maximum development using as few resources as possible and generating minimum costs through a circular economy model.

The industry is taking action

According to a study by the German Federal Environment Ministry and consultancy Roland Berger, the global circular economy market volume generated €148 billion in 2021 and is forecast to grow to €263 billion by 2030, an increase of 78%.

A recently published ABB report entitled ‘Circularity, no time to waste’ reveals that in Spain, 94% of companies in the industrial sector are feeling the effects of the scarcity of natural resources, which has led 58% of them to increase their investment in circular economy initiatives.

Although the perception persists that the adoption of circular production practices entails additional costs, the study points out that their implementation can result in significant cost savings in the long term.

This reluctance to change is mainly because many companies still tend to focus exclusively on upfront capital and operating expenses, without taking into account that the simplified processes inherent in these practices increase efficiency and optimise resources. Thus, reducing waste and operating expenses in the long run.

Even so, the data show that most companies support circularity regulations and that, despite the lack of a standardised approach and the slow adoption of some practices, they will increase their investment over the next three years.

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Tenint en compte que vivim en un planeta amb recursos finits, el model econòmic actual basat en un creixement il·limitat sembla destinat al col·lapse. Però hi ha una alternativa viable? Estem preparats per assumir les conseqüències d’una reducció deliberada de la producció i del consum? 

El creixement econòmic mundial es va veure esperonat per la revolució industrial i es va disparar a la fi de la Segona Guerra Mundial amb l’eclosió del consumisme. A partir dels anys 50 va començar un ràpid procés de creixement econòmic sense precedents que, tot i les recessions, s’ha mostrat imparable.

El consum d’energia per càpita va seguir un camí paral·lel després d’haver-se mantingut relativament estable durant dècades. I el mateix podem dir sobre l’ús de fertilitzants, consum d’aigua, producció de paper, etc. De la mateixa manera, les emissions de gasos d’efecte hivernacle i la pèrdua de biodiversitat van augmentar exponencialment.

És evident que aquest procés de desenvolupament va lligat a un augment de l’ús de recursos naturals, la contaminació i el canvi climàtic. Per tant, cal plantejar una transformació conscient i planificada de l’estructura econòmica i social per fer-la més sostenible. 

Per a avançar cap aquesta transició ecològica es necessiten pactes que facin possible una reducció dels negocis ambientalment nocius en benefici d’altres més sostenibles i que formin part d’una economia circular. Potser més important, cal un canvi de mentalitat de la societat i, encara més difícil, d’una classe política ara supeditada als interessos corporatius.

Fugint d’una falsa dicotomia

A diferència del creixement econòmic, que es mesura per l’augment del producte interior brut (PIB), el concepte del decreixement econòmic és un moviment social i polític que fomenta la reducció deliberada de la productivitat i el consum i que promou la redistribució de la riquesa per assolir una vida més sostenible i equilibrada.

Els debats sobre l’actitud a prendre enfront del canvi climàtic o el model de creixement econòmic imperant sovint es redueixen a la confrontació entre aquests dos extrems. Per una banda, els partidaris de no canviar res per mantenir l’statu quo, per l’altra, els que ho volen canviar tot per desmantellar el sistema actual i substituir-lo per un model de decreixement. 

Es tracta d’un fals dilema que divideix a la societat i no representa al públic en general. No té per què ser així. Per exemple, d’igual manera que tots podem estar d’acord a dir que és preferible millorar el benestar social en comptes d’empitjorar-lo, o el funcionament de les institucions públiques, o evitar els conflictes bèl·lics, segurament també ens posaríem d’acord si parléssim en termes de creixement sostenible o decreixement de les indústries contaminants. 

Per altra part, no es pot aplicar la mateixa solució en l’àmbit global. El creixement econòmic ve acompanyat de la prosperitat i és molt fàcil i, fins i tot d’hipòcrita, advocar per un model de decreixement econòmic mundial des d’una posició de privilegi envers els països en vies de desenvolupament. Un dilema que no és nou i que ja ha generat tensions quant a les quotes de reducció de gasos d’efecte hivernacle.

De la mateixa manera, un decreixement econòmic imposat requeriria una intervenció estatal i una pèrdua de llibertats sense precedents, almenys en una societat democràtica. Estem preparats per assumir aquest major control governamental després del que s’ha vist amb les protestes dels pagesos en contra d’aquest tipus de mesures que s’han produït al llarg d’Europa? Podem assumir més impostos i més restriccions en el que podem o no podem fer?

No hi ha cap dubte que aquesta transició cap a un model de societat més sostenible és necessària, tanmateix, tant si s’opta per mantenir, incrementar o reduir el creixement econòmic, la solució passarà necessàriament per adoptar un model híbrid que sigui viable i capaç de cohesionar al conjunt de la societat.

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The latest eurozone PMIs show worse-than-expected figures and support the case for a rate cut by the ECB in September. The private sector virtually stagnated in July, and the German economy suffered a further contraction in industrial production.

With the stock market meltdown of the last few days behind us, investors are now focused on the final Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) data that several countries start to release later this week and which may signal a recovery of the eurozone economy.

Still, preliminary survey data from S&P Global shows weaker-than-expected numbers, indicating a negative outlook for eurozone manufacturers. On the one hand, the manufacturing PMI declined from 46.1 in June to 45.3 in July. On the other hand, the services PMI fell from 52.8 to 51.9. While the PMI for total activity fell to 50.1 from 50.9 in June.

According to S&P Global, new orders recorded a second consecutive month of decline, while business confidence fell to a six-month low, prompting companies to halt hiring that began earlier in the year. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, noted that “Preliminary PMI survey data point to a near stagnation in the euro area private sector economy in July as the single currency bloc’s economic recovery has continued to fade”.

Eurozone recovery in doubt

There are no signs of the significant recovery in the eurozone that was expected during the second half of the year. The new orders sub-index remained at its lowest level in three months. This has resulted in an acceleration of the decline in output and an increase in job cuts.

As a result, employment in the eurozone experienced its largest decline since December 2023, with job losses continuing for the past 14 months. “This data dampens hopes of a recovery,” Commerzbank analysts said, expressing concern that “this rebound looks set to be later and weaker than expected”.

“The widespread belief that the eurozone recovery would accelerate significantly in the second half of the year has not materialised. At the beginning of the year, it seemed that the sector would recover from the recession, but doubts that emerged in June have been exacerbated by a further downturn in July,” explained de la Rubia.

The German problem

While macroeconomic data released today shows that industrial production in Germany rose by 1.4% compared to the previous month, year-on-year industrial production fell by 4%. At the same time, exports continue to fall, dropping by 3.4% month-on-month in June, compared to a 3.1% month-on-month decline in May.

On the other hand, according to the S&P reading, July’s PMI index was 0.3 points lower than June’s, remaining at 43.2. Therefore, it is clearly below the 50-point threshold, which would signify an increase in economic activity, and also below 44 points, which indicates a contraction in industrial production.

The Hamburg Commercial Bank warns that “this data illustrates a serious problem. The German economy has suffered a further contraction, dragged down by a dramatic decline in industrial production.”

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The eurozone debt crisis widened the economic gap between northern and Southern Europe. The worst affected countries, Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, were pejoratively dubbed “PIGS” by northern countries which now see the southern economies leading European growth while their own are sinking.

The 2008 financial crisis had a devastating impact worldwide, especially in southern European countries. The bursting of the housing bubble in Spain, the debt burden in Italy, financial mismanagement in Greece and structural economic problems in Portugal led to drastic austerity measures following the intervention of the Troika, the triumvirate formed by the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

These countries were known as the “PIGS”, a pejorative term used by northern European countries when criticising southern countries’ debt and deficit management. Ireland was later added to the group of undesirables, even though Greece was the most prominent case because it had one of the highest debt levels.

The EU’s response was to approve plans for an economic ‘bailout’ that came with draconian austerity measures that bailed out mainly German and British banks at the expense of condemning generations of the populations of the supposedly rescued countries to pay this debt. These measures were extremely unpopular and provoked many social protests, well-known to the IMF executives.

Leading economic growth

A decade and a half after this financial defeat, the European economic scenario turned 180 degrees. Although the ‘PIGS’ continue to work their way out of the EU’s economic periphery, they have become its new engine of growth, while the northern countries are a drag.

During the last 12 months, the eurozone has dodged a technical recession by a miracle, however, Spain and the rest of the PIGS have managed to lead economic growth and be mainly responsible for preventing this technical recession from occurring.

It is true that the structural reforms implemented in industry, the labour market and the financial sector, together with advances in monetary and fiscal unity, contributed to improving the competitiveness of the southern countries, but other factors have influenced the economic recovery and leadership of recent years.

The better performance of southern European economies relative to the rest of the EU can be explained by developments in the energy sector and tourism, in particular the way these sectors have been affected by the war in Ukraine and the health pandemic. The greater weight of the tourism sector in the southern countries has been felt, as well as their lower dependence on Russian gas compared to other countries such as Germany, which has been hit by a severe self-imposed industrial crisis with the sanctions on Russia.

Aside from this recent economic revival in southern European countries, it remains to be seen whether they will be able to create a more sustainable economic model that is less dependent on tourism, control public debt and improve their productivity. In any case, it seems that being a ‘pig’ is not such a bad thing these days.

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Europe is talking more and more about “strategic autonomy”. But what exactly does that mean? Energy, technological or military independence? Or is it just a political slogan in an increasingly fragmented world? Amid global geopolitical tension, the European Union is trying to redefine its role between the United States and China. And in this scenario, territories such as Catalonia may find a window of opportunity… or become trapped in a new dependency.

For decades, Europe has built its economic model on a basis that appeared efficient but was deeply dependent: cheap energy from Russia, competitive manufacturing from China and military security under the umbrella of the United States. This balance, which seemed functional, has broken down. The war in Ukraine, global trade tensions and the growing use of sanctions as a tool of geopolitical pressure have exposed an uncomfortable reality: Europe does not control its strategic levers.

The global economic system is not neutral, but rather responds to power structures that have generated technological, financial and commercial dependencies on a worldwide scale. This architecture limits the real sovereignty of territories and conditions their decisions. For this reason, the question is no longer whether Europe wants to be independent, but to clearly identify what it wants —and can— stop depending on.

Reindustrialisation: producing again… at what price?

One of Brussels’ answers is clear: reindustrialise Europe. The pandemic and the supply crisis revealed the extent to which dependence on China was critical, from microchips to pharmaceutical products. For years, Europe has outsourced its productive capacity, prioritising low costs over industrial sovereignty. Now, the shift is clear, with incentives to manufacture semiconductors, plans to recover strategic sectors and investments in renewable energy and raw materials.

But this process is not free. Producing in Europe is more expensive, and this has a direct impact on the economy: it puts pressure on corporate margins, may translate into higher prices for consumers and requires the deployment of massive public subsidies. Here emerges a central tension that will mark the future of the continent: to what extent autonomy can be gained without losing competitiveness in a globalised market.

At the same time, Europe is trying to reduce its dependence on the United States in key areas such as technology, payment systems and defence. However, the risk is replacing one dependency with another: critical minerals from third countries, new technological dependencies or the growing weight of large subsidised corporations. The challenge, therefore, is not only to change suppliers, but to fundamentally rethink an economic model that until now has been based on structural dependencies.

Catalonia: periphery or strategic node?

In this new scenario, Catalonia’s role is not obvious, but neither is it minor. It has a solid industrial base and a strategic geographical position in southern Europe that make it a natural candidate to become a relevant logistics and production node. Ports, infrastructure and a diversified business fabric can work in its favour in a process of reindustrialisation that seeks proximity and resilience.

However, this opportunity coexists with important structural limitations. High fiscal pressure and the lack of full economic decision-making capacity can act as a brake at a time when attracting investment is key. Added to this is a deeper problem: the imbalance between wages and the cost of living. When purchasing power is eroded, the domestic market weakens, and without robust internal demand, any industrial strategy loses solidity.

For this reason, the question is not only whether Catalonia can take advantage of this new stage, but under what conditions it will do so. It can be an opportunity if high value-added industry is attracted and the productive fabric is strengthened with greater decision-making capacity. But it can also be a risk if only costs are assumed and structural dependency is maintained. Ultimately, it is not enough to be part of the European map: there must be real room to define one’s own rules of the game.

Real autonomy or political narrative?

Europe wants to regain control over key areas such as energy, technology, defence and finance, but all these sectors are deeply intertwined with global interests. In this context, the risk of capture by large corporations or lobbies is not minor, especially within a system that often responds to dynamics of crony capitalism that distort political decisions. Recent history confirms it: major economic changes do not always liberate; they often redefine dependencies.

For this reason, the real question is not only to produce more or diversify suppliers, but to guarantee real sovereignty. This implies effective control over financial flows, tangible energy independence, technological autonomy and political capacity to define one’s own strategies. Without these pillars, autonomy is incomplete and may end up being only a well-constructed narrative. For Catalonia, the challenge is especially delicate: to take advantage of this new window of opportunity without becoming trapped in a new architecture of dependency.

The world is changing, and with it the rules of the game. Europe is moving, but the key question is whether we will move with judgement or be dragged along. Understanding these changes is not optional: it is essential to protect our savings, make informed decisions and build an economic future with more control and less dependency. Because true autonomy begins when we understand the system… and decide how we want to play within it.

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