Gold prices in 2025: another record year?

The price of gold reached record highs in 2024, approaching 2,800 dollars per ounce, the most bullish in the last 14 years. But how will it perform this year, will it consolidate its price or will the relentless appreciation continue?

 

2024 was a record year for the gold price, reaching an all-time high of 2,790 dollars per ounce on 30 October, thanks to the volatility generated by the elections in the United States and the armed conflict between Israel and Iran. By the end of the year, it had accumulated gains of almost 30% and closed the year as the most continuous bullish period since 2010.

Geopolitical tensions, the start of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and large purchases by central banks to increase their balance sheets boosted the value of gold during 2024 and will remain key factors in determining its evolution this year.

However, uncertainty surrounding the impact of President Donald Trump’s policies on the global economy, which could trigger a trade war, paint an uncertain picture for the precious metal during 2025.

‘As we move into 2025, while business cycle dynamics remain crucial to the outlook, greater attention will be paid to political changes in the US in trade, immigration, regulation, and tax policy. These changes would have to significantly influence outcomes in the US and beyond,’ said Hussein Malik, head of Global Research at J.P. Morgan.

 

Gold could rise above $3,000 in 2025

Although analysts expect appreciation to lag 2024, the consensus is that the price of gold will continue to rise. Financial institutions such as Bank of America and J.P. Morgan believe that gold has everything in its favour to rise above $3,000 this year, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, the imposition of US tariffs and continued central bank demand.

Goldman Sachs also expected gold to hit $3,000 by the end of the year, but in recent weeks has pushed back the forecast to mid-2026 on expectations of fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Nonetheless, its analysts expect prices to reach $2,910 an ounce by the end of the year.

On the other hand, Kevin Shahnazari, founder and CEO of FinlyWealth notes that ‘Gold prices are likely to remain stable if interest rates remain stable and inflation normalises at around 2%’ or could even go down ‘in the face of a stronger than expected dollar and higher real interest rates’.

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