During the first six months of the year, gold has outperformed most major investment asset classes, continuing the upward trend of 2023. Its price has reached record highs and has risen by 12% since the beginning of the year, cementing its reputation as a safe-haven asset in times of economic uncertainty.
Global gold demand (including OTC purchases) marked the strongest first quarter of the year since 2016, rising 3% year-on-year to 1,238 tonnes. This strong performance was driven by persistent central bank buying in the face of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, investment in the OTC market, and increased demand from Asian buyers that pushed the gold price to a record average of €1,934 per ounce.
In mid-May, it reached another all-time high of 2,259 euros per ounce, surpassing the previous record set in April, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked ahead to an expected rate cut, while the European Central Bank (ECB) made its cuts amid a stronger US dollar.
High global interest rates and a strong US dollar are often seen as a hostile environment for gold that has probably prevented its value from rising by even more than the 12% achieved since the beginning of the year.
In its analysis of gold’s performance in the first half of the year, the World Gold Council (WGC) believes that in the current economic context, “these factors have been offset by more dominant ones“, from continued central bank buying to strong Asian investment and resilient
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Outlook beyond the third quarter
WGC analysts believe that, as we move into the third quarter of the year and look ahead to the remainder of 2024, “gold could continue to move in a similar range to the last few months“.
Given that the price of gold has already risen by 12% and that the consensus of experts consulted by the WGC suggests a similar result for the full year, the agency reiterates that gold, seconded by contributions from other sectors, “can perform well even when, as expected, interest rates remain unchanged.”
Likewise, JPMorgan Chase & Co. expects the gold price to average €2,011 per ounce in the fourth quarter of the year, reaching a peak of €2,127 in the third quarter of 2025 due to the conflicts in the Middle East and the possible repercussions of the US presidential election.
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gràciess
Gràcies a tu, Joan!!!