Europe is talking more and more about “strategic autonomy”. But what exactly does that mean? Energy, technological or military independence? Or is it just a political slogan in an increasingly fragmented world? Amid global geopolitical tension, the European Union is trying to redefine its role between the United States and China. And in this scenario, territories such as Catalonia may find a window of opportunity… or become trapped in a new dependency.

For decades, Europe has built its economic model on a basis that appeared efficient but was deeply dependent: cheap energy from Russia, competitive manufacturing from China and military security under the umbrella of the United States. This balance, which seemed functional, has broken down. The war in Ukraine, global trade tensions and the growing use of sanctions as a tool of geopolitical pressure have exposed an uncomfortable reality: Europe does not control its strategic levers.

The global economic system is not neutral, but rather responds to power structures that have generated technological, financial and commercial dependencies on a worldwide scale. This architecture limits the real sovereignty of territories and conditions their decisions. For this reason, the question is no longer whether Europe wants to be independent, but to clearly identify what it wants —and can— stop depending on.

Reindustrialisation: producing again… at what price?

One of Brussels’ answers is clear: reindustrialise Europe. The pandemic and the supply crisis revealed the extent to which dependence on China was critical, from microchips to pharmaceutical products. For years, Europe has outsourced its productive capacity, prioritising low costs over industrial sovereignty. Now, the shift is clear, with incentives to manufacture semiconductors, plans to recover strategic sectors and investments in renewable energy and raw materials.

But this process is not free. Producing in Europe is more expensive, and this has a direct impact on the economy: it puts pressure on corporate margins, may translate into higher prices for consumers and requires the deployment of massive public subsidies. Here emerges a central tension that will mark the future of the continent: to what extent autonomy can be gained without losing competitiveness in a globalised market.

At the same time, Europe is trying to reduce its dependence on the United States in key areas such as technology, payment systems and defence. However, the risk is replacing one dependency with another: critical minerals from third countries, new technological dependencies or the growing weight of large subsidised corporations. The challenge, therefore, is not only to change suppliers, but to fundamentally rethink an economic model that until now has been based on structural dependencies.

Catalonia: periphery or strategic node?

In this new scenario, Catalonia’s role is not obvious, but neither is it minor. It has a solid industrial base and a strategic geographical position in southern Europe that make it a natural candidate to become a relevant logistics and production node. Ports, infrastructure and a diversified business fabric can work in its favour in a process of reindustrialisation that seeks proximity and resilience.

However, this opportunity coexists with important structural limitations. High fiscal pressure and the lack of full economic decision-making capacity can act as a brake at a time when attracting investment is key. Added to this is a deeper problem: the imbalance between wages and the cost of living. When purchasing power is eroded, the domestic market weakens, and without robust internal demand, any industrial strategy loses solidity.

For this reason, the question is not only whether Catalonia can take advantage of this new stage, but under what conditions it will do so. It can be an opportunity if high value-added industry is attracted and the productive fabric is strengthened with greater decision-making capacity. But it can also be a risk if only costs are assumed and structural dependency is maintained. Ultimately, it is not enough to be part of the European map: there must be real room to define one’s own rules of the game.

Real autonomy or political narrative?

Europe wants to regain control over key areas such as energy, technology, defence and finance, but all these sectors are deeply intertwined with global interests. In this context, the risk of capture by large corporations or lobbies is not minor, especially within a system that often responds to dynamics of crony capitalism that distort political decisions. Recent history confirms it: major economic changes do not always liberate; they often redefine dependencies.

For this reason, the real question is not only to produce more or diversify suppliers, but to guarantee real sovereignty. This implies effective control over financial flows, tangible energy independence, technological autonomy and political capacity to define one’s own strategies. Without these pillars, autonomy is incomplete and may end up being only a well-constructed narrative. For Catalonia, the challenge is especially delicate: to take advantage of this new window of opportunity without becoming trapped in a new architecture of dependency.

The world is changing, and with it the rules of the game. Europe is moving, but the key question is whether we will move with judgement or be dragged along. Understanding these changes is not optional: it is essential to protect our savings, make informed decisions and build an economic future with more control and less dependency. Because true autonomy begins when we understand the system… and decide how we want to play within it.

11Onze is the community fintech of Catalonia. Open an account by downloading the app El Canut for Android or iOS and join the revolution!