This 2025 has been a year that will go down in history for the true explosion of gold. Beyond occasional spikes, the yellow metal has reaffirmed its role as a safe haven, a diversification asset, and a sign of distrust toward conventional assets. Now, with the 2026 horizon ahead, it is worth asking: is this only a temporary surge or the prelude to a new cycle? And above all, what will it mean for savers and investors like you?

For almost a decade, gold lived in a kind of exile. Modest returns, institutional disinterest, and a dominant narrative proclaiming that technological assets —and even cryptocurrencies— were “the future.” In this context, the yellow metal seemed like a relic useful only at specific moments of turbulence.

But 2025 has completely turned this script upside down. The price of gold has not only climbed; it has done so by breaking psychological and structural levels it had not breached for years. Financial demand has regained unexpected vigour: in the United States alone, gold ETFs recorded a 58% year-on-year increase in the third quarter, according to World Gold Council data. It is a move that had not been seen in a long time and reveals a profound shift in investor sentiment.

This reappearance is not accidental. It responds to a cocktail of factors that, combined, create the kind of scenario that has historically fueled gold bull markets:

• Geopolitical uncertainty. Conflicts in Europe, rising tension in the Middle East, and a reconfiguration of global power among blocs. When political maps tremble, capital seeks refuge.
• Inflation that does not give way. Despite the slowdown from the 2023 peak, inflation remains above central bank targets. The loss of purchasing power becomes a real threat… and gold returns as the traditional shield against this phenomenon.
• Structural doubts about the dollar. U.S. fiscal policy, runaway debt, and de-dollarization moves led by emerging countries put pressure on the hegemonic currency. When the dollar hesitates, gold advances.
  

Taken together, these factors have made gold, far from being “out of place,” regain center stage in the financial arena, reaffirming its key function as an asset for preserving value.

The new driving force

If in the past retail investors were the ones who set gold’s bull cycles, 2025 has made a deeper change evident: demand has come from the system’s major players. And when central banks move, the market listens.

Over recent years, these institutions have been strengthening their gold reserves as part of a strategy of gradual de-dollarization and risk diversification. According to the World Gold Council, this trend will not only continue but will accelerate, and there is no indication that it should slow. Emerging countries —led by China, India, and Turkey— are at the center of the movement, but even some European central banks, have resumed purchases after decades of inactivity.

Added to this institutional demand is another engine: listed financial capital. In the United States, ETFs linked to physical gold have absorbed more than 37,000 million dollars in net inflows through September, a figure not seen since the last major bull cycle. The entry of these volumes shows a return of “smart money” toward tangible, resilient assets that are independent of monetary policy.

This context, combined with solid fundamentals, has led multiple international analysts to revise their forecasts upward. According to  Mining, the price of gold could stand between 4,400 and 5,300 dollars per ounce in the coming year, a scenario that would place the metal in territory it has never reached.

But one of the most discussed predictions is Goldman Sachs’s, which anticipates an additional 6% increase through mid-2026. The determining factor, according to the institution, will not be jewelry demand or speculative funds, but the structural accumulation by central banks, a slow, steady, and extraordinarily powerful market force.

The key factors that explain this rise are mainly:

• Weakening of the dollar: the loss of confidence in the dollar’s role as the hegemonic currency pushes entire economies to strengthen tangible alternatives such as gold. 
• Expectations of rate cuts in the U.S.: lower rates reduce bond yields and make gold —which does not generate cash flows but preserves value— more attractive.
• Geopolitical and trade tensions: global fragmentation creates an environment in which risk assets suffer and safe havens thrive. 
• Accumulation of reserves outside the West: emerging countries seek to shield themselves against sanctions, devaluations, and financial instability. 
  

Taken together, these elements do not describe a simple cyclical rebound. They point to a reconfiguration of the monetary order, where gold once again acts as a natural counterweight to fiat currencies and to an increasingly fragile financial system.

Where are markets looking in 2026?

If it is confirmed that gold can reach 4,400–5,300 dollars per ounce, we are facing a profound mutation of the market: gold would cease to be an “alternative asset” and become, de facto, an essential asset for preserving value. And this idea, which until recently seemed exaggerated, is today a serious hypothesis in many research offices.

The levers sustaining this possible new stage are clear. On the one hand, institutional and central-bank demand maintains a solid pace, driven by the need to diversify reserves and reduce monetary dependencies. In addition, the macro environment continues to play in the metal’s favor: if inflation persists or central banks choose to keep interest rates high, gold strengthens its role as a natural hedge against the loss of purchasing power.

Geopolitics adds even more pressure, because any shock between China and the U.S., a new episode in the Near East, or tensions in supply chains can immediately reactivate flows into safe-haven assets. And if, in parallel, bonds offer meager returns and stock markets enter phases of volatility, the metal shines again as a stable alternative amid the noise.

Even so, the path is not free of risks. An unexpected tightening of interest rates or a rebound in the dollar could slow the rise. There is also the phenomenon known as gold fatigue: when everyone takes for granted that it will keep rising, the market can lose momentum. And finally, it cannot be ruled out that other emerging assets, such as certain cryptocurrencies or industrial metals such as silver, capture part of investor attention.

Despite these nuances, the consensus is clear: if 2026 confirms the current trajectory, we will not be talking simply about a rebound, but about a change of era in gold’s role within the global financial system.

Impact for savers, investors, and the Fintech ecosystem

In an environment of persistent uncertainty, gold once again acts as a protective cushion for the saver: it does not replace a complete portfolio, but a moderate exposure can help soften monetary or stock-market shocks. At the same time, the Fintech revolution has democratized access to the metal: today it can be invested in through physical purchase, ETFs, digital platforms, fractional investment, or tokenization systems that were previously unthinkable.

For the end customer, the rule remains the same as always: balance and diversification. Neither concentrating everything in gold, nor ignoring an asset that has shown resilience when other markets weaken. And it should be kept in mind that, in many European countries, investment gold enjoys a specific tax treatment, an element that can influence the real return of any strategy.

If 2025 has been the year of the breakout, 2026 could be the year of consolidation. But nothing is automatic: gold’s trajectory will depend on inflation, the dollar, geopolitics, and central bank decisions. Gold is not a magic wand, but it is a key piece within a broader financial puzzle that the 11Onze community must observe with a critical and informed outlook.

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