Africa: kicking out Western colonialism

A growing number of African nations are pushing the US and France out of the continent while welcoming China and Russia. The use of coercion and military power that characterises Western imperialist doctrine is being replaced by a new model of cooperation that seeks mutual benefit rather than the hegemony of one party.

“The struggle of the African people across the continent, particularly in the Sahel, is not an isolated event. All over the African continent, they are rising. The whole continent is burning right now. So we have not seen the last of the African popular masses overthrowing governments. We’ve only seen the beginning. They’re kicking France out, and the United States will be next,” declared journalist and activist Eugene Puryear on 19 September 2023 during protests against US and French imperialism and warmongering in the Sahel on the UN General Assembly opening day in New York.

In West African countries such as Niger, Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Chad, protests against French colonialism and coups d’état against Western vassal governments are spreading, with new administrations emerging that heralded a new path to self-determination and sovereignty.

Arikana Chihombori-Quao, former permanent representative of the African Union to the United States, claimed that the recent military coups in Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea were part of the first phases of an “African revolution” against Western neocolonialism. She added that this wave of military interventions is a reaction to the West’s ongoing “plunder of the continent’s natural resources.”

US to withdraw its troops from Chad and Niger

France was in the crosshairs, but as Puryear predicted, the US would soon follow suit. A few months later, the US government has announced that it will withdraw its troops from Chad and Niger as African countries question their role in the fight against terrorism.

In early April, Pentagon Press Secretary Patrick Ryder stated that AFRICOM is in talks with Chadian officials about a plan to “reposition some US military forces from Chad”, but that “this is a temporary measure as part of an ongoing review of our security cooperation, which will resume after the 6 May presidential elections in Chad.”

Niger hosts a major US air base in the city of Agadez that is used for a variety of military operations, including manned and unmanned surveillance flights. As for Chad, the US has Special Operations Forces troops stationed at the French base.

A paradigm shift from coercion to cooperation

The Western colonialist or neocolonialist model has been characterised by the use of coercion and military power to achieve its objectives and impose its political and economic agendas under the pretexts of ensuring political stability and the fight against terrorism, often to the detriment of the interests and sovereignty of the recipient countries of this pattern of “democracy.

In this context, we are witnessing how many countries, not only in Africa, are opting to establish new relations with other international actors such as China and Russia, which, unlike Western countries, offer an alternative based on cooperation and respect for their sovereignty.

China, in particular, has established a significant presence across the African continent through massive investments in infrastructure, natural resources and economic development through the Belt and Road Initiative. These investments are made in exchange for facilitating its exports of goods and access to raw materials necessary for the growth of its economy.

Similarly, Russia has sought partnerships in security, energy and natural resources. Through defence cooperation and investment in the energy sector. As has happened in Niger, where after French and US troops were driven out, the new government junta has turned to Russia for security.

On the other hand, the West’s loss of credibility in terms of human rights and international law as a result of the wars imposed on the African continent and in the Middle East to maintain its economic hegemony under the guise of the fight against terrorism, or its unconditional support for the genocide in Gaza, only accelerate a process of change towards a multipolar world that, for now, seems unstoppable.

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The US House of Representatives has approved another 57 billion euro aid package for Ukraine and a further 24.7 billion euros for Israel, but who will benefit from this money – the people suffering from armed conflicts or the Military Industrial Complex?

After months of stalled funding by a group of Republican lawmakers, in a rare weekend session, the US House of Representatives approved an additional package of some 89 billion euros in assistance for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan on Saturday.

The three foreign aid items that were voted separately will provide 57 billion euros for Ukraine, 24.7 billion euros for Israel and 7.6 billion euros for security in the Indo-Pacific region, including billions for Taiwan. The package also includes a ban until March 2025 on funding to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), which provides vital assistance in Gaza.

The bulk of this aid will go to weapons support, including new weapons systems for the Ukrainian and Israeli militaries directly from US defence contractors, as well as to resupplying US and allied weapons arsenals. Let’s not forget that the Biden administration is about to approve the sale of up to 50 F-15 fighter jets to Israel, in a deal expected to exceed $18 billion.

According to the official rhetoric of President Joe Biden’s administration, this money is an urgent and necessary sacrifice at a time when threats and wars besiege US allies. Republican opponents of the bill argued that these budget items should be tied to addressing national border security problems and the country’s growing debt burden, warning against spending more funds, many of which are channelled directly to the arms industry.

The skyrocketing profits of war

The military assistance package approved last weekend is the latest in a string of major subsidies or taxpayers’ money recycling into the arms industry since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, which has become a gold mine for the US and European MIC. This should come as no surprise, as it is often the case in every armed conflict.

According to a study by GlobalTimes, US defense contractors received almost half – $400 billion – of the $858 billion earmarked in the 2023 defence budget. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the largest Wall Street-listed companies in the sector have accumulated share price gains of 24 billion euros.

Moreover, US weapon sales abroad rose sharply last year, reaching a record 223 billion euros, 56 per cent more than in 2022, according to State Department data.

As for the rest of NATO, the decision of the main members to increase their investment in defence due to pressure from the United States has boosted the growth projections of many multinationals in the weapons industry which, in some instances, have registered increases of up to 150% in the stock market and profits of more than 300% over the previous year, as in the case of Germany’s Rheinmetall.

Spain is experiencing the largest increase in military spending in the last 40 years. The defence budget already represents 23% more than in 2022, making it the item with the highest growth in state spending. Defence companies such as Indra, Navantia and Santa Bàrbara de Sistemas have made huge profits.

When taking into account the genocide in Gaza and the fact that the war in Ukraine has been more than lost for months, it is hard to understand how this new funding will benefit anyone, beyond the defence industry and the pockets of the politicians who are linked to it. But as BlackRock employee Serge Varlay said: politicians are easy to buy, and war is good for business.

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Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia “threatened” to sell European debt in retaliation if the G-7 confiscated the $300 billion in Russian assets frozen by the European Union and the United States, according to sources consulted by Bloomberg

It is no secret that countries outside the Western sphere have long been closely watching the use of economic sanctions against Russia, amid concerns that these same tools of economic warfare could be used against them.

It is an economic siege designed to attack the Russian economy on all fronts – destroying its funding capacity and commandeering foreign reserves – that has become the most obvious example of how the US-led global economic system is being used to isolate and punish any country that poses a threat to US hegemony.

This is causing many states to question this hegemony and take steps to create a multilateral financial system to shield their economies. They are also pushing for de-dollarisation to decouple their economies from dependence on the dollar.

The importance of debt

Beyond de-dollarisation, the main reason the dollar is in danger is the large fiscal deficit in the United States. This has led to massive indebtedness, which is sustainable as long as the world continues to have confidence in the ability of the US to pay its obligations.

If this confidence is lost, investors and countries that now buy their debt through Treasury Bonds could look for alternatives to diversify their currency reserves, causing the US economy to collapse. Hence, the alarm generated by the possibility of Saudi Arabia turning its back on the petrodollar.

European Union member states are in an even worse situation because, unlike the United States, they do not have ‘their’ petrodollar and therefore cannot print money without consequences. In other words, the United States has the equivalent of an “opaque credit card” with which, at least as long as oil continues to be sold in dollars, it can maintain indebtedness that would be unsustainable for the European Union.

Saudi Arabia makes a move

Leaving aside the possible illegality of confiscating Russian reserves, using these funds would not only be illegal but could generate a major crisis of confidence in the Western-dominated international banking system, which is not exactly overburdened with credibility. If countries that feel threatened withdraw their reserves, this would be a paradigm shift with global consequences.

In this context, it is not surprising that yesterday’s Bloomberg article revealed that Saudi Arabia’s finance minister told his G7 counterparts (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the US, and the US) that the Kingdom would sell some of its European debt in retaliation if the $300 billion in Russian assets frozen by the EU and the US were confiscated. The Saudi stance was seen as a “veiled threat”, say unnamed sources consulted by Bloomberg.

According to Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia’s warning is likely to have galvanised opposition from some EU member states against a more forceful approach, despite US and UK pressure for outright seizure. If anything, the warning seems to have worked, watering down initial calls for stronger measures.

For its part, a representative of Riyadh has denied the facts described by the anonymous sources, telling Bloomberg that it was not its government’s style to make such threats. Even so, explaining that the likely impact of any seizure of assets against Russia was possibly indicated to the G7 countries.

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The Western political class and its mainstream media have repeatedly claimed sanctions would bring Russia down to its knees, and yet, the economic siege has been mostly ineffective and counterproductive. While the Russian economy and its war machine are thriving, the main European economies have collapsed. What has gone wrong?

Since the beginning of the armed conflict in Ukraine in 2014, the United States and its vassal states have imposed unprecedented sanctions and trade restrictions on Russia. These measures were intended to sink the Russian economy, dismantle its war machine and limit its ability to finance the war.

Today’s sanctions against Russia go far beyond the traditional sanctions that the United States has used since the end of World War II to “punish” any country that threatens its hegemony on the global geopolitical chessboard, historically targeting the banking system and elites. Yet, they have become the most glaring example of a failure to achieve the desired results through the imposition of economic sanctions.

This Western economic siege was designed to attack the Russian economy on all fronts. On the one hand, to castrate its financing capacity by requisitioning half of its foreign currency and gold reserves, nearly 400 billion euros, and to make it impossible for it to pay its foreign debt in dollars, even if it is willing and able to do so, in order to force a default.

Moreover, the US control over SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication), as well as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB), coupled with the hegemony of the petrodollar, allowed them to isolate Russia from the Western-led global economic system, as they had previously done against Iran when the US unilaterally withdrew the nuclear deal after breaching it from day one.

On the other hand, they wanted to curb its hydrocarbon exports and thus limit its ability to finance the war. However, while Western European economies collapsed and even went into recession, the Russian economy grew by 3.6 per cent in 2023 and is expected to grow by another 2.6 per cent in 2024, according to IMF data.

Similarly, despite Western media propaganda constantly repeating that Russia was running out of ammunition and other military supplies, the combined military-industrial capacity of the entire Western bloc and some of its client states, such as South Korea, Japan and Israel, remains far below that of Russia. They cannot even maintain the production needed to fuel the US proxy war in Ukraine, let alone produce enough ammunition for a direct confrontation against Russia.

The so-called international community

Western propaganda rhetoric also has us believe that the international community supports sanctions against Russia. It should be noted that this so-called “international community” only includes the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and perhaps Australia, Japan and the occasional Micronesian island. It therefore does not include the large part of the international community who is either against the sanctions or prefers to remain neutral.

This has been reflected in the failure of the ‘real’ international community, including China and India, to follow through on Western sanctions, which has been key to maintaining Russian oil exports. Even towards the European Union and the United States, with the full knowledge of the two Western actors, thus consolidating the hypocrisy of “do as I say, not as I do”.

The same EU has continued purchasing record volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia. This, while the US enriched itself by tripling its EU LNG exports and selling it at a much higher price than Russia, while becoming the world’s largest LNG exporter. All thanks to the economic sanctions and sabotage of the North Stream pipelines.

A new trade and monetary paradigm

Other than those related to the energy sector, the most obvious reasons for the failure of trade sanctions on Russia revolve around implementation issues. Complex supply chains, gaps in exports of dual-use goods and the reluctance of companies to completely discontinue their business with the Russian market have established alternative trade corridors through bordering and related countries in Russia.

In the monetary sphere, the temporary convertibility of the rouble to gold at a fixed price did not mean a return to the “gold standard“, but it became key to recovering and stabilising the rouble’s value after the fall experienced by sanctions. A revaluation of the rouble against the dollar even allowed the Central Bank of Russia to lower interest rates to avoid excessive appreciation of the state currency.

After most Western governments banned imports of Russian gold, China started buying Russian gold in record numbers. In July 2022 alone, it had already imported gold worth 109 million euros, an increase of 750% compared to the previous month and 4,800% compared to the same period in 2021.

Over the past decade, Russia and China have also initiated de-dollarisation programmes, signed de-dollarisation agreements, implemented alternative interbank communication protocol systems to SWIFT and created digital currencies linked to their central banks (CBDCs).

The West has lost all credibility

Leaving aside the hypocrisy of the economic sanctions and the background of the coup d’état orchestrated by Victoria Nuland in Kyiv in 2014 that triggered the current armed conflict in Ukraine, the West lost all credibility as a moral authority decades ago, if it ever had any.

Without wishing to make a compilation of all the wars imposed by the United States and its “allies” over the last decades and justified on a pack of lies, we cannot ignore the current illegal military occupation of countries such as Syria and Iraq by the United States, likewise by Israel in Syria, Lebanon and Palestine. It is quite obvious that international law and the sovereignty of nations are only relevant and respected when it suits the West.

If anyone still had any doubts, the political and military support for the ongoing genocide in Gaza has surely vaporised the last ounce of integrity left in the Western moral compass. The complicity of the collective West in bankrolling this massacre is nothing short of a criminal endeavour worthy of a Nuremberg tribunal. Clare Daly, MEP for Ireland, being one of the few white doves in a European Parliament full of war hawks when calling out Ursula von der Leyen as “Frau Genocide”.

Given the West’s blatant hypocrisy on human rights and international law, it is hardly surprising that some of its corporations are simply pretending to comply with the sanctions, while behind closed doors they are doing everything they can to circumvent them. Nor would it be logical to expect the international community to follow the orders of the geopolitical equivalent of a school bully that is increasingly losing its strength when confronted by a multipolar world.

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As the life expectancy of the world’s population lengthens and the birth rate declines, new approaches are needed to address social and economic challenges. A study by the World Economic Forum details the principles to be followed to ensure social well-being and prosperity amid this demographic paradigm shift.

The success of socio-economic development is often accompanied by an ageing population. In addition to improvements in nutrition, medicine, sanitation, education and economic well-being that extend the life expectancy of the population, there is a reduction in the birth rate, either because of the exodus of rural populations to large cities or because people have other priorities.

The fact is that the world is ageing fast. People over 60 years of age already represent 11% of the world’s population and, by 2050, this figure will rise to 22%. In Spain, it is expected that by this date there will be 23.3 million people over 50, half of the population.

This will have a major economic and social impact. As life expectancy lengthens, the proportion of the larger population that is economically dependent increases, while at the same time, fewer people can contribute to paying the pensions of an ageing population.

In other words, it becomes difficult to guarantee the welfare of this ageing population. According to data from the World Health Organisation, while life expectancy has increased by more than 6 years from 2000 to 2019, healthy life expectancy has increased by just over 5 years.

It is therefore necessary to implement new measures to ensure that the longevity economy is not at odds with the well-being of the entire population and has a positive impact amidst the changing global demographic landscape.

The 6 principles of the longevity economy

The report presented by the World Economic Forum acknowledges that it is not easy to address longevity issues globally, as each country has a different reality: various pension and retirement systems, divergent retirement ages and different choices by gender or profession. However, it proposes a set of six principles to which companies, governments and societies can subscribe.

1. Ensuring financial stability across key life events. Nearly 40 per cent of the world’s population faces financial instability due to unplanned career interruptions, unexpected illness or retirement and would find it impossible or very difficult to access emergency cash within 30 days. Two-thirds of the population are worried about not having enough money for normal monthly expenses and half would run out of savings within a month if they lost their income, while a third would do so within a week.

   Therefore, public-private partnerships should be encouraged to design policies and programmes that protect people from falling into poverty as a result of key life events and provide workers with access to financial savings and insurance vehicles, so that there is a financial cushion and no danger of outliving savings.

2. Provide universal access to financial education. Only 33% of the world’s population is financially literate, contributing to economic inequalities that are strongly correlated with inequalities in life expectancy. In other words, a large proportion of citizens lack the necessary skills to manage their finances effectively.

   Financial literacy is a necessary skill that is essential in everyday life. It is easier to make the right decisions about managing a household, planning savings, applying for credit or taking out a mortgage if we have a minimum level of financial literacy. Consequently, there is a need for comprehensive and unbiased financial education to enable people to make informed financial decisions.

3. Prioritise healthy ageing as the basis for the longevity economy. The main reason why older people leave their jobs before reaching retirement age is declining health. Eighty per cent of adults in developing countries are worried about the cost of medical expenses and suffer from illness for a fifth of their lives.

   The focus needs to be on equitable access to health services that can facilitate the well-being of both the individual and society at large through prevention and care. By seeking to delay or prevent the onset of diseases, especially chronic diseases and accidents, because of their financial impact on the individual and society.

4. Evolve jobs and lifelong skill-building for a multigenerational workforce. Globally, up to 25% of people aged 55 and over want to work, but cannot because they have difficulty finding opportunities. Ageism or technological barriers are some of the impediments they encounter that cause them to be pushed out of the system no matter how much they want to continue working.

   Demographic changes and technological innovations require occupations and training to adapt and evolve, allowing people to extend their working years as they wish. Continuous training and lifelong learning should be commonplace for individuals and enterprises and supported or promoted by government and organisations.

5. Design systems and environments for social connectedness and purpose. The study stresses the importance of social connectedness. Socially isolated, older people are at greater risk of illness and premature death. Numerous studies have scientifically proven the correlation between loneliness and illness.

   Encouraging the design and promotion of systems and environments for social connectedness can mitigate these effects. At the same time, ageism must be combated to avoid this double discrimination that isolates people over 50 from society and can lead to poverty.

6. Address longevity inequalities, including across gender, race and class. Pensions are not distributed equally, with women receiving, on average, 26% less in retirement pensions than men. Within the same country, there are situations of inequality in life expectancy depending on the income level of citizens, or their ethnicity.

   Advocacy for equal pay and pensions, as well as support for informal carers, are some crucial elements to ensure that financial security and the benefits of longevity can be more accessible to all.

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El producte interior brut (PIB) és la mètrica principal que es far servir per mesurar el rendiment econòmic d’un país. No obstant això, aquest indicador presenta limitacions significatives i sovint no reflecteix el benestar real de les persones. Per analitzar l’economia en termes de benestar econòmic i social efectiu, diversos organismes han proposat algunes alternatives que poden ajudar a guiar les polítiques públiques cap a unes economies més sostenibles i que ofereixin una millor qualitat de vida.

El PIB representa el valor total de tots els béns i serveis produïts en un país durant un període de temps determinat i es va establir com el mètode principal per mesurar l’èxit econòmic d’un país a partir de la dècada del 1950. Generalment, es calcula trimestralment, però la dada que s’utilitza per mesurar la mida d’una economia i fer comparacions entre països és el PIB anual. 

Hi ha diverses maneres de calcular el PIB, però el mètode més utilitzat pels bancs centrals i instituts nacionals d’estadística mesura tres components principals: consum, inversió i despesa governamental, més la diferència entre exportacions i importacions. Això és útil per obtenir una visió general de l’activitat econòmica, però també té algunes limitacions importants.

Per una banda, no mostra com està distribuïda la riquesa dins d’un país ni té en compte el benestar social. Per tant, no reflecteix la desigualtat que pot ser causada per una riquesa concentrada en un petit percentatge de la població i no pren en consideració factors com la salut, l’educació, la seguretat o la qualitat de vida de la població.

Per l’altra, no contempla la sostenibilitat ni l’impacte negatiu en el medi ambient d’algunes activitats econòmiques. Així mateix, tampoc comptabilitza l’economia submergida ni el treball domèstic no remunerat que representen una gran part de l’activitat econòmica de molts països.

Per abordar aquestes limitacions, s’han desenvolupat diverses alternatives que van més enllà del paradigma econòmic dominant amb l’objectiu d’analitzar l’economia i presentar una imatge més real en termes del benestar econòmic i social del conjunt de la població.

Mesurant una economia més humana

Diversos organismes locals i internacionals defensen que és necessari adoptar una actitud reflexiva en vers les normatives que determinen els models i indicadors usats per analitzar el creixement econòmic i així millorar la fiabilitat de la informació que es fa servir en la presa de decisions. Amb aquest objectiu, han sorgit diverses propostes alternatives per a mesurar la qualitat de vida, com són:

• Índex de Desenvolupament Humà (IDH). Creat per les Nacions Unides, combina indicadors de tipus econòmic, com per exemple els ingressos per càpita ajustats per la paritat de poder adquisitiu, amb altres variables de salut com poden ser l’esperança de vida i l’educació. D’aquesta manera s’ofereix una visió més holística del desenvolupament humà que facilita l’anàlisi de les diferències en la qualitat de vida entre països.
• Índex de Progrés Genuí (IPG). De la mateixa manera que l’IDH, té en compte factors com la distribució de la riquesa, la degradació ambiental i el treball no remunerat, però comptabilitza a la baixa els costos derivats de la degradació ambiental i la pèrdua de recursos naturals, les desigualtats de renda, el deute extern i la delinqüència.
• Índex de Benestar Econòmic Sostenible (IBES). Similar a l’IPG, l’índex de benestar econòmic sostenible valora el treball domèstic no remunerat i té en compte la degradació ambiental, la desigualtat de renda i les despeses relacionades amb el crim i l’atur per comptabilitzar factors que no es mesuren en el PIB. 
• Índex de Felicitat Nacional Bruta (FNB). Desenvolupat a Bhutan, l’índex FNB posa l’èmfasi en la importància del benestar emocional i social. Es basa en nou factors per mesurar la prosperitat de la població: benestar psicològic, salut, educació, ús del temps, diversitat cultural, bon govern, vitalitat comunitària, ecologia i nivell de vida. 

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Brussel·les proposa els pilars legals per garantir l’acceptació de l’euro digital i la seva coexistència amb els diners en efectiu. Els bancs comercials seran els encarregats de distribuir i limitar les quantitats d’aquesta divisa digital. Però respectaran la privacitat i l’anonimat dels ciutadans?

La Comissió Europea i el Banc Central Europeu han presentat un paquet de propostes legislatives per convèncer al Parlament Europeu i al Consell de la UE de donar suport al llançament de l’euro digital. Les autoritats europees justifiquen la necessitat d’una CBDC  perquè cada vegada hi ha més ciutadans -un 55% segons les seves enquestes- que prefereixen pagar a través de mètodes electrònics.

Es tracta d’un conjunt de mesures que busquen oferir un mètode de pagament alternatiu i complementari als diners en efectiu per als ciutadans i les empreses. El Banc Central Europeu decidiria qui podrà fer servir l’euro digital, com es farà servir internacionalment, i els bancs comercials s’encarregarien de distribuir i limitar les quantitats d’aquesta nova divisa digital. 

Per una banda, es vol garantir que els euros en efectiu continuïn sent accessibles i àmpliament acceptats per totes les persones i negocis de tota la zona euro i, per l’altra, s’estableix el marc legal per a un possible euro digital com a complement dels bitllets i monedes en euros, que serà d’acceptació obligatòria en els comerços de l’eurozona, “excepte entre comerciants molt petits que optin per no acceptar pagaments digitals”.

Tranquil·litzar als bancs i als ciutadans

Segons les autoritats europees, les propostes presentades permetrien als ciutadans emmagatzemar fins a 3.000 euros digitals en moneders segurs que garantiran la privacitat. “Tenir un moneder digital en euros recarregat en el telèfon -o un altre dispositiu- serà el mateix que tenir monedes i bitllets en la butxaca. Podràs pagar amb la mateixa facilitat. Ni tan sols serà necessari tenir connexió a Internet“, apuntava durant la roda de premsa Valdis Dombrovskis, vicepresident executiu de la Comissió, però afegia que “la quantitat estaria subjecta a un límit màxim com a manera de protegir l’estabilitat financera i evitar sortides substancials de diners dels bancs”.

En aquest context, la protecció de la privacitat és una de les qüestions que més preocupen a l’Eurocambra, a les associacions de consumidors i als ciutadans que van deixar comentaris durant el període de consulta pública del projecte. El vicepresident de la Comissió afirma que no hem de patir per la nostra privacitat i protecció de dades que “les dades personals estarien totalment protegides. Els bancs, ni tan sols el BCE, no veurien ni podrien rastrejar les dades o detalls personals de la gent. Els pagaments sense connexió oferirien un nivell de privacitat similar al que ofereix avui els diners en efectiu”.

Això, però, és un punt contenciós entre els proponents i crítics d’aquestes mesures legislatives. Mentre que possibilitar pagaments fora de línia per a petits imports, en els quals no quedin registrats les dades del pagador i el beneficiari, pot garantir un cert nivell de privacitat, la tecnologia permet reconstruir aquestes transaccions si les autoritats pertinents ho requereixen. 

De la mateixa manera, no es pot garantir l’anonimat que ofereixen les transaccions en efectiu. Com admetia Christine Lagarde, presidenta del Banc Central Europeu, “L’anonimat total -com el que ofereix els diners en efectiu- no sembla una opció viable. Contravindria altres objectius de política pública, com garantir el compliment de les normes contra el blanqueig de capitals i lluitar contra el finançament del terrorisme. I també faria pràcticament impossible limitar l’ús de l’euro digital com a vehicle d’inversió”.

Centralització vs. descentralització

Tot i que l’euro digital podria ajudar a reduir l’economia submergida i el risc de frau gràcies a la completa traçabilitat sobre la major part de les transaccions, els governs tindrien un control sobre els nostres diners sense precedents. La qual cosa els permetria saber exactament com els gastem i els atorgaria la capacitat de parar pagaments o confiscar-los, com va passar amb les protestes dels camioners contra el govern canadenc. 

En aquest context, les criptomonedes ofereixen una alternativa a la banca centralitzada controlada per l’Estat, democratitzant la creació de moneda mentre dilueixen el monopoli bancari tradicional. A més, en termes pràctics, la introducció de les CBDC no acaba de ser entesa del tot per una ciutadania que, de fet, ja fa transaccions digitals bancàries i en el comerç diàriament a través dels mètodes de pagament existents.

I és precisament en aquest punt, on la suposada necessitat d’introduir un nou mètode de pagament, o encara més important, on els conceptes de privacitat, anonimat i llibertat que ara tenim amb els diners físics i les criptodivises poden ser decisius en determinar si la proposta d’un euro digital no és res més que una solució a la recerca d’un problema -almenys pel que pertoca als interessos dels ciutadans- que està destinada al fracàs a no ser que sigui imposada per la força.

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In the first two months of the year, households withdrew 18 billion in deposits from Spanish banks in search of a better return on their money. Despite the ECB’s interest rate hike, large bank customers are receiving improved remuneration for their savings in dribs and drabs.

According to data published by the European Central Bank (ECB), of the 19 countries in the eurozone, banks in Spain and Cyprus were the only ones that began the year by reducing the remuneration they pay on deposits to their customers. While in the eurozone as a whole banks raised the rates on new deposits to an average of 1.65%, Spanish banks went from a remuneration of 0.64% in December 2022 to 0.59% in January this year.

The reaction was not long in coming as Spanish households responded to the rise in prices and the low profitability of deposits by withdrawing 13 billion from banks in January, and a further 5 billion in February. The balance stood at 986.2 billion, down 1.8% in the first two months of the year. The subsequent stock market collapse of Spanish banks triggered by the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank and the collapse of Credit Suisse has only aggravated the loss of confidence in the liquidity of traditional banks and their ability to make the public’s money work for them.

The timid reaction of Spanish banks

The president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, encouraged bank customers to go to their banks to demand an increase in interest rates: “Bank customers have to have this conversation with bankers and bankers have to be sensible if they want to keep their customers”.

Well, it seems that after the talks, even though some banks have reacted discreetly and with the odd campaign to improve the profitability of deposits and avoid the flight of customers, these deposits still do not offer higher yields than Treasury Bills or other products.

Although the ECB is not letting up, and the rise in interest rates is already at 3.5% in the eurozone, the median remuneration of new deposits from Spanish banks is still far from the rates offered by other European countries. And this situation is likely to remain so in the near future, since according to calculations made by elEconomista‘s financial sources, Spanish banks can only pay a maximum of 1.15% for their deposits in the next twelve months without ceasing to be profitable.

Households diversify savings

Even with the gradual reopening of the economy, the rising cost of living has evaporated a large part of the savings cushion accumulated by households during the sanitary crisis. In this context of precariousness, coupled with the low returns banks are offering on deposits, it is not surprising that people are looking for more profitable investment products or alternatives to protect their savings in the face of inflationary pressure.

The stock of household financial assets has been reduced by €53.431 billion, or -2%, a fall not seen since the early 2020s. Even so, the purchase of safe-haven assets such as precious metals, particularly gold, continues to boom. In this context, the purchase of gold is no longer seen only as an investment or a speculative instrument, but as one of the few options people have to safeguard their money.

Likewise, in the face of depressing economic growth forecasts, the rickety profitability of deposits and the possibility of a new banking crisis, products that ensure the short-term purchasing power of investors to achieve profits well above average inflation in Spain, seem increasingly attractive.

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Gold demand reached record highs over the past year and shows no sign of abating in 2023. Central bank purchases of gold are off to the best start to a year in more than a decade.

Concerns about contagion from the banking crisis in the United States, financial market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty have further heightened interest in gold, which is considered a safe-haven asset against any economic uncertainty. The upward trend is reflected by consumers, private investors, governments and central banks.

According to the latest data published by the World Gold Council (WGC), on a year-on-year basis, central banks have recorded net purchases of 125 tonnes of gold at the end of February this year. This is a figure not seen since at least 2010 and continues the upward trend experienced during 2022, ending the year with a record 1,136 tonnes of gold sold.

Therefore, this confirms that the gold market continues to receive support from the central banks of countries that want to diversify their reserves to shield their economies, which leads us to expect that the price of gold will continue to rise significantly throughout this year. The price of gold has risen by 9.2% in the first quarter of the year, a revaluation that is in line with Bank of America’s forecast of a 10% increase in the price of gold by 2023.

The big gold buyers

The increase in gold purchases has been driven largely by the relentless demand from China’s central bank and the Turkish central bank, with 25 and 22 tonnes added respectively in February, for a cumulative total of 2,050 and 587 tonnes representing 3.7% and 33% of their international reserves.

On the other hand, despite the ban on selling Russian gold in Western markets, the Central Bank of Russia continues to increase its gold reserves at a good pace. Although no specific data on its purchase schedule is available, it has disclosed that at the end of February 2023 it had 2,330 tonnes of gold reserves, 31 tonnes more than at the end of January 2022, representing 24% of Russia’s international reserves.

Gold purchases by central banks of countries such as Uzbekistan (8 tonnes), Singapore (7 tonnes) or India (3 tonnes) were added to the February net purchases figure. Kazakhstan’s central bank was the exception, reducing its gold reserves by 13 tonnes to a total of 342 tonnes. A deviation from the trend followed by the other banks need not be significant, given that central banks purchasing gold from local sources are often frequent sellers of gold.

Whether gold is accumulating as a reserve asset in the face of escalating hostilities in the US-China trade war, sanctions against Russia or instability in the Western banking sector, the sharp increase in buying has not gone unnoticed by geopolitical analysts. Could this accumulation of gold be a sign of a change in the international monetary system? Of a return to the gold standard? Of a new global crisis? Whatever the case, it is clear to central bankers that when things go wrong, nothing is as safe as gold.

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Modern wars are rarely explained solely by territorial or ideological disputes. If we look at the map of current conflicts with perspective —Ukraine, the Middle East, Venezuela, or even the growing interest in the Arctic— a recurring pattern emerges: energy, natural resources, and monetary power. 

In a global economic system dominated by the dollar and hydrocarbon trade, control of oil and gas remains decisive. But in recent years, a new factor has been added: competition for tangible resources, such as gold, strategic minerals, or even food. In this context, geopolitics and economics once again move hand in hand.

After World War II, the Bretton Woods agreements placed the dollar at the center of the international monetary system. Initially, the U.S. currency was linked to gold, but this system broke down in 1971 when the United States suspended the convertibility of the dollar into precious metal. From that moment on, the global monetary system was reorganized around another fundamental element: oil.

With the emergence of the petrodollar system, international hydrocarbon trade began to be predominantly denominated in dollars. This meant that any country wishing to buy oil had to hold reserves in this currency.

This mechanism generated a structural demand for dollars across the planet and consolidated the financial hegemony of the United States. The system allowed Washington to finance large deficits and public debt, while the world continued to use its currency to buy energy. In this sense, energy became one of the invisible pillars of global monetary power.

De-dollarization: an emerging threat

For decades, this system functioned with relative stability, but in recent years movements have emerged that challenge this financial architecture. Countries such as China, Russia, and India have begun to promote bilateral trade agreements that reduce dependence on the dollar. This process, known as de-dollarization, seeks to create a more multipolar economic system.

Economic sanctions driven by the United States have also accelerated this trend. When a country can be expelled from the international financial system or blocked from the SWIFT system, many governments begin to look for alternatives to protect their economic sovereignty.

In this context, control of energy becomes even more relevant. If oil or gas were to be traded massively in other currencies, the dominant role of the dollar could be eroded.

Ukraine: energy and geopolitics in Europe

The war in Ukraine has shown to what extent energy remains a central element of international politics.

Before the conflict, Europe depended heavily on Russian gas to fuel its industry and ensure energy supply. The Russian invasion and Western sanctions broke this balance and triggered a profound reconfiguration of global energy flows.

Europe has attempted to replace Russian gas with liquefied natural gas from the United States, Qatar, and other producers. This shift has had significant economic consequences, with a notable increase in energy costs for European industry.

The war in Ukraine is therefore much more than a territorial conflict: it is also a key episode in the reorganization of the global energy map.

Middle East: the energy center of the planet

The Middle East remains one of the most sensitive regions in the world for an obvious reason: it concentrates a very significant share of global oil and gas reserves, making it a global energy epicenter and a key territory for international economic balances.

Any military escalation in the region —whether between Israel and Palestine, involving Iran, or in Lebanon— has an immediate impact on global energy markets, driving prices up and generating uncertainty in economies dependent on hydrocarbons.

In this context, beyond the media narrative focused on the political and humanitarian conflict in Gaza, a structural factor often overlooked emerges: the significant natural gas deposits discovered off the coast of Gaza. This energy reserve, known for decades, could alter the region’s energy balance and reduce external dependencies. Control over these resources is not only an economic issue but also a key element in the geopolitical struggle for energy dominance in the Eastern Mediterranean. Thus, the conflict acquires a strategic dimension that goes far beyond borders and national identities.

Moreover, strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez Canal are essential for transporting oil and gas to Europe and Asia, establishing themselves as true bottlenecks of global energy trade. Control over these trade routes is therefore a central element of international geopolitics and a constant source of tension between powers.

Venezuela: oil, sanctions, and power

Another clear example is Venezuela, the country with the largest oil reserves in the world, with nearly 300 billion certified barrels. This energy abundance, far from guaranteeing stability, has turned the country into a central actor on the global geopolitical stage, often subject to external pressures and highly dependent on its own extractive model.

Over recent decades, the South American country has been subject to economic sanctions and geopolitical tensions that have deeply affected its oil industry, limiting investment, deteriorating infrastructure, and reducing production. Control over Venezuelan energy production and access to its resources remain decisive factors in relations between Caracas, Washington, and other international actors, highlighting the extent to which energy is a tool of global power.

The return of tangible assets

However, current geopolitics no longer revolves exclusively around oil. For decades, the global economy has operated on a financial architecture based on debt, financial markets, and trust in fiat currencies —a system sustained more by expectations than by real value. But in recent years, a gradual shift has begun to question this model.

This shift points toward the recovery of the value of tangible assets —that is, physical resources with intrinsic value that do not depend solely on market confidence. We are talking about energy, precious metals, strategic minerals, or food: essential elements for the functioning of the real economy and increasingly decisive in a context of geopolitical tensions and resource scarcity.

Among these assets, gold stands out. For millennia, it has been a universal store of value and continues to play a key role in the global monetary system. Despite the end of the gold standard, central banks continue to accumulate this metal as a strategic asset to strengthen their reserves, especially in emerging countries seeking to reduce their dependence on the dollar and gain financial sovereignty in an increasingly uncertain world.

But gold is not the only critical resource. The war in Ukraine highlighted the extent to which food and fertilizers are key elements for global stability, becoming a new geopolitical weapon. Russia and Ukraine, major grain exporters, saw how the conflict disrupted supply chains and strained international food markets, causing price increases and putting the food security of many countries dependent on these imports at risk.

Greenland and the Arctic: the future of resources

In this new geopolitical scenario, territories that until recently seemed peripheral have gained increasing importance. Greenland and the Arctic concentrate potential reserves of oil, gas, and strategic minerals, including rare earth elements essential for the technological industry and the energy transition, placing them at the center of new global power dynamics.

Moreover, the progressive melting of the Arctic is opening new trade routes that could profoundly transform global maritime trade, shortening distances between continents and altering traditional logistical flows. It is no coincidence that powers such as the United States, Russia, and China have intensified their interest in this region, aware that control over resources and new routes will be key in the economy of the future.

A world returning to real resources

The geopolitics of the 21st century seems to be moving toward a model in which physical resources once again take center stage. Energy, metals, strategic minerals, and food are becoming fundamental pillars of the economic security of states, in a context marked by uncertainty and growing global competition. Increasingly, power is no longer measured solely in terms of financial capital or currencies, but in the ability to control the resources that sustain the real economy.

In this scenario, many analysts point to a paradigm shift: the transition from an economy dominated by financial capital to one more closely linked to tangible assets. Modern wars rarely have a single cause, but if we overlay the map of current conflicts with that of the planet’s energy and mineral resources, the coincidences are too evident to be accidental. Energy, the dollar, and natural resources are part of the same equation of power that defines international relations.

Understanding this relationship is key to interpreting current geopolitics and anticipating the movements of states in an increasingly tense world. In a context of geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and transformation of the international monetary system, understanding the role of strategic resources is more important than ever.

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