{"id":28494,"date":"2022-03-23T21:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-03-23T20:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/?p=28494"},"modified":"2022-03-24T09:28:29","modified_gmt":"2022-03-24T08:28:29","slug":"jaque-bce-economias-fragiles","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/es\/magazine\/jaque-bce-economias-fragiles\/","title":{"rendered":"Jaque del BCE a las econom\u00edas m\u00e1s fr\u00e1giles"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Con la anunciada rebaja de los fondos destinados a la compra de deuda y un aumento de los tipos de inter\u00e9s en el horizonte, el Banco Central Europeo pone en riesgo la recuperaci\u00f3n de los pa\u00edses m\u00e1s endeudados. Estos pueden ser las v\u00edctimas colaterales de la guerra contra la inflaci\u00f3n.<\/b><\/h3>\n

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\u00a0<\/span>\u00bfCrecimiento o estabilidad de precios?<\/b> Este es el dilema que afronta el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) a trav\u00e9s de su pol\u00edtica de compra de deuda y tipos de inter\u00e9s. Y la apuesta a d\u00eda de hoy es clara: su presidenta, Christine Lagarde, quiere evitar a toda costa una inflaci\u00f3n desbocada a pesar de la incertidumbre econ\u00f3mica provocada por la guerra en Ucrania.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0La previsi\u00f3n del BCE es que la subida de precios en la Uni\u00f3n Europea alcance el 5,1% de media este a\u00f1o, casi dos puntos m\u00e1s de lo que preve\u00edan en diciembre. Por ello, <\/span>Lagarde anunci\u00f3 recientemente un endurecimiento de la pol\u00edtica monetaria para contener la inflaci\u00f3n<\/b>: las <\/span>compras<\/a> <\/span>mensuales de deuda del BCE pasar\u00e1n de 40.000 millones de euros en abril a 30.000 millones en mayo y 20.000 millones a partir de junio.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Compra de bonos durante la pandemia<\/b><\/h3>\n

Hasta ahora, <\/span>el BCE adquir\u00eda unos 80.000 millones de deuda al mes<\/b>, tres cuartas partes de ellos al amparo de un <\/span>programa<\/span><\/a> especial creado para afrontar la crisis provocada por la covid-19.<\/span><\/p>\n

La entidad incluso se plantea acabar con la compra neta de deuda si las medidas no son suficientes para atajar la inflaci\u00f3n. Hay que tener en cuenta que durante la pandemia el BCE ha comprado cerca de dos billones de euros en deuda. <\/span>Desde enero de 2020 hasta mediados de 2021, el volumen de deuda de la Eurozona pas\u00f3 de suponer el 86% al 100% del PIB<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Tipos de inter\u00e9s al alza<\/b><\/h3>\n

Adem\u00e1s, <\/span>el BCE anunci\u00f3 que se producir\u00e1 una subida de tipos \u201cgradual\u201d transcurrido alg\u00fan tiempo<\/b>. Los analistas estiman que este cambio de pol\u00edtica podr\u00eda empezar en el \u00faltimo tramo de este a\u00f1o o principios de 2023. De todas formas, la evoluci\u00f3n de la inflaci\u00f3n marcar\u00e1 el calendario y la intensidad.<\/span><\/p>\n

Estas decisiones afectar\u00e1n especialmente a las econom\u00edas espa\u00f1ola, italiana, portuguesa y griega, ya que el BCE est\u00e1 comprando gran parte de la deuda emitida por estos pa\u00edses. <\/span>La deuda en Espa\u00f1a ya supone el 125% del PIB, en Portugal el 140%, en Italia el 160% y en Grecia el 210%<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n

En el caso de Espa\u00f1a, la necesidad de financiaci\u00f3n neta para 2022 se estima en unos 75.000 millones de euros. A la convalecencia de la pandemia que viven sus econom\u00edas, se suma ahora la incertidumbre econ\u00f3mica y la crisis energ\u00e9tica provocadas por la guerra de Ucrania.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Menos margen de maniobra para los m\u00e1s endeudados<\/b><\/h3>\n

El anuncio del BCE de reducir la compra de deuda <\/span>reducir\u00e1 considerablemente la capacidad de los pa\u00edses m\u00e1s endeudados, entre los que se encuentra Espa\u00f1a, para financiar medidas de pol\u00edtica fiscal<\/b> que estimulen la recuperaci\u00f3n, ya sea a trav\u00e9s de subvenciones o una bajada de la presi\u00f3n fiscal a particulares o empresas. Otra consecuencia indeseada podr\u00eda ser que empezaran a subir las primas de riesgo de la deuda de estos pa\u00edses.<\/span><\/p>\n

Todo ello se produce en un <\/span>entorno de gran incertidumbre por la situaci\u00f3n internacional y la evoluci\u00f3n de los precios de la energ\u00eda<\/b>, que repercuten directamente en el precio de la mayor\u00eda de productos.<\/span><\/p>\n

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