Since the end of World War II, the United States has been the guarantor of global order and the military superpower par excellence. But today, with runaway debt and a paralysed government, Washington faces an uncomfortable question: how long can it continue to pay its soldiers?

The partial shutdown of the US government, its budgetary paralysis and interest payments on a debt that already exceeds its national GDP are jeopardising the sustainability of the American imperial model.

In 2025, the US federal debt will exceed $41 trillion, more than 120% of its GDP. Annual interest alone already exceeds £1.2 trillion, an amount greater than the combined budgets of the Pentagon and the Department of Health. With high interest rates, the cost of refinancing this debt has become a burden that devours tax revenues.

In early October, Congress failed to pass the budget for fiscal year 2026, forcing a partial shutdown of the federal government. According to estimates by the Partnership for Public Service and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), nearly 900,000 federal workers could be sent home without pay, and another 700,000 would have to continue working without pay. In previous shutdowns, Congress had guaranteed by law the payment of troops, but this time political polarisation has blocked even that measure.

In an attempt to contain the situation, the Trump administration has announced the temporary diversion of $8 billion in research and development funds to cover military payrolls. According to Reuters and the Associated Press, this manoeuvre will not be sustainable if the shutdown continues beyond November and could also contravene the Antideficiency Act, which prohibits spending without congressional authorisation.

An unpaid army and an armed society

Although paying troops is a top priority for the government, fiscal instability has an impact on morale and internal cohesion. Many soldiers live on tight budgets, and according to the Military Family Advisory Network, one in three members of military families admit that they would be unable to cover a $500 emergency.

At the same time, the US military has stepped up its deployment in cities such as Chicago, Atlanta and Philadelphia, arguing that it is to combat gun violence and the migration crisis. Independent sources suggest that this move is intended to ensure civilian control in the event of possible unrest. In a country where there are more guns than people, any loss of institutional trust can turn an economic crisis into a social crisis.

Experts agree that the United States is not on the brink of civil war, but it is on the brink of extreme polarisation reminiscent of the final days of the Roman Republic: a divided state whose army can become an instrument of order or oppression depending on who controls it. This is because it is not the first time this has happened.

When empires stop paying their soldiers

History offers us a recurring pattern of this situation, in which great empires have fallen when they could no longer finance their own military power.

In the Roman Empire, the non-payment of mercenaries and legionaries accelerated its decline throughout the 5th century. Without pay or food, the troops began to plunder the very provinces they were responsible for protecting. In fact, many of the so-called ‘barbarians’ who contributed to the fall of Rome had previously been unpaid soldiers or allies of the imperial army.

During the Middle Ages, similar episodes were repeated. Such is the case of the famous Italian condottieri of the 15th century, who were hired by city-states such as Florence or Venice, and often changed sides or plundered the territory when princes or dukes could not pay them.

Sixteenth-century Castile underwent a similar process after a century and a half of imperial wars. The continuous bankruptcies of the Spanish monarchy—in 1557, 1575, 1596 and 1607—left the army of the Tercios and the fleet of the Indies without stable funding. Genoese and German bankers cut off credit to the Crown, and the troops, unpaid, staged revolts such as that of the Castilian soldiers in Antwerp in 1576, known as the “Spanish Fury”, which devastated the city and marked the beginning of the empire’s military and financial decline.

But also in 17th-century France, after the Thirty Years’ War, non-payment of the royal armies led to mutinies and mass desertions, forcing the Crown to resort to costly loans that mortgaged the future of the State.

Later, in the final days of the First World War, the Austro-Hungarian Empire also saw how economic bankruptcy made it impossible to maintain its war machine. And in the 1980s, the USSR collapsed when falling oil prices and internal debt made it unviable to continue supporting the largest army on the planet.

In all these cases, the problem was not only economic, but also political and social. When the army stops getting paid, the government’s authority vanishes. And what was once a structure of control becomes a factor of instability.

The risk of a silent default

US debt continues to be considered the pillar of the global financial system, but that confidence is not infinite. With the dollar losing ground as a reserve currency (its global weight fell from 70% to 58% in two decades, according to the International Monetary Fund), more and more countries are reducing their exposure to Treasury bonds.

A temporary suspension of payments or uncontrolled monetary issuance could accelerate de-dollarisation and destabilise capital markets. Against this backdrop, gold has risen by nearly 20% since the end of August, reflecting the loss of confidence in dollar-denominated assets.

In the short term, the United States can avoid total collapse by selling strategic reserves, postponing projects and printing money. But in the medium term, the risk is clear: a global army cannot be maintained with depleted domestic finances.

An empire facing the mirror

Like all empires before it, the United States is at a turning point. Hegemony is not lost in a single day, but when the structures that sustain it cease to have a foundation. Debt, political fracture and loss of institutional credibility are accumulating. And the danger is not only economic, it is also moral: a state that lives beyond its means ends up depending on the faith of others.

The US military has historically been a reflection of its economic power. If that power weakens, so will its role as guarantor of world order. The markets know it, central banks since it, and citizens are increasingly aware of it.

The US still has the capacity to turn the page and renegotiate its debt, reduce military spending and promote a new fiscal policy that prioritises sustainability. But this requires a political consensus that seems far off today. While Congress fights, the debt clock keeps ticking and the question remains open. Can the United States continue to pay for its military? Yes, it can. But with each passing day, the answer becomes less certain.

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