A report by the Bank of Spain forecasts that renewable energies could bring down the price of electricity by 50% by 2030. Furthermore, it predicts that the presence of renewable energies in final energy use will represent 42% of the total market.
In a study titled ‘The impact of renewable energies on the wholesale price of electricity’, the Bank of Spain forecasts that renewable energies could bring down the price of electricity by an additional 50% by 2030 if the deployment foreseen in the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC) is met.
‘In addition to contributing to the climate transition, renewables have a very important role to play in reducing wholesale electricity prices and this importance is expected to increase in the future,’ the report says.
Wind and solar energy went from 26% of total electricity generation in 2019 to more than 40% in the first six months of this year. The percentage of electricity demand covered by renewables reached a high of 47% in the second quarter of 2024.
In addition, the study shows that wholesale electricity prices were more than 40% lower during the first half of this year than would have been observed had wind and solar generation capacity remained at 2019 levels.
The importance of external factors
The BdE recognises that, in any case, the future behaviour of these prices is subject to considerable uncertainty, as it is conditioned by the evolution of different supply factors or the adaptation of demand to new levels of renewable energy generation. In this context, it points out that natural gas prices still have an important effect on market prices, as has been seen with the price increases following the sanctions imposed on Russia.
However, the report notes that the prediction of lower electricity prices is based on a confidence interval of between 45% and 60%, assuming that the price of natural gas remains at current levels and that the pace of implementation of the ambitious investment projects planned to increase renewable electricity generation capacity does not slow down.
On the other hand, the climate targets set by the European Union to reduce CO₂ emissions by 55% by 2030 in comparison to 1990, as well as to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, will continue to have a substantial effect on the price to wholesale markets.
The BdE makes the reflection that ‘under the marginalist system in force in European markets, electricity prices are set based on the offers of the most expensive technology needed to meet the demand of each time slot’. Therefore, ‘an increase in renewable energy generation would affect wholesale prices to the extent that it displaces other technologies with a higher marginal cost from the energy mix needed to meet demand in certain time slots’.
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Gràcies per compartir-ho. Com a membre del CR de Som Energia, conec el funcionament del mercat elèctric i el que conclou el Banc d’Espanya ben segur no passarà, tot i que seria bonic. La darrera frase del informe, ho revela. L’article barreja cost i preu de l’electricitat i això té poc sentit en un preu fixat per subhasta. No és ben estrany que no parli de la generació hidroelèctrica? Les centrals hidroelèctriques oferten a preus més elevats que les centrals de cicle combinat. Com és possible? Perquè disposen d’emmagatzematge (l’embassament) i poden triar l’hora a la que produeixen, a diferència de la majoria de fotovoltaica i eòlica actuals, que produeixen si fa sol o si bufa el vent. A mesura que s’instal·li més emmagatzematge en aquestes tipologies de renovables, també passaran l’eòlica i la fotovoltaica a ofertar a preus desorbitats, és una subhasta i el mercat capitalista sempre vol (només) guanyar diners. Per aquest motiu, principalment, no caurà el preu de la llum, perquè té poc a veure amb el cost real, que és, aquest sí, baixíssim. L’esperança que ens queda és que Brusel·les canviï aquestes ‘regles del joc’ que afavoreixen als especuladors. Tan de bo passi aviat.
Moltes gràcies, Jaume, per la teva extensa explicació. Estic totalment d’acord amb el que has dit, i el que diu aquest informe del Banc d’Espanya segurament que és una utopia que malauradament no passarà…