Amid the escalation of tension with Iran, a new variable has come into play in global markets: Donald Trump’s tweets —or posts—. Each message shakes the price of oil, stock markets and investors’ expectations. Coincidence or strategy? The line between information and informational advantage is increasingly blurred.

The relationship between war and the economy is not new. Historically, conflicts have affected energy prices, currencies and financial markets. But the current moment introduces a new layer: the immediacy of information, which accelerates any reaction to unprecedented levels.

Political statements, leaks or simple messages on social media can trigger instant movements. In a matter of minutes, oil can move by several percentage points after a political statement. The facts do not need to materialise for the market to react. Perception is enough, expectation is enough. The market no longer waits. It reacts. In recent weeks, a disturbing synchrony has become evident: relevant political communications, immediate oil movements and chain reactions in stock markets.

This correlation is observable with data, but what really raises questions is not the subsequent reaction, but what happens before. When certain movements occur minutes or hours before the information becomes public, the debate ceases to be about volatility and becomes about informational advantage.

The invisible risk: who plays with an advantage

Financial markets are based on a fundamental premise: all participants should have access to the same information. When this does not happen, a structural distortion appears that calls the functioning of the system into question. In the United States, this problem is not new. The approval of the STOCK Act in 2012 already highlighted the risk that public officials could use non-public information to trade in the markets.

In this context, the synchronisation between certain political communications and financial movements reopens an uncomfortable debate: to what extent do markets reflect public information… or informational advantage? It is not about pointing to specific culpabilities, but about understanding the incentives and patterns that repeat over time and that can generate imbalances.

As set out in The current state of the extractive system, the great structures of power have evolved towards more subtle forms of control. Direct intervention is no longer necessary; influencing information is enough. The management of the narrative —political, media or financial— thus becomes a tool capable of generating value, volatility and opportunities. In this scenario, whoever has early access to information does not only interpret the market… they can anticipate it.

Basel III: the system seeks refuge

Faced with this environment, the financial system has begun to react. With the implementation of Basel III, international regulators have strengthened the quality requirements for bank assets. This is a profound change that seeks to restore confidence in a system increasingly strained by volatility and uncertainty.

There is, however, one particularly revealing element: physical gold comes to be considered an asset of the highest quality —Tier 1—. This move is not accidental. It implies recognising that not all financial assets have the same solidity and that not everything can be based solely on trust or on the information available.

When the system demands more real assets, it is implicitly admitting that trust in “paper” is not enough. It is a silent but significant shift, pointing towards a growing need for stability in an environment dominated by volatility and informational asymmetries.

In this context, gold regains prominence not because of tradition, but out of pure logic, because this metal has historically been the refuge when monetary or financial systems become destabilised. It does not depend on any issuer, it cannot be created arbitrarily and it cannot be anticipated with privileged information. “It is, in essence, an asset that exists outside the narrative… and outside the game of information.

Two speeds: speculation vs. value

The current market seems to move in two very different dimensions. In the short term, speed dominates: information, immediate reaction and growing volatility that responds more to expectations than to fundamentals. It is a space where time is measured in seconds and where any stimulus can trigger abrupt movements.

By contrast, in the long term, the logic is different. Here the focus shifts towards the preservation of value and security. When the perception grows that prices may be influenced by early information, investors look for assets less exposed to this dynamic. It is not an ideological question, but a rational response to a system that raises doubts about its own fairness.

A fair market… or only an apparent one?

While some actors can take advantage of these asymmetries, the real impact is distributed across the rest of society. The increase in the price of energy, persistent inflation, the loss of purchasing power and insecurity for savings are its most visible consequences. It is a familiar pattern: the benefits are concentrated among a few actors, while the risks are spread among the majority.

Financial markets are built on an apparently simple idea: equality of informational opportunities. But when this equality is called into question, so is their legitimacy. There is no need to manipulate the market when one can trade before everyone else. It is at this point that trust begins to erode and the foundations of the system are exposed.

In a world where information can move markets in seconds, understanding who has access to what —and when— becomes essential to protect wealth. Because when doubt sets in, capital does not seek explanations: it seeks refuge in what does not depend on time, nor on the narrative, nor on early information. It seeks, simply, what is real. And that, in today’s markets, is increasingly scarce. At La Plaça by 11Onze, we continue to analyse these dynamics to help you make informed decisions in an increasingly complex system.

Protecting savings with physical gold has been one of 11Onze’s main contributions to its community and, now, the range of products is being expanded. That is why, in the face of volatility, still-high inflation and the growing crisis of confidence in the banking system, gold is once again strengthening as a safe-haven asset. Discover Gold Seed at Preciosos 11Onze.