{"id":51889,"date":"2024-09-06T17:21:57","date_gmt":"2024-09-06T15:21:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/magazine\/preu-llum-podria-caure\/"},"modified":"2024-09-06T17:37:18","modified_gmt":"2024-09-06T15:37:18","slug":"precio-luz-podria-caer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/es\/magazine\/precio-luz-podria-caer\/","title":{"rendered":"El precio de la luz podr\u00eda caer a la mitad en 2030"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Un informe del Banco de Espa\u00f1a pronostica que las energ\u00edas renovables podr\u00edan hacer caer el precio de la luz en un 50% de aqu\u00ed al 2030. Adem\u00e1s, prev\u00e9 que la presencia de las energ\u00edas renovables sobre el uso final de energ\u00eda represente el 42% del total del mercado.<\/b><\/h3>\n

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En un <\/span>estudio<\/span><\/a> titulado \u201cEl impacto de las energ\u00edas renovables sobre el precio mayorista de la electricidad\u201d, el Banco de Espa\u00f1a pronostica que <\/span>las energ\u00edas renovables podr\u00edan hacer caer el precio de la electricidad en un 50% adicional de aqu\u00ed a 2030 <\/b>si se cumple el despliegue previsto en el Plan Nacional Integrado de Energ\u00eda y Clima (PNIEC).<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cAdem\u00e1s de contribuir a la transici\u00f3n clim\u00e1tica, <\/span>las energ\u00edas renovables tienen un papel muy relevante en la reducci\u00f3n de los precios al por mayor de la electricidad<\/b> y esta relevancia previsiblemente se incrementar\u00e1 en el futuro\u201d, se\u00f1ala informe.<\/span><\/p>\n

Las energ\u00edas e\u00f3lica y solar pasaron de sumar el 26% del total de generaci\u00f3n el\u00e9ctrica durante el 2019, a m\u00e1s del 40% en los primeros seis meses de este a\u00f1o. <\/span>El porcentaje de demanda el\u00e9ctrica cubierto por renovables logr\u00f3 m\u00e1ximos del 47%<\/b> en el segundo trimestre de 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

Adem\u00e1s, el estudio muestra que <\/span>el precio al por mayor de la electricidad fue m\u00e1s de un 40% inferior durante la primera mitad de este a\u00f1o<\/b> respecto al cual se habr\u00eda observado de mantenerse la capacidad de generaci\u00f3n e\u00f3lica y solar en los niveles del 2019.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

La importancia de los factores externos<\/b><\/h3>\n

El BdE reconoce que, en cualquier caso, el comportamiento futuro de estos precios est\u00e1 sujeto a una considerable incertidumbre, al estar <\/span>condicionado por la evoluci\u00f3n de diferentes factores de oferta o de la adaptaci\u00f3n de la demanda a los nuevos niveles de generaci\u00f3n renovable<\/b>. En este contexto, precisa que los precios del gas natural todav\u00eda tienen un efecto importante en los precios del mercado, como se ha visto con la subida de precios a ra\u00edz de las sanciones impuestas a Rusia.<\/span><\/p>\n

No obstante, el informe apunta que <\/span>la predicci\u00f3n de la rebaja del precio de la luz se ha elaborado est\u00e1n con un intervalo de confianza de entre el 45% y el 60%<\/b>, en el supuesto que el precio del gas natural se mantenga en los niveles actuales y que no se reduzca el ritmo de ejecuci\u00f3n de los ambiciosos proyectos de inversi\u00f3n previstos para aumentar la capacidad de generaci\u00f3n el\u00e9ctrica renovable.<\/span><\/p>\n

Por otro lado, los objetivos clim\u00e1ticos marcados por la Uni\u00f3n Europea de <\/span>reducir un 55% las emisiones de CO\u2082 para 2030 respecto al nivel de 1990<\/b>, as\u00ed como de lograr la neutralidad clim\u00e1tica en 2050, seguir\u00e1n teniendo un efecto sustancial en el precio a los mercados al por mayor.<\/span><\/p>\n

El BdE hace la reflexi\u00f3n que \u201cbajo el sistema marginalista vigente a los mercados europeos, los precios de la electricidad se fijan a partir de las ofertas de la tecnolog\u00eda m\u00e1s cara necesaria para cubrir la demanda de cada tramo horario\u201d. Por lo tanto, \u201c<\/span>un aumento de la generaci\u00f3n de energ\u00edas renovables afectar\u00eda los precios al por mayor en la medida que desplace en otras tecnolog\u00edas de m\u00e1s coste marginal<\/b> del mix energ\u00e9tico <\/b>necesario para satisfacer la demanda en determinados tramos horarios\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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