The sustained decline in birth rates and the consequent population ageing are causing a global demographic decline, especially in developed countries. This trend is a cause for concern because it calls into question the sustainability of the current socio-economic system.

Since the 1950s, fertility rates have been declining as societies have modernised. Recent studies suggest that fertility rates will continue to plummet until the end of the century, leading to profound demographic change with global consequences.

By 2050, more than three-quarters of countries will not have fertility rates high enough to maintain their population ratios over time. This figure is projected to rise to 97 per cent by 2100 when only six of 204 countries and territories (Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, and Tajikistan) will have fertility rates above 2.1 births per woman.

Most of the world is thus approaching a natural population decline, known as a demographic winter, in which the number of deaths exceeds the number of births. This means that there will be more old people in need of care, but fewer young people working to finance pensions and the welfare state.

The European fertility crisis

In the case of Europe, the number of births has fallen below 4 million for the first time since 1960, one of the lowest birth rates in the world. In 1990 there were 5.1 million births, the last year in which births exceeded 5 million. Likewise, the fertility rate has also fallen, approaching levels of two decades ago.

Spain has the second-lowest fertility rate in the European Union, behind only Malta, according to Eurostat data. In 2022, the Spanish rate was 1.16 children born per woman, below countries such as Italy (1.24) or Portugal (1.43), which were also below the European average.

Even so, the data on the evolution of births provided by the INE suggest that the fall observed in recent decades could be coming to an end and that 2024 could mark a turning point for the stabilisation, if not recovery, of the birth rate in Spain.

Unfounded scaremongering?

The world population has reached almost 8.2 billion by the middle of this year and is estimated to grow by about 2 billion over the next 60 years, reaching a peak of about 10.3 billion around 2080. After that, it is expected to fall to 10.2 billion, 700 million less than was projected a decade ago.

Indeed, overall population growth or decline is not the only part of the demographic equation that should concern us: the age structure of the population, the gender imbalance, the accelerated process of urbanisation, the huge disparities between regions and environmental sustainability are all factors to be taken into account if we are to escape from a false dichotomy.

The most dystopian neoliberal scenarios are based on a system that has made continued economic growth its reproductive strategy, leaving aside environmental sustainability and the necessary reconfiguration of the balance between work and family life. Likewise, part of the fatalism stems from the most conservative sector of the population that yearns for the traditional family model and sees immigration as a cultural threat.

In the same way that the justification for the fear of uncontrolled and unlimited population growth has faded, the alarmism about the demographic decline and the falling birth rate will possibly be appeased by the realisation that there are viable alternatives to the current production model, which can ultimately be beneficial for society as a whole.

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