Which assets are considered to be stores of value?

Es consideren dipòsits de valor aquells actius, divises i mercaderies que no es devaluen amb el temps. L’or i altres metalls preciosos han estat històricament els dipòsits de valor per excel·lència, mentre que en les últimes dècades s’han fet evidents les grans deficiències de les monedes fiduciàries.

Com indica la Investopedia, “un dipòsit de valor és essencialment un actiu, mercaderia o divisa que pot guardar-se, recuperar-se i intercanviar-se en el futur sense que es deteriori el seu valor” quan l’intercanviem per productes o serveis: si avui equival a deu pomes, passat un temps haurem de poder intercanviar-lo per, com a mínim, deu pomes també.

L’or i altres metalls preciosos han estat considerats al llarg de la història els dipòsits de valor per antonomàsia perquè la seva vida útil és pràcticament il·limitada. I, si comprovem l’evolució del preu de l’or en les últimes dècades, veurem que una unça ha passat de cotitzar per sota dels 300 dòlars quan va entrar en circulació l’euro l’any 2002 a superar els 1.900 dòlars en l’actualitat.

En l’altre extrem, productes peribles com les pomes són pèssims dipòsits de valor perquè en pocs dies es descomponen i perden tot el seu valor. Tot i que determinats productes bàsics com els aliments poden pujar de preu temporalment en funció de la situació del mercat, el seu caràcter perible impedeix considerar-los dipòsits de valor.

Els diners moderns suspenen com a dipòsit de valor

Òbviament, l’euro i la resta de les monedes fiduciàries són dipòsits de valor molt deficients perquè no es revaloren al mateix ritme que els productes i serveis que permeten adquirir. Encara que les nostres monedes haurien de ser un dipòsit de valor raonablement estable, la inflació fa que el cafè que fa uns anys compràvem en un bar per un euro avui dia ens costi bastant més. Els nostres diners es deprecien dia rere dia.

Richard Nixon va posar fi al patró or l’any 1971, que fins llavors obligava als països del Fons Monetari Internacional (FMI) a mantenir un tipus de canvi fix respecte al dòlar i a la Reserva Federal dels Estats Units a recolzar la seva divisa amb or. Des de llavors, utilitzem monedes fiduciàries, és a dir, monedes que són de curs legal però que no estan recolzades per cap bé valuós. Tots els bancs centrals poden fabricar diners segons la seva conveniència i el seu únic aval és la confiança dels ciutadans.

Com és lògic, si la quantitat de diners en circulació augmenta a un ritme més elevat que els béns i serveis que es poden adquirir amb ells, el desequilibri entre l’oferta i la demanda fa que s’apugin els preus. Per tant, els nostres diners es devaluen.

Una moneda raonablement estable és essencial per a la salut de l’economia. Una unitat monetària que funciona malament com a dipòsit de valor desincentiva l’estalvi i dificulta el comerç. Els seus efectes nefastos són evidents si donem un cop d’ull als casos d’hiperinflació que han viscut alguns països al llarg de la història.

Els metalls preciosos com a valor refugi

Al llarg de més de dos mil·lennis, moltes economies han utilitzat l’or i altres metalls preciosos com a moneda de canvi per la seva durabilitat, relativa escassetat i fàcil transport. A més, en les últimes dècades l’or ha tingut un paper important com a valor refugi. La seva demanda ha tendit a disparar-se en moments d’incertesa econòmica, com demostren les dades de l’any passat, el de major demanda des de 2011. La llarga experiència amb l’or permet avalar la seva capacitat per exercir com a dipòsit de valor a llarg termini.

En general, altres actius com els béns immobles, les obres d’art, les antiguitats o alguns objectes de col·lecció també han demostrat que poden tenir aquest rol. Tot i que el seu valor pot caure en moments puntuals, tendeixen a revaloritzar-se a llarg termini gràcies a una demanda més o menys constant i una oferta molt limitada.

El seu gran inconvenient respecte a l’or és que es tracta d’actius molt poc líquids: és difícil vendre’ls de manera immediata si volem fer-ho per un preu raonable. A més, aquests mercats exigeixen un bon coneixement i es ressenten especialment en les crisis econòmiques, quan més es tendeix a recórrer als dipòsits de valor.

I els criptoactius?

Més difícil és valorar si els criptoactius arribaran a considerar-se algun dia com a dipòsits de valor, ja que són massa recents. És cert que el bitcoin es basa en el principi d’escassetat, una característica pròpia dels dipòsits de valor: cada any es genera un número limitat de bitcoins i existeix un topall predeterminat. No obstant això, com tants altres criptoactius, el seu gran inconvenient és que manca d’un valor intrínsec. Gairebé tot el seu valor és ara com ara subjectiu, la qual cosa és terreny adobat per a la volatilitat.

Això sí, en la mesura que el bitcoin sigui acceptat de manera massiva com a mitjà de pagament i s’empri en un nombre creixent de transaccions, el seu valor s’enfortirà i augmentaran les probabilitats que arribi a ser un dipòsit de valor a llarg termini, més enllà de volatilitats puntuals.

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En un moment d’elevada incertesa econòmica, amb tensions geopolítiques globals, inflació persistent i una confiança minvant en les monedes fiduciàries, molts estalviadors es pregunten com protegir el seu patrimoni. I cada cop més, la resposta apunta en una direcció molt concreta: l’or.

Aquest metall preciós, amb milers d’anys d’història com a reserva de valor, torna a ocupar un lloc central en les estratègies de protecció financera. I no és casualitat. Més enllà del seu simbolisme, l’or ofereix una sèrie de característiques que el fan únic en temps d’incerteses.

L’or no és un actiu financer convencional. No depèn de cap emissor, no comporta risc de crèdit i no es pot crear arbitràriament, com sí que passa amb les divises. És un actiu tangible, escàs i universalment reconegut. Aquestes qualitats el converteixen en un refugi natural davant la inflació, la incertesa i els cicles econòmics adversos.

Quan les borses cauen, quan els bancs centrals imprimeixen diners a gran escala o quan el valor dels diners es dilueix, l’or manté —i sovint incrementa— el seu valor. I això és exactament el que està passant.

El moment actual

Durant els darrers quatre anys, el preu de l’or s’ha revalorat prop d’un 85 %, i només en el darrer any ha pujat més d’un 30 %. Es tracta d’una tendència clara i contundent, impulsada per la debilitat estructural del dòlar, la previsió de recessió als Estats Units i una inflació global que no s’ha pogut contenir del tot. Aquestes xifres no són promeses de futur: són fets que han cridat l’atenció tant d’inversors institucionals com de particulars.

Amb data d’agost de 2025, l’or cotitza prop dels 3.380 dòlars per unça, assolint màxims històrics. Paral·lelament, els bancs centrals —especialment el de la Xina— acumulen or mes rere mes, amb nou mesos consecutius de compres, en una clara estratègia per reduir la seva exposició al dòlar i blindar el seu sistema monetari.

També la demanda individual es manté elevada: a l’Índia, tot i el preu elevat, la compra de joies d’or continua sent massiva, reafirmant el metall com una reserva de valor familiar per excel·lència.

I què diuen les previsions?

Les principals entitats financeres internacionals apunten cap a una continuïtat de la tendència alcista en el valor de l’or durant els pròxims mesos i anys:

• HSBC preveu una mitjana de 3.215 $ l’unça el 2025, amb pics de fins a 3.600 $.
• Goldman Sachs va més enllà i estima que, si s’agreuja la recessió, podríem veure valors superiors als 3.800 $.
• J.P. Morgan apunta a una mitjana de 3.675 $ al quart trimestre d’aquest any, amb possibilitats reals de superar els 4.000 $ el 2026.
• D’altres informes, com el de WisdomTree, arriben a estimar un escenari extrem que podria portar l’or fins als 5.000 $ per unça si es desencadenen nous xocs inflacionaris o polítics a escala mundial.
  

Tot plegat dibuixa un escenari on l’or consolida el seu paper com a actiu estratègic per preservar valor i oferir estabilitat en carteres cada cop més exposades a riscos sistèmics.

I per als petits inversors?

Avui, invertir en or ja no és patrimoni exclusiu de grans fortunes ni de bancs centrals. Qualsevol inversor amb criteri i visió pot accedir-hi de manera segura i transparent, sense necessitat d’intermediaris opacs ni productes financers complicats.

Existeixen opcions accessibles per a tots els perfils: des de la compra directa de lingots o monedes, fins a la inversió fraccionada amb custòdia professional, o sistemes híbrids que permeten gestionar el teu or com un actiu patrimonial real, físic i assignat.

El més important no és només adquirir or, sinó com i amb qui ho fas. Els inversors més exigents busquen:

• Transparència contractual i preus clars.
• Or físic 100 % assignat, no paper ni promeses. 
• Custòdia segura i auditada, amb accés immediat al teu actiu si el necessites.
• Tracte personalitzat, amb acompanyament expert, no simples processos automàtics.

Invertir en or avui significa protegir el valor dels teus diners en un entorn on tot fluctua… menys el que és real. És una forma de diversificar amb seny, de refugiar-se sense renunciar al control, i de construir un futur sòlid sobre un actiu que ha resistit totes les crisis conegudes. L’or no canvia. Però la manera d’accedir-hi sí. I això ho canvia tot.

Un tancament amb perspectiva

Invertir en or no és cap moda passatgera ni una resposta impulsiva davant la por. És una decisió estratègica, arrelada en la història i avalada pels fets. En un món on la confiança en les institucions financeres es veu sacsejada, on les polítiques monetàries són cada cop més intervencionistes i on el valor dels diners es dilueix any rere any, l’or emergeix com una de les poques certeses tangibles que queden.

Aquest metall no promet rendiments espectaculars a curt termini. No ven la il·lusió d’un enriquiment ràpid. El que ofereix, però, és una forma sòlida de conservar valor, de garantir independència financera i de resistir els embats que ja estan transformant el sistema econòmic global.

Mantenir una part del teu patrimoni en or no és una aposta, és una assegurança. És blindar els teus estalvis davant escenaris que escapen al teu control: inflació desbocada, caigudes borsàries, crisi de deute sobirà, pèrdua de poder adquisitiu o canvis geopolítics imprevisibles.

A més, fer-ho ara, en un moment en què els bancs centrals acumulen reserves i el mercat consolida una tendència alcista, és actuar amb anticipació. No quan tot s’enfonsa, sinó quan encara tens marge per decidir.

Per això, si estàs pensant en com protegir el que has guanyat amb esforç, si no vols deixar els teus estalvis exposats a riscos sistèmics i vols començar a construir una estratègia patrimonial amb cara i ulls, l’or mereix un espai al teu horitzó. No és una resposta per a tothom. Però potser sí que és la resposta que tu estaves buscant.

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In an increasingly volatile and inflationary economic context, futures trading is once again gaining prominence. Although it seems like a modern and complex instrument, futures trading is a commercial mechanism with thousands of years of history. Civilisations such as the Egyptians and Romans already agreed on prices for goods before the harvest, thus protecting themselves from future fluctuations.

Today, this system remains fully in force and sophisticated, especially in organised futures markets such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) or Euronext. In these markets, all kinds of assets can be traded: agricultural commodities (such as wheat, coffee, sugar, or cotton), precious metals (such as gold, silver, or copper), energy sources (such as oil, natural gas or electricity), international currencies (dollar, euro, yen) as well as stock indices and other derivative financial products.

The variety of tradable assets and their standardisation make these markets an essential tool for companies, institutional investors and governments seeking to hedge against price risks, diversify portfolios or secure the supply of strategic resources.

But what exactly is a forward purchase?

A forward purchase is a contract between two parties who agree, in the present, on the price of a product or asset that will be delivered or settled at a future date. Unlike an immediate purchase, physical delivery or payment is not made at the time of signing, but later, according to the agreed schedule.

These types of transactions are carried out in regulated markets, with standardised rules that guarantee legal and financial security for both parties. To protect the agreement, both parties must deposit an initial guarantee (called a “margin”) that serves as a commitment to execute the transaction.

Long positions and short positions

In financial jargon, the terms long position and short position are fundamental to understanding how futures trading works. Taking a long position means committing to buy an asset on a specific future date; conversely, having a short position means committing to sell that asset at that time. These positions do not necessarily involve physical possession of the product—in fact, the contract is often settled before the expiry date through financial compensation.

This mechanism allows both producers — who want to secure the sale price — and industrial buyers or distributors — who want to guarantee a stable purchase price — to protect themselves against market uncertainty.

The futures contract must include all the essential information to be enforceable:

• The asset or product being traded (e.g., 1,000 barrels of crude oil).
• The specific quantity.
• The agreed price (set at the time of signing).
• The expiry or execution date.
• The form of settlement (this may be by physical delivery or by price difference).
• The place and conditions of delivery, in the event of physical exchange of goods.

This system allows conditions to be set well in advance, which is particularly valuable in sectors where prices can change radically in a matter of days.

The advantages of forward purchases

• Stability in times of inflation. In times of inflation or scarcity, forward purchases are a tool for protecting against price volatility. Agricultural companies, manufacturers, distributors, and even investors can secure today the price of a product they will need tomorrow. 
• More reliable planning. Being able to anticipate costs or revenues facilitates financial and logistical planning, reducing the risk of unforeseen events that can affect an entire supply chain.
• Agile access and moderate cost. The daily operation of futures markets ensures high liquidity and a certain ease of trading or unwinding positions. In addition, the initial entry cost (the margin) is usually relatively low compared to the total value of the contract, allowing large volumes to be traded with less capital.

But they also carry risks

Despite the obvious benefits, forward purchases are not a magic formula and carry significant risks that must be carefully considered before making any move:

• Market risk: If the actual price of the asset on the expiry date is lower than the agreed price, the buyer will have to pay more than the current value, incurring a loss. Conversely, if the price rises, and you are the seller, you may be forced to sell below the market price. This can directly impact the profitability of the transaction and, in serious cases, destabilise a company’s budget.
• Binding contractual commitment: Futures contracts cannot be broken without consequences. Once formalised, they are binding, and failure to comply with them can result in significant financial penalties or loss of the deposit. It is therefore essential to carefully assess your ability to comply with the agreed conditions before signing anything.
• Technical complexity: Futures markets are highly specialised environments. Understanding how settlement, leverage, collateral and daily adjustments work requires solid prior training. Trading without knowledge can easily lead to wrong or hasty decisions, especially if they are confused with short-term speculative trades.
• Volatility and leverage: In some cases, futures are used with leverage, i.e. trading with borrowed money or with a small guarantee for a large volume, which can amplify both gains and losses. A small variation in price can have a very large impact on the final result of the trade.

A simple example

Imagine a coffee roasting company that needs large quantities of beans every month. If it fears a price increase due to climatic phenomena or geopolitical instability, it can choose to buy coffee futures. It agrees on the price now, secures the stock, and avoids unpleasant surprises in three months’ time.

This same system is used worldwide with wheat, oil, sugar, gas, gold and even electricity.

A strategy, not a gamble

Forward purchases are much more than a financial tool: they are a risk management strategy with great potential to protect the economic stability of a company or sector. In skilled hands, they make it possible to anticipate adverse scenarios, protect profit margins, secure supply and reduce dependence on market fluctuations.

When prices fluctuate sharply —due to causes such as inflation, geopolitical tensions, logistical disruptions or droughts— this type of operation can mean the difference between surviving or losing control of costs. That is why many large companies use futures as a regular feature of their financial forecasting plans.

However, it should be remembered that they are not a gamble or a speculative game for those who do not master the field. They are a complex strategy that requires knowledge, rigour and discipline. And like any good strategy, they should not be applied blindly. It is necessary to understand them, assess their scope and adapt them to the real needs of each business or operation.

After all, futures markets offer no absolute guarantees, but they do offer something very valuable: the ability to anticipate, manage and mitigate risk in an increasingly unpredictable world.

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The world’s most admired investor is sitting on a record amount of cash while stock markets continue to reach new highs. How does he decide whether the market has become too expensive? The answer lies in a formula so simple that anyone can understand it.

Imagine having more than 300 billion dollars available to invest and, despite that, deciding to wait. That is exactly what Warren Buffett has done in recent years while stock markets have continued to reach record highs.

While almost everyone else is rushing to buy, he prefers to stay on the sidelines. Not because he has lost confidence in businesses or because he believes a major crisis is just around the corner, but because he believes that, more often than not, the best investment is patience.

It is this way of thinking that has turned Buffett into a true legend of finance.

The oracle of Omaha

At 94 years old, Warren Buffett remains one of the most influential figures in the world of investing. As the head of Berkshire Hathaway, he has built a fortune that consistently places him among the wealthiest people on the planet. Yet his reputation is not based solely on his wealth.

Buffett is admired because he has achieved something extraordinarily difficult: delivering outstanding returns for more than six decades without being carried away by market fashions or periods of euphoria.

Perhaps that is why he is known around the world as the Oracle of Omaha, the American city where he still lives in the same house he bought more than sixty years ago. His philosophy is as simple as it is demanding: invest only when the price makes sense.

In fact, one of his best-known quotes perfectly sums up his approach to investing: “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get”.

A formula anyone can understand

To determine whether the market has become too expensive or still offers attractive opportunities, Buffett often looks at a remarkably simple indicator.

It compares the total value of all publicly traded companies with the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). In other words, it measures what investors are willing to pay for businesses against the wealth generated by the real economy.

The idea is almost common sense. If the value of all listed companies grows much faster than the economy that supports them, it is reasonable to ask whether prices may have risen too far.

The bakery example

Imagine a bakery that generates half a million euros in annual revenue. It has loyal customers, a stable business and still has room to grow. But if someone asked us to pay five million euros to buy it, we would probably pause for a moment before saying yes.

Not because the bakery is a bad business.But because we would want to know whether that price is justified. The Buffett Indicator asks exactly the same question, but applies it to the stock market as a whole.

So, what does it tell us today?

Today, the Buffett Indicator in the United States remains well above its historical average. That does not mean a market correction is imminent, nor does it mean that stock prices will collapse tomorrow. Markets can remain highly valued for long periods of time.

What it does suggest is that investors are paying a very demanding price for companies’ future earnings and that, when this happens, the margin for error tends to become much smaller.

Like any indicator, it is not infallible. Large American multinational companies generate a significant share of their revenues around the world, which means that comparing them solely with the U.S. GDP has its limitations. That is why economists see it as a compass rather than a crystal ball.

A lesson that goes beyond the stock market

Perhaps Warren Buffett’s greatest contribution is not this indicator, but the way he thinks about investing. While many people try to predict what the stock market will do next week, he continues to ask himself a much simpler question: does the price I’m paying really make sense?

It is a way of thinking that applies just as much to buying shares as it does to purchasing a home, investing in a business or making any important financial decision.

Because, in the end, markets can change their mood from one day to the next. But common sense remains one of the most profitable investments anyone can make.

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Quan parlem d’or, parlem de valor. Però no tot l’or és igual: el que realment en determina el preu i l’ús és el grau de puresa. I aquí és on entren en joc dues maneres de mesurar-lo: els quirats (k) i les mil·lèsimes (‰).

Tot i que a les botigues de joieria sentim parlar d’or de 18 o 24 quirats, en el món de la inversió i la compravenda internacional, el sistema més habitual és el de les mil·lèsimes, una mesura molt més precisa.

Què vol dir la puresa de l’or?

La puresa de l’or indica la proporció d’or pur present en una peça respecte al total del seu pes. L’or pur —és a dir, sense barreja amb altres metalls— és químicament conegut com a Au i pertany a la família dels metalls nobles. Això vol dir que no s’oxida ni es degrada amb el temps, no reacciona fàcilment amb altres elements i té una resistència excepcional als àcids.

Aquestes propietats fan de l’or un metall especialment valuós, escàs i durador, però també massa tou per a alguns usos pràctics, com ara la fabricació de joies o monedes de circulació. Per això sovint es combina amb altres metalls com el coure, la plata o el pal·ladi, per augmentar-ne la resistència o alterar-ne el color.

Quirats: la mesura tradicional en joieria

El sistema dels quirats divideix la puresa en 24 parts. Així:

• 24 quirats (24 k): or pur (100%)
• 22 quirats (22 k): 91,6% d’or + 8,4% d’altres metalls
• 18 quirats (18 k): 75% d’or + 25% d’altres metalls
• 14 quirats (14 k): 58,5% d’or
• 9 quirats (9 k): 37,5% d’or

L’or de 18 quirats és el més habitual en joieria a Europa, ja que ofereix un bon equilibri entre qualitat, durabilitat i cost. En canvi, en països com l’Índia o els Emirats Àrabs Units, l’or de 22 quirats és més comú, especialment per peces tradicionals.

Mil·lèsimes: la mesura estàndard en la inversió en or

En l’àmbit de la inversió i la indústria, s’utilitza un sistema decimal molt més precís: les mil·lèsimes, que expressen la quantitat d’or pur per cada 1.000 parts.

• 999,9‰ (o “quatre noves”): or d’altíssima puresa, usat en lingots i monedes d’inversió. És el més proper a l’or pur real.
• 995‰: estàndard mínim per considerar un lingot com a “d’inversió” segons les directrius internacionals.
• 916‰: equival aproximadament a l’or de 22 quirats.
• 750‰: equival a 18 quirats.
• 585‰: equival a 14 quirats.

El 999,9‰ ja es considera or pur en els mercats internacionals. És el que trobem en lingots, monedes bullion i altres productes d’inversió reconeguts.

Com es presenta l’or d’inversió?

L’or d’inversió es comercialitza principalment en lingots i monedes. Els lingots poden pesar des d’1 gram fins a 1 kg o més, tot i que els formats més habituals en l’àmbit minorista són de 2,5 g, 5 g, 10 g, 20 g, 50 g i 100 g.

Les monedes bullion són emeses per bancs centrals o cases de la moneda oficials, i combinen valor de mercat amb una certa col·leccionabilitat. Exemples coneguts:

• Krugerrand (Sud-àfrica): 1 unça (31,1 g) d’or de 22 què
• Maple Leaf (Canadà): or pur 999,9‰
• Philharmoniker (Àustria): 999,9‰
• American Eagle (EUA): 22 què amb pes total d’una unça
• Britannia (Regne Unit): 999,9‰ des de 2013

Totes aquestes monedes han de dur gravades el pes i la puresa exactes, fet que garanteix la seva acceptació al mercat global.

I com s’aconsegueix l’or pur?

L’or no es troba a la natura en estat pur, sinó en forma de granets, vetes o barreges amb altres materials. Per convertir-lo en or d’inversió o d’alta qualitat, cal passar-lo per processos de refinament que poden incloure fosa a altes temperatures, processos químics amb àcids i posterior purificació.

Aquest or pur és el que es fa servir per fabricar lingots i monedes d’alt valor. Però en joieria, com ja hem dit, la puresa sovint es redueix expressament per motius tècnics o estètics.

Per què és important conèixer la puresa de l’or?

Saber si estem davant d’un or de 18 k, 22 k o 999,9‰ no és només una qüestió tècnica, sinó una garantia de valor, transparència i seguretat. Tant si el comprem com a inversió, com si es tracta d’una joia o herència familiar, identificar correctament la puresa ens ajuda a prendre decisions informades.

A més, en un món on l’or torna a guanyar protagonisme com a refugi davant la incertesa econòmica, conèixer el seu valor real és més rellevant que mai.

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For years, stock buybacks by large companies, especially financial institutions, have been the norm. These operations can bring legitimate strategic benefits, but they can also be used to disguise accounting results and manipulate stock prices.

For most of the 20th century, share buybacks were considered illegal because they were believed to be a way of manipulating the stock market. It was in the 1980s that neoliberal policies allowed share buybacks to become one of the most popular financial engineering tools.

What is a stock buyback?

A share or stock buyback is a financial transaction whereby a company buys back its shares and redeems or disposes of them. The company’s overall financial position does not change, but by reducing the number of outstanding shares, each shareholder’s stake in the company increases.

Companies often argue that they do this in order to give value to shareholders, since this activity can increase the share price. In some cases, share buybacks can be used to prevent a shareholder or group of shareholders from acquiring sufficient shares to take control of the company.

Another advantage of share buybacks for shareholders is that, unlike dividend remuneration, as it is an indirect remuneration to shareholders this transaction has no tax implications unless they choose to sell the shares, in which case they would be taxed if they realised a capital gain. On the other hand, while the dividend is a distribution of past profits, when a share buyback materialises, it is in anticipation of future profits.

Potential market manipulation

The problem arises when these buybacks are carried out not to genuinely improve the financial situation of the company, but to make the shares look more attractive to short-term investors or to reward the managers of these companies who have bonuses linked to share performance.

This practice has become widespread and has overtaken dividend payouts, especially in the United States, where many corporations have prioritised short-term returns to management and shareholders overinvestment in the company’s future. One of the clearest examples of the negative consequences this business strategy can have is the crisis facing the Boeing company, where in a recent US Senate hearing its executives were accused of ‘strip-mining’ the company for profit.

Financial institutions have been one of the sectors that have made the most use of this practice, especially after the 2008 financial crisis and after many of these institutions were bailed out with public money. Stock buybacks have been financed by using accumulated profits or, in some cases, by increasing debt. Often, these operations are carried out at the expense of access to credit for businesses and consumers, improved services to customers, higher salaries for employees or through job cuts.

Critics also point out that stock buybacks distort market reality. Under the pretext of increasing shareholder returns or attracting new shareholders, buybacks can be used to disguise companies’ accounting results and artificially increase share prices, which should reflect their real economic situation. The need for strong regulation and transparency to prevent malpractice is obvious, yet the process of extracting value from capital seems likely to remain focused on short-term profit and to the detriment of productive investment.

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The volatility of the markets in August 2024 has shown, once again, that reality is stubborn and the safe haven par excellence is gold. Bitcoin is the most well-known and safest cryptocurrency out there, and has generated huge gains in recent years, but when panic hits Bitcoin seems to follow the market trend while gold appreciates.

There are those who say that Bitcoin is digital gold. It’s a way of saying that Bitcoin is very secure, and it is. But the truth is that only gold is gold and, this August, it has become very clear. Last week, gold again broke another historical record, reaching 2,531 dollars per ounce, that is, around 80 euros per gram. Currently, the rise has corrected slightly, but everything indicates that it will continue to rise, and it has already done so by almost 17% so far this year. What is happening?

Bitcoin, digital gold?

Between the 4th and 5th of August, the international markets suffered a shock that caused immense losses in many assets. Bitcoin had, in those days, a behaviour similar to high-risk capital values, that is, it went down following the market. The World Gold Council has analysed the evolution of assets in those days, very specifically comparing gold and Bitcoin. And the conclusion is strong: it is very volatile. Therefore, nothing digital gold because Bitcoin does not (apparently) have one of the essential conditions to be considered a safe haven value: being able to withstand market turbulence. It’s a great asset for big gains, it’s been proven for a long time, but it doesn’t work as a safe haven.

In the same period, and throughout the month of August, gold has been revalued. Because, historically, gold gains value in difficult times. When everything is volatile, physical gold is always there. This is what the American financier Michael Burry, famous for having predicted the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008, must have thought. On August 4, seeing how the markets were evolving, Burry made a large purchase of gold. This fact put the whole market on alert and pushed the price up.

Will the recession come?

Gold has continued to rise due to the possible rate cut by the American Federal Reserve, which could put the world’s first economy into recession. It’s a long-announced recession that never seems to end. At the moment, gold continues to gain value, that is to say, big investors are preparing for the curves.

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Gold remains the ultimate safe-haven asset for people who want to protect their savings from persistent inflation. However, as with any investment, it is important to know and consider the pros and cons of investing in this precious metal.

Gold’s ability to offer protection against inflation and maintaining or increasing its value in economic crises, makes it a must-buy if we want to diversify and make our savings profitable.

This fact has been confirmed since inflation began to rise in 2021, reaching its highest level (7.4%) in 30 years in March 2022, causing many households to suffer with resignation a drop in their purchasing power and the loss of a large part of their savings.

Although inflation has slowed down, it remains at 3.6% in Catalonia, according to the latest data issued by the National Statistics Institute (INE). This is a rate of inflation that neither the low yields of bank deposits nor the Treasury bills have been able to compensate for.

In contrast, over the last five years, gold has experienced a spectacular increase in value, doubling its price. As for 2024, during the first six months of the year, its value has risen by 12%, following the upward trend of 2023, outperforming most of the main investment assets and reaffirming itself as the most valuable asset on the market.

However, although buying gold can be a very good option to protect our savings and can help us obtain liquidity in case of need, it is crucial to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of putting our money into this type of investment.

The good news

• Holds its value: Gold continues to be the ultimate safe-haven asset and an unparalleled store of value that tends to appreciate in the face of market uncertainty. 
• Protection against inflation: As explained above, gold has proven to be a good hedge against inflation and the devaluation of our savings.
• High liquidity: Thanks to its intrinsic value, it is a highly liquid asset that can be easily sold, making it easy to convert into cash in case of need.
• Investment diversification: The price of gold often moves inversely to the stock and money markets, acting as a hedge in periods of volatility and helping us to diversify our investment portfolio.

The not-so-good

• Barriers to entry: Investing in physical gold can require a significant initial outlay. Although there are alternatives such as investment funds, not everyone has easy access to these options. At 11Onze Preciosos we make collective purchases so that we can get the best deals for all members of our community.
• It does not generate passive income: Unlike other investments such as shares or bonds, gold is an asset that does not generate dividends or interest. This means that, as a rule, investors do not receive regular income from owning gold. However, there are products such as Gold Seed, which can generate regular, passive income from gold buying.
• Storage costs: Physical gold needs secure storage such as safes or professional storage services. A safekeeping service ensures that your gold is protected and insured, but this comes at a cost. In return, at 11Onze Preciosos, when the time comes, we take care of selling the gold of our clients who have contracted a safekeeping service with us at the best possible price.

Preciosos 11Onze makes it easy to buy gold, at the best price and with total security. Give us a call and speak to one of our agents without compromise to clarify any doubts you may have and protect yourself from economic crises with the ultimate safe-haven asset.

The unexpected appearance of DeepSeek’s open-source Chinese AI model is shaking up Silicon Valley and global markets. Launched on 20 January, it offers comparable performance to the OpenAI flagship at a fraction of the cost, using less advanced microchips.

The launch of DeepSeek’s new model, just as Donald Trump was sworn in as US president on January 20, was no coincidence. China was sending the message that, despite Washington’s restrictions on the export of next-generation microchips to curb the technological development and competitiveness of Chinese companies, Beijing can be the world leader in AI.

A day later, Masayoshi Son, CEO of SoftBank, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, and Larry Ellison, chairman of Oracle joined the new Trump administration as it announced a private sector investment of up to $500 billion to fund infrastructure for artificial intelligence to outpace rival nations in this business-critical technology.

Impact on global stock markets

The White House announcement did not prevent the stock market plunge of companies such as Nvidia, one of the pillars of the technological revolution generated by AI and the main manufacturer of microchips in the supply of hardware for AI, which saw its shares fall by more than 15%, losing 589 billion dollars in a single day.

It was the biggest loss of value by a stock in the history of the stock market and relegated Nvidia to third place in the ranking, behind Apple and Microsoft.

Nvidia’s fall dragged down other technology giants and several companies linked to chips and semiconductors: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD -10.38%), Marvell (-19.11%), Broadcom (-17.40%) and Grail (-9.16%), Microsoft (-2.17). This turmoil also affected European stock markets, with significant falls in companies such as ASML (-8%), Schneider Electric (-10%) and Siemens (-5%).

Investors were concerned that DeepSeek’s innovative approach would lead to a collapse in demand for graphics processors and other components in data centres, which are essential for the development of AI.

A disruptive business model

One of the keys to the success of the Chinese AI model is the demonstration that the industry is capable of developing efficient and practical artificial intelligence without the need to rely on Nvidia’s advanced and expensive microchips. Thanks to Washington’s restrictions, the company was forced to use H800 model microchips, a less powerful version of those available to US companies.

In addition, DeepSeek claims that with its new technologies, it can reduce algorithm training costs by 75%, noting that it has invested only $7 million in developing its model, compared to the $50 million OpenAI has spent on ChatGPT. As a result, it can offer access to its interface for just $0.14 per million input tokens, far less than the $15 OpenAI charges for the same service.

The other pillar of DeepSeek’s success is its open-source approach, which allows any developer to modify and adapt the software to suit their needs. A business model that contrasts with the more restrictive uses that Western companies impose on their AI applications. It is therefore not surprising that, on Wednesday morning, DeepSeek became the most popular application overall, not just for AI, in the Apple and Google app shops.

DeepSeek’s breakthrough is proving that US technological hegemony in AI is no longer guaranteed. There is little doubt that sooner or later Washington will also impose bans and restrictions on this new Chinese competitor under the pretext of national security, as it has previously done with ZTE, Huawei and TikTok, but, ironically, the increasing aggressiveness of the US administration in the geopolitical framework to prevent the collapse of the empire is accelerating the development of technological, commercial and financial alternatives by other global players.

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Els ETF són uns productes financers que aquí es coneixen com a fons d’inversió cotitzats. Es tracta d’uns actius financers híbrids, entre els fons d’inversió tradicionals i les accions, que segueixen l’evolució d’un determinat índex de referència. 

ETF (de l’anglès exchange traded funds) o fons d’inversió cotitzats, són uns fons d’inversió que cotitzen en els mercats de valors. La característica principal d’aquests productes financers és que combinen la diversificació que ofereix una cartera d’un fons d’inversió amb la flexibilitat de la compravenda d’accions.

La seva política d’inversió consisteix a replicar un índex borsari: de renda fixa, de primeres matèries, d’un sector, etc., cosa que els fa molt atractius. D’aquesta manera són un producte molt utilitzat per invertir per tendències o temàtiques perquè, un cop agrupats els actius d’una tendència en un índex, els ETF en repliquen el comportament.

Operativa dels fons cotitzats

Quant a la seva operativa, és igual que la de les accions, ja que cotitzen durant tota la sessió borsària i tenen un valor liquidatiu que es publica al tancament de la sessió. És a dir, el seu valor real no es coneix fins al final de la jornada borsària.

Poden invertir en fons cotitzats tota mena d’inversors, tant institucionals com particulars, els quals poden comprar un ETF a temps real, al preu que fixi el mercat en cada moment. La cotització podrà variar al llarg d’una sessió borsària en funció de l’oferta i la demanda, com passa amb qualsevol altre valor cotitzat, cosa que facilita una gran transparència per als inversors. 

Tipus d’ETF

Encara que tots els ETF repliquen el comportament d’un índex de referència, això es pot portar a terme de diferents maneres: 

• ETF de renda fixa: es comporten de la mateixa manera que els títols o bons de deute, tant públics com privats.
• ETF d’actius monetaris: representen a actius de deute a curt termini i actius monetaris negociats en el mercat interbancari.
• ETF segons capitalització: pot ser petit, mitjà o gran segons la capitalització de les empreses que el conformen.
• ETF sectorial: repliquen índexs d’inversió d’un determinat sector.
• ETF segons l’estil de gestió: fons que inverteixen en empreses amb un cert valor o amb expectatives d’un bon creixement a mitjà o llarg termini. 
• ETF sobre divises: existeixen productes que repliquen l’evolució de les cotitzacions del mercat de Forex.

Els riscos que comporten els ETF

Tot i que hi ha ETF específics amb cobertura per minimitzar el risc de divisa, és important tenir en compte que els ETF no gaudeixen de cap garantia: com en el cas de qualsevol inversió en renda variable o fixa, hi ha un risc de pèrdua del capital invertit inicialment.

Invertir en ETF implica assumir un nivell de risc determinat que dependrà de la composició de l’ETF, de les fluctuacions del mercat i d’altres factors associats a la inversió en valors. Aquests actius d’inversió acostumen a ser fons de renda variable, excepte els que repliquen índexs de renda fixa, per la qual cosa, en general, presenten una volatilitat elevada. 

Si vols conèixer opcions superiors per rendibilitzar els teus diners, entra a Fons Garantits. Des d’11Onze Recomana et proposem les millors opcions del mercat.