{"id":35130,"date":"2025-06-10T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-10T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/?p=35130"},"modified":"2025-10-08T15:30:59","modified_gmt":"2025-10-08T13:30:59","slug":"deuda-publica-estimulo-losa-economia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/es\/magazine\/deuda-publica-estimulo-losa-economia\/","title":{"rendered":"Deuda p\u00fablica: \u00bfest\u00edmulo o losa para la econom\u00eda?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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El deute p\u00fablic en el m\u00f3n s’ha disparat en els \u00faltims anys i les seves xifres ja s\u00f3n similars a les del PIB global. Tot i que pot ser un recurs molt \u00fatil per estimular l’economia en moments d’estancament o per millorar la competitivitat d’un pa\u00eds, els actuals nivells de deute generen molta inquietud per com pot llastrar el creixement.<\/b><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

En macroeconomia,<\/span> el deute p\u00fablic no es considera necess\u00e0riament una cosa dolenta<\/b>. De fet, pot ser molt positiva. Tot i que costi digerir aquesta afirmaci\u00f3 contraintu\u00eftiva, la veritat \u00e9s que els Estats l’han utilitzat des de fa segles per finan\u00e7ar-se sense que, en la majoria dels casos, hagi condu\u00eft a la ru\u00efna dels pa\u00efsos.<\/span><\/p>\n

Qu\u00e8 determina llavors la seva incid\u00e8ncia positiva o negativa en l’evoluci\u00f3 de l’economia? Per qu\u00e8 el que hauria de ser un recurs pot convertir-se en una llosa? Hi ha tres factors clau: com s’utilitzen aquests diners, el context competitiu global i el volum de deute.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Oli per al motor econ\u00f2mic<\/b><\/h3>\n

L’economia \u00e9s un complex engranatge que peri\u00f2dicament passa per alts i baixos, en cicles que es van encadenant. Quan aquest engranatge s’encalla, el deute p\u00fablic pot servir com a lubrificant per a millorar el seu funcionament. D’aqu\u00ed ve que els Estats tendeixin a aplicar <\/span>pol\u00edtiques d’inversi\u00f3 p\u00fablica expansives quan l’economia s’estanca<\/b> i hagin d’aprofitar els cicles de creixement econ\u00f2mic, en els quals augmenten els seus ingressos gr\u00e0cies a la major recaptaci\u00f3, per a equilibrar els seus comptes.<\/span><\/p>\n

El deute p\u00fablic t\u00e9 <\/span>conseq\u00fc\u00e8ncies tant en el present com en el futur<\/b>. L’objectiu m\u00e9s immediat \u00e9s facilitar recursos per a evitar el col\u00b7lapse econ\u00f2mic. Si en un context de crisi una empresa normalment rendible veu redu\u00efdes les seves vendes i entra en n\u00fameros vermells, podria arribar a tancar. Com a conseq\u00fc\u00e8ncia, augmentaria l’atur i el que fins llavors eren ingressos per a l’Estat gr\u00e0cies als impostos sobre les seves vendes passarien a ser despeses en forma de prestacions per desocupaci\u00f3. Al seu torn, els menors ingressos dels treballadors reduirien la seva capacitat adquisitiva, amb la qual cosa cada vegada m\u00e9s empreses es veurien en una situaci\u00f3 prec\u00e0ria per la reducci\u00f3 de la demanda.<\/span><\/p>\n

Per aix\u00f2 el deute p\u00fablic s’utilitza en un primer nivell per a frenar la sagnia en situacions excepcionals a trav\u00e9s d’ajudes i est\u00edmuls fiscals que evitin la destrucci\u00f3 de teixit productiu. Aix\u00f2 explica, per exemple, que ara es plantegi una rebaixa en la quota d’aut\u00f2noms per evitar el tancament de moltes microempreses. I fins i tot el subsidi per desocupaci\u00f3 i altres despeses corrents es podrien considerar instruments per evitar que la demanda s\u2019enfonsi en un context d’estancament o recessi\u00f3.<\/span><\/p>\n

Si l’endeutament conjuntural fa possible que el sistema prengui aire i torni a ser competitiu sense els est\u00edmuls p\u00fablics, l’economia podria sortir refor\u00e7ada. Per\u00f2 si aquest endeutament tan sols serveix per mantenir viu el teixit productiu de manera artificial, estar\u00edem davant una economia zombi, incapa\u00e7 de sobreviure sense els est\u00edmuls p\u00fablics, aix\u00ed que <\/span>el deute podria fer-se cr\u00f2nic<\/b>. D’aqu\u00ed la import\u00e0ncia de com s’utilitza el deute p\u00fablic i d’acompanyar aquesta inversi\u00f3 de les necess\u00e0ries reformes estructurals.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Competitivitat, la paraula m\u00e0gica<\/b><\/h3>\n

M\u00e9s enll\u00e0 de parar el cop en una crisi, el deute p\u00fablic tamb\u00e9 <\/span>pot servir per augmentar el potencial de creixement d’una economia<\/b>. La inversi\u00f3 p\u00fablica en infraestructures, educaci\u00f3, sanitat o pol\u00edtiques actives d’ocupaci\u00f3 pot enfortir les bases per al futur desenvolupament.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tot i que en un primer moment poden incrementar-se el d\u00e8ficit i el deute, com a contrapartida tindrem una economia m\u00e9s forta. I aix\u00f2 suposar\u00e0 una major capacitat per fer front al pagament d’interessos i l’amortitzaci\u00f3 del deute gr\u00e0cies a la major recaptaci\u00f3.<\/span><\/p>\n

Un exemple de bona praxi bastant acceptat \u00e9s la inversi\u00f3 que va suposar la American Recovery and Reinvestment <\/span>Act<\/a> <\/span>despr\u00e9s de la crisi financera de 2007-2008. Els m\u00e9s de tres quarts de bili\u00f3 de d\u00f2lars de despesa aprovats pel Congr\u00e9s nord-americ\u00e0 van permetre modernitzar les infraestructures i xarxes tecnol\u00f2giques als Estats Units. A m\u00e9s, la reforma sanit\u00e0ria i del sistema de desocupaci\u00f3 va millorar la cohesi\u00f3 social. Tot aix\u00f2 ha contribu\u00eft al fet que <\/span>l’economia nord-americana es trobi avui dia en una situaci\u00f3 una mica menys compromesa que l’europea<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n

De tota manera, des de fa bastants anys els pa\u00efsos desenvolupats s’enfronten a una <\/span>inquietant p\u00e8rdua de competitivitat<\/b>, la qual cosa complica el seu creixement econ\u00f2mic i limita la seva capacitat per equilibrar els seus nivells de deute.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Els riscos d’un deute excessiu<\/b><\/h3>\n

\u00c9s necessari tenir present que, encara que el deute no sigui dolent en si mateix, suposa un comprom\u00eds de devoluci\u00f3 amb interessos en el futur. I aix\u00f2<\/span> pot arribar a restringir el marge financer i pressupostari de l’Estat<\/b> si no es produeix un augment d’ingressos que el compensi. A m\u00e9s, l’emissi\u00f3 de deute p\u00fablic pot atreure capital que d’una altra manera es destinaria al finan\u00e7ament del sector privat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tot i que el l\u00edmit de deute p\u00fablic que estableix el <\/span>Tractat<\/span><\/a> de Maastricht per als Estats \u00e9s del 60 % del seu PIB, el conjunt de pa\u00efsos de la zona euro ja porta un any per sobre del 100 %, segons dades d’Eurostat. La situaci\u00f3 fora d’Europa no \u00e9s millor, ja que el Fons Monetari Internacional estima que, a finals de 2021, <\/span>el deute p\u00fablic global representava el 100 % del PIB mundial<\/b>. I la situaci\u00f3 podria empitjorar si la crisi s’accentua.<\/span><\/p>\n

Espanya ja porta m\u00e9s d’una d\u00e8cada per sobre de la recomanaci\u00f3 del 60%. De fet, el Fons Monetari Internacional va fer una s\u00e8rie d’advert\u00e8ncies a Espanya al mar\u00e7 pel <\/span>risc que el deute s\u2019estanqui en cotes superiors al 115 % del PIB<\/b>. Per\u00f2, en vista de l’evoluci\u00f3 actual, ser\u00e0 dif\u00edcil que aquesta r\u00e0tio es redueixi en el futur pr\u00f2xim. I m\u00e9s si tenim en compte l’estructura demogr\u00e0fica, que en els pr\u00f2xims anys disparar\u00e0 la despesa en pensions.<\/span><\/p>\n

La majoria d’economistes adverteixen contra aquest exc\u00e9s de deute p\u00fablic<\/b>. \u00c9s significatiu que una revisi\u00f3<\/a> de 40 estudis publicats durant la d\u00e8cada passada indiqui que 36 d’ells conclouen que el deute t\u00e9 una influ\u00e8ncia negativa en el creixement econ\u00f2mic.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

11Onze \u00e9s la fintech comunit\u00e0ria de Catalunya. Obre un compte descarregant la super app El Canut per <\/b>Android<\/b><\/a> o <\/b>iOS<\/b><\/a>. Uneix-te a la revoluci\u00f3!<\/b><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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