{"id":42085,"date":"2024-03-24T20:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-24T19:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/?p=42085"},"modified":"2024-03-24T20:00:55","modified_gmt":"2024-03-24T19:00:55","slug":"deuda-oculta-65-billones-dolares","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/es\/magazine\/deuda-oculta-65-billones-dolares\/","title":{"rendered":"Una deuda oculta de 65 billones de d\u00f3lares"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Els \u2018forwards\u2019 i els \u2018swaps\u2019 de divises generen futures obligacions de pagament que no apareixen en els balan\u00e7os ni en les estad\u00edstiques oficials de deute. Segons el Banc de Pagaments Internacionals, aquest deute ocult ascendeix a 39 bilions de d\u00f2lars en el cas dels bancs i a 26 bilions en el de les entitats no banc\u00e0ries amb seu fora dels Estats Units.<\/b><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

Els \u2018forwards\u2019 de divises s\u00f3n contractes vinculants que fixen el tipus de canvi per a la compra o venda d’una divisa en una data futura, mentre que els \u2018swaps\u2019 de divises s\u00f3n acords entre dues parts per intercanviar pagaments d’interessos de pr\u00e9stecs en dues divises diferents.<\/span><\/p>\n

Els primers serveixen de cobertura davant la volatilitat del mercat canviari. Els segons solen utilitzar-se per aconseguir finan\u00e7ament en moneda estrangera amb un tipus d’inter\u00e8s m\u00e9s favorable que els dels cr\u00e8dits que es poden obtenir en un mercat estranger. Per\u00f2 <\/span>ni els uns ni els altres es reflecteixen en els balan\u00e7os de les empreses<\/b> ni en les estad\u00edstiques oficials de deute.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Creixement exponencial<\/b><\/h3>\n

El problema \u00e9s que, com <\/span>adverteix<\/span><\/a> el Banc de Pagaments Internacionals (BIS per les seves sigles en angl\u00e8s), a mitjan 2022 <\/span>els bancs de fora dels Estats Units amb acc\u00e9s directe al cr\u00e8dit de la Reserva Federal devien uns \u201c39 bilions de d\u00f2lars\u201d<\/b> si sumem els seus \u2018forwards\u2019 i \u2018swaps\u2019 de divises. \u00c9s m\u00e9s del doble del deute en d\u00f2lars que consta en els seus balan\u00e7os i m\u00e9s de deu vegades el seu capital.<\/span><\/p>\n

En el cas de les entitats no banc\u00e0ries amb seu fora dels Estats Units, l’import ascendeix a \u201c26 bilions de d\u00f2lars\u201d<\/b>, el doble del deute en d\u00f2lars que consta en els seus balan\u00e7os i 9 bilions m\u00e9s del que devien l\u2019any 2016.<\/span><\/p>\n

El volum total d’aquest deute gaireb\u00e9 s’ha doblat respecte a l\u2019any 2008<\/b>. Els inversors han aprofitat la relaxaci\u00f3 monet\u00e0ria i uns tipus d’inter\u00e8s ultrabaixos per a augmentar el seu palanquejament a la recerca de majors rendiments.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Fora del balan\u00e7<\/b><\/h3>\n

Aquest mercat de divises porta impl\u00edcit un enorme endeutament en d\u00f2lars que queda ocult, ja que, a difer\u00e8ncia d’altres derivats com els acords de recompra o \u2018repos\u2019, les obligacions de pagament dels \u2018forwards\u2019 i \u2018swaps\u2019 de divises es registren fora del balan\u00e7.<\/span><\/p>\n

Les obligacions de pagament d’aquests derivats ascendeixen a quantitats astron\u00f2miques. <\/span>Considerant totes les divises, els imports pendents a la fi de juny de 2022 van assolir els 97 bilions de d\u00f2lars<\/b>, 30 bilions m\u00e9s que l\u2019any 2016 i pr\u00e0cticament el mateix que el PIB mundial.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nom\u00e9s l’abril de 2022 el volum d’operacions amb aquesta mena de derivats es va acostar als 5 bilions de d\u00f2lars diaris, segons el BIS, dos ter\u00e7os de la facturaci\u00f3 di\u00e0ria mundial de divises.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Protagonisme aclaparador del d\u00f2lar<\/b><\/h3>\n

Com a moneda vehicular,<\/span> el d\u00f2lar es troba a un costat del 88% de les posicions vives<\/b>, segons dades del BIS. I \u00e9s que fins i tot un banc que vulgui fer un \u2018swap\u2019 entre dues divises diferents del d\u00f2lar, recorreria a aquesta moneda com a pas intermedi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Com destaca el BIS, <\/span>\u201cgran part d’aquest deute \u00e9s a molt curt termini\u201d<\/b>, per la qual cosa \u201cles necessitats de refinan\u00e7ament resultants provoquen restriccions de finan\u00e7ament en d\u00f2lars\u201d. De fet, gaireb\u00e9 quatre cinquenes parts dels imports pendents a la fi de juny de 2022 vencien en menys d’un any.<\/span><\/p>\n

La falta d’informaci\u00f3 directa sobre aquests derivats dificulta a les autoritats monet\u00e0ries <\/span>preveure la magnitud i la geografia de les necessitats de refinan\u00e7ament en d\u00f2lars<\/b>. Com a conseq\u00fc\u00e8ncia, resulta m\u00e9s complicat restablir el flux fluid de d\u00f2lars a curt termini en el sistema financer quan \u00e9s necessari, especialment en temps de crisi i quan el d\u00f2lar ha experimentat una important revaloraci\u00f3.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Risc sist\u00e8mic?<\/b><\/h3>\n

Com adverteix el BIS, el palanquejament ocult i el desajustament de venciments en les carteres dels fons de pensions i les companyies d’assegurances \u201cpodrien plantejar un repte pol\u00edtic\u201d per garantir el flux fluid de d\u00f2lars en la pr\u00f2xima gran crisi. Cal no oblidar que <\/span>la demanda de d\u00f2lars augmenta en moments d’incertesa<\/b> en els mercats.<\/span><\/p>\n

A m\u00e9s, donada l’enorme escala d’aquest deute, <\/span>un volum rellevant d’impagaments podria tenir greus efectes<\/b> sist\u00e8mics.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Si vols descobrir la millor opci\u00f3 per protegir els teus estalvis, entra a <\/b>Preciosos 11Onze<\/b><\/a>. T’ajudarem a comprar al millor preu el valor refugi per excel\u00b7l\u00e8ncia: l’or f\u00edsic.<\/b><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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