If you don’t quite understand why, despite living in a so-called meritocracy, your efforts are not rewarded, don’t worry, a computer model of wealth creation overturns the notion that economic success is linked to talent and individual effort, concluding that luck plays a much more important role.

The lottery of opportunity is handed out at birth, but we have little chance of winning. This seems to be the conclusion of the thesis defended by a group of scientists led by Alessandro Pluchino, professor of Theoretical Physics and Mathematical Modelling at the University of Catania.

Pluchino and his team developed a computer model that uses simulations to analyse the distribution of wealth and success in a hypothetical population, to test the extent to which factors such as human talent and luck play a role.

The aim was to dissect to what extent the role of chance influences the widely dominant meritocratic paradigm in Western cultures, which is based on the notion that success is mainly, if not exclusively, due to personal qualities such as talent, intelligence, skills, effort or risk-taking.

How does the computer model work?

The team fed data from a hypothetical population of people with the average distribution of talent and intelligence into the simulator. The computer model then generated a simulation equivalent to a 40-year working life, introducing fortunate and unfortunate events over time, which equate to opportunities to increase or decrease wealth.

Following this method, the researchers found that, more often than not, wealth is linked to luck rather than talent: “Our model shows that while it is true that some degree of talent is necessary to succeed in life, the most talented people rarely achieve the highest peaks, being outperformed by moderately talented but significantly luckier individuals.

In the end, the team checked whether the resulting wealth distribution matched that of the real world, where 80% of the population owns 20% of the wealth. And it did, again and again. Put another way, the results confirmed that, despite differences in talent and effort, chance plays a crucial role in determining who becomes extremely wealthy. This means that many talented and hard-working people will not be rich simply because they have not been as lucky as others.

On the other hand, the simulations also showed that opportunities are unevenly distributed. People who already have certain advantages, such as a good level of education or a good network of contacts, are more likely to encounter opportunities that can lead to large economic gains, while those who start from a less privileged position often find it more difficult to access the same opportunities.

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