{"id":23377,"date":"2026-02-08T20:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-08T19:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/?p=23377"},"modified":"2026-02-02T09:59:48","modified_gmt":"2026-02-02T08:59:48","slug":"algoritmos-economistas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/es\/magazine\/algoritmos-economistas\/","title":{"rendered":"Los algoritmos ahora tambi\u00e9n hacen de economistas"},"content":{"rendered":"
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La automatizaci\u00f3n del trabajo est\u00e1 creando una metamorfosis ocupacional, en la cual se transfieren tareas hechas habitualmente por humanos a un conjunto de tecnolog\u00edas. La econom\u00eda no se salva, y la inteligencia artificial tambi\u00e9n gana terreno. Pero, \u00bflos algoritmos de predicci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica son una alternativa real a los economistas?<\/b><\/h3>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A consecuencia del proceso de digitalizaci\u00f3n de las \u00faltimas d\u00e9cadas se generan <\/span>cantidades ingentes de datos que est\u00e1n transformando los m\u00e9todos con que analizamos los modelos estad\u00edsticos<\/b>. Almacenar, registrar y analizar este flujo constante de informaci\u00f3n se ha convertido en una tarea esencial para el funcionamiento de muchos sectores de la econom\u00eda.<\/span><\/p>\n

Una revoluci\u00f3n tecnol\u00f3gica que ha abierto <\/span>nuevas posibilidades en la capacidad de predicci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica y financiera<\/b>. El an\u00e1lisis de estas grandes bases de datos, lo que se conoce como el \u2018big data\u2019, no ser\u00eda posible sin la inteligencia artificial (IA). Un t\u00e9rmino bastante amplio que engloba todo un conjunto de ideas.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aun as\u00ed, en este \u00e1mbito encontramos dos conceptos: el<\/span> \u2018machine learning\u2019 (ML) y el \u2018deep learning\u2019 (DL)<\/b>, algoritmos matem\u00e1ticos que permiten a los ordenadores identificar patrones en los datos y hacer predicciones imitando los humanos. Dos adelantos computacionales que forman la base de la predicci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica con inteligencia artificial.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Una bola de cristal algor\u00edtmica<\/b><\/h3>\n

Los expertos suelen comparar la predicci\u00f3n algor\u00edtmica con \u201cuna bola de cristal\u201d. Y, de hecho, esta met\u00e1fora es la que encontramos en el t\u00edtulo de un <\/span>estudio<\/b><\/a> interno publicado por el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI)<\/b>, con el cual los autores de la investigaci\u00f3n, Jin-Kyu Jung, Manasa Patnam y Anna Ter-Martirosyan, intentan establecer si los algoritmos de predicci\u00f3n macroecon\u00f3mica pueden mejorar los resultados pronosticados por los mismos economistas del FMI.<\/span><\/p>\n

El estudio aplica tres algoritmos diferentes de aprendizaje autom\u00e1tico a un problema com\u00fan de previsi\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica, y los resultados son sorprendentes. En los tres casos, <\/span>la predicci\u00f3n con algoritmos super\u00f3 ampliamente en exactitud a los economistas<\/b> del Fondo Monetario Internacional.<\/span><\/p>\n

En las observaciones, los autores avisan que todav\u00eda hay factores que requieren m\u00e1s investigaci\u00f3n. Tambi\u00e9n alertan que, para que estas predicciones sean realmente efectivas, se tendr\u00edan que incluir observaciones en tiempo real. As\u00ed mismo, explican que <\/span>hay cierta libertad en la introducci\u00f3n de los par\u00e1metros que usan los algoritmos<\/b>, y que esto puede ser clave para determinar su efectividad.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aun as\u00ed, en su conclusi\u00f3n, coinciden en el hecho que el potencial del \u2018machine learning\u2019 en cuanto al an\u00e1lisis estad\u00edstico de datos econ\u00f3micos es evidente; y que, aunque estas predicciones hechas por algoritmos no pueden sustituir totalmente el trabajo de los economistas, r<\/span>epresentan una valiosa referencia adicional a la hora de tomar decisiones sobre predicci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

11Onze es la fintech comunitaria de Catalu\u00f1a. Abre una cuenta descargando la super app El Canut para <\/b>Android<\/b><\/a> o <\/b>iOS<\/b><\/a>. \u00a1\u00danete a la revoluci\u00f3n!<\/b><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

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