The economy of panic

More and more economists are warning of an imminent financial collapse. But what lies behind this fear narrative? Beyond macroeconomic data, the real risk may be the human reaction: distrust, massive flight of assets, and the self-fulfilling prophecy. When the market believes everything is collapsing, that is often the moment it truly does.

We live in an economy driven as much by emotions as by data. Indicators matter, but confidence—or the lack of it—is the real engine. When a media-savvy economist announces an imminent crisis, they’re not just reporting; they’re shaping behaviour—of investors, consumers, and even governments. The economy, after all, is a living organism that reacts to the dominant narrative. If that narrative is fear, fear becomes monetary policy, a flight to safe havens like gold, and ultimately, economic reality. It’s the self-fulfilling prophecy at work.

This mechanism is even clearer in the digital era. Rumours of a “2026 collapse,” central banks hoarding gold, or fears of a dollar meltdown don’t just reflect data—they create it. Today’s markets are arenas of collective perception, where the economy plays out as much in charts as in social media headlines. In this landscape, narrative becomes an economic weapon capable of moving capital, reshaping expectations, and turning fear into market motion.

Fear as a strategy of power

Economic history shows that crises are not only the result of financial excesses but also of control strategies.

After 1929, panic allowed Wall Street to be restructured. After 2008, panic legitimized massive bank bailouts. And today, amid a global debt crisis, panic may justify new forms of financial control—such as state digital currencies (CBDCs) —which promise security but restrict individual freedoms.

Fear is not just an emotion; it’s a tool of economic governance. Central banks know this and use it to steer capital flows. When fear becomes monetary policy, financial democracy falls into recession.

The role of gold and lost confidence

It’s true that gold, as explained in many articles on La Plaça, is a historical safe haven. But the reason it’s breaking records today is not merely economic—it’s anthropological: it represents lost confidence in modern systems. Yet if massive gold buying is driven more by panic than by strategy, it may create a new bubble—a “confidence bubble.” The more people flee the system, the more unstable that system becomes.

That’s why, beyond hoarding gold out of fear for the future, we must also learn to manage panic. Invest with reason, diversify with knowledge, and understand that trust is an asset as valuable as gold itself.

Financial education as a vaccine

At 11Onze, we’ve often said that without financial education, we are vulnerable. Predictions of collapse work because many citizens don’t understand how economic cycles function.

Learning about finance is the best way to immunize ourselves against collective panic. The more we understand market mechanisms—how sovereign debt is created, how capital moves, how interest rates are set—the less power fear has to dictate our decisions. Perhaps the real collapse will not be economic but cognitive, when a society reacts before it understands.

Crises always come—but they also pass. What defines the maturity of a financial community is how it prepares, not how it panics. Panic breeds volatility; knowledge builds stability. And in that balance lies the key to preserving the economic freedom we all need.

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11Onze Recommends, at the request of the community, has managed to get the provider to further improve Litigation Funding: you can now access the product with family or friends to get higher returns on your savings. The returns are quadruple the average returns of Spanish banks.

Litigation Funding is one of 11Onze Recommend’s most requested products, a fact that gives us the strength to ask for improvements from our provider. In this regard, some users noted that the best yields are achieved for higher amounts, which is a barrier to entry for many people.

As 11Onze’s chief financial officer, Farhaan Mir, explains: “To access the 9% per annum you have to contribute 25,000 euros and many people don’t have these amounts, but they also deserve to be able to save. So we thought, what can we do? We can’t ask for the amount to be reduced, but we can ask for it to be contributed by several people, so that, several people in the same family, or a group of friends, can save together. Each one with their documentation, transferring their amount and receiving the corresponding earnings in their account. The only requirement is that the aggregate amount corresponds to the amounts set by the provider.

Quadrupling the returns offered by banks

This move by 11Onze Recommends gives its community access to a savings product unheard of in the country. In October 2023, Spanish banks increased the interest paid to their clients, but they remain the lowest-yielding banks in Europe, offering an average yield of 2.3%. Litigation Funding, therefore, almost quadruples what Spanish banks offer and does so with extra security, as the funds are insured to cover the principal.

Community-saving

11Onze is thus reinforcing its community vision by now offering community-saving. “You no longer have to save alone and miss out on the best offers because you don’t have enough money. This would be unfair. Everyone should be able to save”, says Farhaan Mir. The product offered by our UK provider has become one of the star savings products. To find out more about the product, you need to be a member of 11Onze and go to the Litigation Funding section on our website.

If you are already a member of La Plaça you can request more information from our provider.

A growing number of African nations are pushing the US and France out of the continent while welcoming China and Russia. The use of coercion and military power that characterises Western imperialist doctrine is being replaced by a new model of cooperation that seeks mutual benefit rather than the hegemony of one party.

“The struggle of the African people across the continent, particularly in the Sahel, is not an isolated event. All over the African continent, they are rising. The whole continent is burning right now. So we have not seen the last of the African popular masses overthrowing governments. We’ve only seen the beginning. They’re kicking France out, and the United States will be next,” declared journalist and activist Eugene Puryear on 19 September 2023 during protests against US and French imperialism and warmongering in the Sahel on the UN General Assembly opening day in New York.

In West African countries such as Niger, Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Chad, protests against French colonialism and coups d’état against Western vassal governments are spreading, with new administrations emerging that heralded a new path to self-determination and sovereignty.

Arikana Chihombori-Quao, former permanent representative of the African Union to the United States, claimed that the recent military coups in Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea were part of the first phases of an “African revolution” against Western neocolonialism. She added that this wave of military interventions is a reaction to the West’s ongoing “plunder of the continent’s natural resources.”

US to withdraw its troops from Chad and Niger

France was in the crosshairs, but as Puryear predicted, the US would soon follow suit. A few months later, the US government has announced that it will withdraw its troops from Chad and Niger as African countries question their role in the fight against terrorism.

In early April, Pentagon Press Secretary Patrick Ryder stated that AFRICOM is in talks with Chadian officials about a plan to “reposition some US military forces from Chad”, but that “this is a temporary measure as part of an ongoing review of our security cooperation, which will resume after the 6 May presidential elections in Chad.”

Niger hosts a major US air base in the city of Agadez that is used for a variety of military operations, including manned and unmanned surveillance flights. As for Chad, the US has Special Operations Forces troops stationed at the French base.

A paradigm shift from coercion to cooperation

The Western colonialist or neocolonialist model has been characterised by the use of coercion and military power to achieve its objectives and impose its political and economic agendas under the pretexts of ensuring political stability and the fight against terrorism, often to the detriment of the interests and sovereignty of the recipient countries of this pattern of “democracy.

In this context, we are witnessing how many countries, not only in Africa, are opting to establish new relations with other international actors such as China and Russia, which, unlike Western countries, offer an alternative based on cooperation and respect for their sovereignty.

China, in particular, has established a significant presence across the African continent through massive investments in infrastructure, natural resources and economic development through the Belt and Road Initiative. These investments are made in exchange for facilitating its exports of goods and access to raw materials necessary for the growth of its economy.

Similarly, Russia has sought partnerships in security, energy and natural resources. Through defence cooperation and investment in the energy sector. As has happened in Niger, where after French and US troops were driven out, the new government junta has turned to Russia for security.

On the other hand, the West’s loss of credibility in terms of human rights and international law as a result of the wars imposed on the African continent and in the Middle East to maintain its economic hegemony under the guise of the fight against terrorism, or its unconditional support for the genocide in Gaza, only accelerate a process of change towards a multipolar world that, for now, seems unstoppable.

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Food production generates one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet it is insufficient for millions of people suffering from food insecurity. Some studies advocate for a shift towards a more sustainable system, focusing on both human and environmental well-being.

A report by the World Economic Forum’s New Frontiers in Nutrition community, in collaboration with Accenture, calls for a significant shift in strategy to transform the global food system based on human and planetary health. A pathway to a sustainable food system that would enable people to lead happier, healthier and more productive lives.

It is an initiative that integrates the public, private and community sectors, focusing on increasing the availability, access, and uptake of nutritious food choices, while keeping sustainability goals in mind. It underlines the need for cross-sectoral collaboration to transform food systems and policies with the ultimate goal of achieving a more equitable and sustainable food landscape with improved global health outcomes.

The initiative details the steps to follow for healthier diets, with an emphasis on nutrient-rich, minimally processed and predominantly plant-based foods. Key suggestions include encouraging the production of organic foods that are affordable and accessible, while strengthening the link between food and health in consumer awareness.

It also advocates for facilitating a retail environment that makes nutritious choices the default option. Although most indicators of inadequate diets affecting the most vulnerable sectors of society focus on malnutrition, malnutrition is also defined by a lack of vitamins, minerals, fibre, and other key micronutrients.

An economic opportunity in transforming food systems

The World Economic Forum’s findings are in line with another global report by leading economists and scientists at the Food System Economics Commission (FSEC), which finds that existing food systems destroy more value than they create, especially because of environmental and health costs.

A poor diet is also linked to an increased risk of common mental illnesses. Depression alone costs the global economy $1 trillion per year in lost labour productivity.

In this context, a study by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) estimates that the hidden environmental, social and health costs of current agri-food systems amounted to an additional 11 trillion euros in 2020.

In this sense, shifting to a more sustainable global food system could generate up to 7.9 trillion euros of benefits per year, as well as improving our health and alleviating the climate crisis. The cost of the transformation would therefore be far less than the potential dividends, providing a better life for hundreds of millions of people.

The study proposes to divert subsidies and tax incentives from large-scale monocultures that are destructive and dependent on fertilisers, pesticides and forest clearance, to small and medium-sized producers. At the very least, as an alternative to the current system that pushes farmers to run large, intensively industrialised farms.

However, the main challenge of a transition to this new agri-food model is the rising cost of food. A paradigm shift that requires not only consumer awareness but also taking into account the current economic situation, unless we want to see farmers’ protests turning into a globalised popular revolt.

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In the last tender of the year, retail investors have turned to buying government debt. Households are seeking a return on their savings above the low remuneration offered by large banks for deposits, and are increasing their holdings of these assets to record highs. But are there other options that offer higher returns?

The last auction of the year of Treasury bills leaves 30% of government debt in the hands of individuals seeking a better return on their savings than that offered by banks for deposits. Although persistent inflation and rising interest rates have evaporated a large part of the savings accumulated by households during the sanitary crisis, the high yield on short-term government bonds has spurred the purchase of these assets.

While during the first two quarters of the year, Spanish banks suffered the biggest drain of deposits in Europe, the public increased its investment in the Treasury to over 28 billion euros in 2023, an unprecedented record. For the first time, Spanish households have become the main owners of Treasury bills, which account for almost one out of every three euros invested.

The high yield offered by short-term government bonds has reached 4% (3.7% in the last auction) compared to the 2.45% average offered by traditional banks for deposits. As for ten-year debt bonds, the yield surpassed 4% given the forecast that central banks would keep interest rates high for longer than expected.

A better return on your savings

The boom in the purchase of public debt is because, on the one hand, it responds to the needs of consumers at a time when traditional banks are not offering sufficiently attractive returns on savings and, on the other, to an apparent lack of alternatives readily available to the public.

This, however, is not exactly true. A product such as Litigation Funding, which 11Onze recommends, offers a higher fixed annual return than bank deposits and Treasury bills. In the short term, 1 or 2 years depending on the amount, it generates returns of between 9% and 11% with the peace of mind that an insurer covers our clients’ capital.

In this context, we should mention the safe-haven asset par excellence, gold. On 4 December, it reached its highest price ever, 2,100 dollars per ounce, and in the last 12 months, it has gone up by almost 11%, confirming itself as one of the best options for protecting our savings. Preciosos 11Onze makes it easy to buy gold, at the best price and with total security.

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Historical precedent has taught us that gold tends to rise in price in the face of geopolitical tensions. However, the gold price is multifaceted and rarely responds to a single trigger, but is driven by several factors. What geopolitical risks should be taken into account in the current context?

Despite some fluctuations during the year, the price of gold rose by 15% in 2023 to an all-time high of USD 2,130.20 per ounce. The US banking crisis, geopolitical tensions, war conflicts and the US Federal Reserve’s stance on maintaining interest rates were some of the main factors that contributed to the fact that gold continued to be a safe-haven asset for investors.

This year, aside from war and geopolitical conflicts, the lack of clarity around the timing of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary easing cycle and the growing popularity of Donald Trump’s candidacy may substantially impact the 2024 election, the geopolitical landscape and gold’s appreciation. But let us focus on geopolitics.

De-dollarisation and reserve diversification

As for the economic sanctions against Russia in the wake of the war in Ukraine, these drove up the prices of hydrocarbons and other commodities, while undermining the credibility of the global financial system by weaponizing the dollar and seizing Russian reserves, leading to an increase in central banks’ demand for gold.

A survey of 85 sovereign wealth funds and 57 central banks by Invesco, a global asset management firm, showed that almost 60% of respondents are concerned about the precedent of sanctions against Russia and consider that these developments have made gold a more attractive asset, while 68% hold reserves in their coffers compared to 50% in 2020.

In this context, the growing trend of dedollarisation shows no signs of stopping. According to the IMF, the market share of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency has fallen from 66% in 2003 to 58.4% at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023. This seems to confirm that the international financial system is facing an unstoppable transformation process, encouraged by the large emerging economies that are part of the BRICS group.

Rising tensions in the Middle East

The armed conflict unleashed between Israel and Palestine on 7 October caused the price of gold to rise by more than 10%, reaching a high of over 1,900 euros per ounce. This rise in the price of gold was driven not so much by the armed conflict between these two actors, but by the possible ramifications if other countries in the region and the West became involved.

While the tug of war between Hezbollah and Israel as a result of the massacre in Gaza was in danger of spiralling out of control, Ansar Al-lah, the Islamist resistance group better known as the Houthis and operating in Yemen, also showed solidarity with Palestine by attacking ships transiting the Red Sea bound for Israel and other countries that continue to fuel the genocide.

This exponentially increased shipping costs and the risk of reigniting the flames of war in Yemen after the last ceasefire, driving up the price of gold. The response from the US and some of its client states was swift, and the bombing of Yemen continues to this day.

As for the US military’s illegal occupation of Syria, it continues to provoke a response by armed resistance groups. The attack on one of the US military bases has been followed by an increase in US bombings in Syria and Iraq against military targets that Washington links to the Iranian government.

In this context, US threats against Iran, accusing it of supporting Syria, Yemen and Palestine, are a clear attempt to widen the current conflict. This would also have ramifications for the global economy, financial markets and the value of gold as a safe-haven asset for investors.

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In an increasingly unpredictable financial world, knowing what major investors are doing can make the difference between reacting late or anticipating the next move. Two little-known indicators —the DIX and the GEX— help us read this hidden flow. You don’t need to be a Wall Street analyst to understand them; you just need to observe the market with a trained eye.

When you look at a stock or an index price, you’re only seeing the tip of the iceberg. Beneath the surface lie thousands of institutional trades that never go through public exchanges. Large funds, banks, and insurers often operate in spaces called dark pools —literally “dark swimming pools”— where they can buy or sell massive volumes without the market noticing immediately.

These parallel spaces help avoid sharp price swings, but they also reveal the true institutional sentiment: that’s where the big players make their move before anyone else sees it.

To measure what’s happening there, the company SqueezeMetrics created the DIX, or Dark Index. This indicator shows whether institutions are buying or selling inside these opaque markets.

The DIX: the footprint of big money in the dark

Imagine you’re in a supermarket. In the public area, people are shopping as usual. But there’s a door in the back where loaded carts roll out —that’s the big buyers’ zone. The DIX tells us whether those carts are full or empty. In other words:

• A high DIX (above 45%) means net institutional buying. The big players are quietly accumulating shares —a signal of optimism, buying now what they believe will be worth more tomorrow. 
• A low DIX (below 40%) means net selling. The big players are reducing exposure or taking profits, often before a correction.
  

This indicator doesn’t tell us when the market will move, but it does show who is moving —and in which direction. When institutional money flows in, markets usually rise in the following weeks. When it flows out, turbulence often follows.

The GEX: the temperature of volatility

If the DIX tells us what is happening, the GEX —Gamma Exposure— tells us how. Here we look at market makers, the intermediaries who provide liquidity to the options market, particularly around the S&P 500.

These professionals use a strategy called delta hedging to manage risk. Depending on the volume of call and put options, they adjust their positions. The GEX measures how much those adjustments might cushion or amplify market moves. Thus: 

• A high GEX means stability —market makers are acting as shock absorbers, damping volatility. 
• A low or negative GEX means tension —their adjustments amplify each move, making the market nervous, like a taut string that can snap on any news.
  

Put simply: the GEX is the emotional thermometer of the market. When it rises, there’s calm. When it drops, there’s fear.

Combining DIX and GEX: an institutional compass

No single indicator is perfect, but together they offer a much richer view. The DIX shows what institutional money —funds, insurers, banks, and pension managers— is doing, while the GEX shows how the market might react. For example, many professional managers read them together as a combined signal of sentiment and risk.

A real example: March 2020

During the first weeks of the pandemic, the DIX plunged while the GEX turned negative. Institutions were selling, market makers were amplifying the moves, and the result was one of the fastest market crashes in history.

By late March, the DIX started rising again as the GEX recovered —and the market began its spectacular rebound. This combination signaled the trend reversal days before most retail investors noticed. You might not have a research team or an algorithm tracking institutional flows, but understanding these indicators helps you read the market’s emotions more clearly.

Knowing when “smart money” flows in or out is like having a weather map: it doesn’t stop the storm, but it helps you decide whether to carry an umbrella.

The term refers to large professional investors —banks, hedge funds, insurers, or public institutions— with access to superior information, tools, and analytical capacity compared to retail investors. They’re often the first to detect economic cycle shifts or market turning points, and their capital flows can foreshadow what the rest of the market will do later.

Following the trail of smart money isn’t about imitation —it’s about interpreting the market’s true sentiment. If these institutions quietly accumulate positions, they’re probably expecting better times. If they’re reducing exposure, a storm may be coming. The goal isn’t to predict the future, but to read the signals left by those who move the most influential capital.

Moreover, DIX and GEX remind us of a fundamental lesson: markets move not just on data or news, but on collective behavior —of investors, institutions, and intermediaries. Understanding that behavior is key to investing with reason rather than emotion.

Seeing behind the market’s curtain

The financial world frequently looks like a chess match between giants. But even small players can watch the board and understand the moves. Indicators like DIX and GEX let us glimpse the hidden institutional dynamics —the forces that move prices but rarely make headlines.

They’re not magic tools or instant trading systems, but they help interpret trends and measure risk. Used wisely, they let us act with more logic and less emotion —and in finance, that’s a major advantage.

Markets don’t reward those who guess —they reward those who understand. DIX and GEX aren’t crystal balls, but they are windows that let us peek behind the curtain of big capital. Learning to read them is learning to read human behaviour in its purest form: fear, greed, and confidence.

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European farmers are up in arms. Rising costs, the removal of subsidies, new environmental measures and cuts to finance the war in Ukraine are strangling a sector that is essential to the continent’s food sovereignty and has become the scapegoat of the Eurocrats.

After seeing the images of half of Germany blocked by the avalanche of tractors heading towards the Brandenburg Gate, one might think that you reap what you sow. Europe’s political class has long been fomenting discord against the agricultural sector, and it was only a matter of time before one day or another it paid the consequences.

These protests are the latest in a series of farmers’ demonstrations across Europe. Previously, similar demonstrations have been seen in the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Spain and other European states, where farmers have also taken to the streets to express their dissatisfaction with the effects of planned environmental reforms and high production costs.

The casus belli of the German rural revolt

Although grouping all the demonstrations under a common denominator is tempting, they have mainly been triggered by specific national situations. The German agricultural sector is opposed to proposed cuts in fuel subsidies used in agriculture. An austerity policy that the German government argues became necessary after a Constitutional Court verdict prohibited the coalition government from transferring 60 billion euros in appropriations to mitigate the effects of the pandemic on the fight against climate change.

The cuts were intended to eliminate the existing tax benefits for diesel and the road tax exemption for agricultural and forestry vehicles. This would have allowed the federal government to save almost 1 billion euros in additional revenue from the official amount it has to save in the 2024 fiscal year – still pending parliamentary approval – of around 17 billion euros out of a budget of 450 billion euros.

This is against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. The war, instigated and perpetuated by the US and its client states in Europe, has been devastating for the German economy and industrial sector. Yet Berlin has pledged more than 17.1 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine from 24 January 2022, the same amount it would have to save through cuts during 2024.

But of course, these billions of euros in military “aid” are recycled into the German military-industrial complex which, like the one of the United States, is making a killing from this war, courtesy of the taxpayers and farmers who suffer the cuts because there is no money and the Ukrainians who serve as cannon fodder for the corporate interests behind these conflicts. As President Biden keeps repeating to keep the funds flowing, the money going to “Ukraine” is a good investment.

Climate targets vs. food sovereignty

Despite the loss of more than 5 million farms since 2005, a decline of 37%, Europe is generally self-sufficient in most foodstuffs. However, support for farmers provided by the Common Agricultural Policy is essential in ensuring the continuity of farms and crops in the EU. Especially since the increased costs caused by the sanitary crisis, the logistical funnel and the war in Ukraine.

Eurocrats in Brussels are nervous about the agricultural revolt on the continent. The EU has set a global goal of zero emissions by 2050, and EU officials are concerned that the outpouring of protests could set back the ambitious climate targets set by the European Commission.

According to Greenpeace, the current system, which pushes farmers to run large, intensively industrialised farms is broken and protesting for business as usual will not help. In any case, the situation of political neglect in which the rural world finds itself is unsustainable. The transition to a more sustainable model has to guarantee much more than the mere survival of the sector.

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Record buying of gold by central banks, which are matching their gold reserves relative to GDP with other countries, revived the debate about the possibility of a reboot of the current monetary system based on a new gold standard.

Global central banks have been buying record amounts of gold since the beginning of 2022. The pace and regularity with which central banks accumulate gold is unprecedented, as they have been mostly sellers of the precious metal throughout history.

This extraordinary demand for gold by central banks, the largest in 55 years, is attributed to a desire to diversify their reserves and reduce dependence on the dollar in the face of a paradigm shift towards a multipolar world that is becoming increasingly evident.

The US banking crisis, geopolitical tensions, military conflicts and the US Federal Reserve’s stance on maintaining interest rates have been some of the main factors contributing to gold’s continued safe-haven asset status for investors and central banks this year.

But beyond the intrinsic capacity of physical gold to maintain its value in the face of economic uncertainty, some indicators suggest that this accumulation of gold by central banks is just the prelude to a restart of the international monetary system and a possible return to the gold standard.

Gold reserves to GDP

Aerdt Houben, Director of Financial Markets at the Dutch Central Bank (DNB), has recently spoken about the potential value of gold in a financial collapse scenario, stating that if a financial crisis occurs, the price of gold will skyrocket, and official gold reserves can be used to support a new gold standard.

The DNB has matched its gold reserves, relative to GDP, to other countries in the eurozone and outside Europe. The same is true of the Polish central bank, which in recent years has bought some 300 tonnes of gold to bring its gold-to-GDP ratio in line with the eurozone average.

Not all eurozone central banks are transparent about the alignment of their gold reserves with GDP, but even though there is no official agreement or mandate, and European central banks have communicated that there is no legal obligation to coordinate reserves, there seems to be an unofficial agreement to balance gold reserves among themselves.

In any case, given the evident alignment of European banks’ gold reserves over the past decades, some analysts believe that this is a plan B to stabilise their economies by moving to a gold standard in case of a collapse of the current global monetary system. Not unlike what China and Russia are speculated to have been doing in recent years with their massive purchases of gold.

The bad monetary policies that caused the housing bubble and the way fiat currencies have been managed since the 2008 crisis, depreciating the dollar and exporting US domestic problems to the rest of the world, along with economic sanctions on countries not aligned with Western geopolitical and economic interests, have undermined the credibility of the international monetary system. An alternative based on a new, multipolar, more stable and less inflationary gold standard seems closer than ever, and global central banks want to be included.

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As central banks continue to print money to keep the financial system afloat, the price of gold keeps climbing to historic highs. But is it really gold that is rising, or is it money that is losing value?

In August 1971, Richard Nixon announced that the United States was breaking the link between the dollar and gold. That seemingly technical gesture turned the global monetary system upside down. Since then, money has not been backed by any physical asset. It is fiat, meaning it depends solely on trust in the issuer. Its value no longer comes from a quantity of gold, but from the collective belief that it will continue to be used to buy goods and pay debts. But there is a problem: when trust is forced, it also inflates. And the more money that is created, the less value each unit holds.

The world’s central banks have multiplied the money supply as never before. Between 2020 and 2023 alone, the global monetary base grew by more than 120%, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), while the production of real wealth — global GDP — increased by only 10%.

We all pay for the difference, both in the form of inflation and in terms of lost purchasing power and rising living costs. This process, known as monetary over-issuance, creates the paradox we are living today: we have more money, yet we can buy fewer things. And, as a result, the value of all assets becomes distorted.

A mountain of debt backed by no gold

According to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), global debt now exceeds $338 trillion. In contrast, all the gold known to exist on the planet — around 273,000 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council — represents the physical foundation that has historically served to guarantee the value of money.

If we divided that total debt by the amount of gold in existence, each kilo of gold would have to “cover” more than $1.2 million in financial liabilities. In other words, if gold were to resume its role as a real measure of wealth, its price would have to be ten to eleven times higher than it is today.

This disproportion reveals decades of unchecked monetary expansion and the deep disconnect between the money created and the real value it represents. When we see the price of gold at historic highs, it is tempting to think that the metal has become more expensive. But the opposite is true: it is money that has lost value.

Gold can still buy practically the same as it did fifty years ago — a modest car, a few tonnes of wheat, or several weeks of skilled labour. Today’s money, on the other hand, has far less purchasing power. In simple terms: gold has not appreciated in value; money has been diluted.

It is no coincidence that central banks are now the world’s largest buyers of gold. The World Gold Council has recorded record purchases over the past three years, with China, Russia, Turkey, and Poland, leading the way. In 2024 alone, central banks acquired 1,037 net tonnes — the largest volume since 1950. While proclaiming monetary stability, they are accumulating gold as insurance against the very system they manage. It is a telling contradiction: they trust gold more than their own currencies.

Furthermore, monetary over-issuance is a form of invisible debt. Every time a central bank creates money to finance deficits or bailouts, the real cost falls on the public. Existing savings lose value without anyone voting on that decision. It is a silent and regressive tax — devastating for middle incomes and family savings.

The result is a vicious circle: more inflation, more debt, and more money printing to sustain it.

Towards the limits of the system

This monetary imbalance is pushing the system to a critical point. Trust — the invisible pillar of fiat money — is beginning to crumble. Each financial crisis, each bailout, each wave of money printing erodes the credibility of monetary institutions. And history shows that no system based solely on trust has ever lasted indefinitely.

Several analysts are already talking about a possible global “monetary reset”, where gold and other real assets regain their role as benchmarks of value. We may not return to the gold standard, but the need for a tangible foundation is clearer than ever. In a world where money can be created with a click, gold reminds us of an uncomfortable truth: real value cannot be printed.

Currencies may lose their meaning, markets may falter — but gold remains, immutable, as a physical measure of value and a refuge from uncertainty. Perhaps it is not merely an investment. Perhaps it is a form of economic memory: the guarantee that, whatever happens to paper money or digital figures, there will always be something real behind the concept of wealth.

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