{"id":52149,"date":"2024-09-30T17:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-30T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/?p=52149"},"modified":"2024-09-30T17:04:21","modified_gmt":"2024-09-30T15:04:21","slug":"will-us-economy-enter-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/en\/magazine\/will-us-economy-enter-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"Will the US economy enter a recession?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"component text\">\n  <div class=\"container\">\n\n\n    <div class=\"row\">\n      <div class=\"col  col-lg-8  offset-lg-2\">\n        <h3><b>Some analysts believe that the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve signals that the US economy is already in recession or approaching one. Friday&#8217;s employment report will be another indicator of how far the economy has weakened.<\/b><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The fear of recession in the United States continues to generate anxiety in the markets. While <\/span><b>some experts claim that a recessionary phase is already underway<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, others see indicators suggesting that it could still be avoided in the face of a complex macroeconomic situation that generates uncertainty among analysts and investors alike.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although the US Federal Reserve declared last week that it had begun cutting rates to <\/span><b>recalibrate monetary policy and maintain labour market strength<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, economists such as Mark Spitznagel, chief investment officer and founder of Universa, see these cuts as the start of aggressive interest rate cuts that signal an impending recession.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>\u2018The clock is ticking, and we are in black swan territory,\u2019<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> he told <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/us\/clock-is-ticking-us-recession-return-feds-qe-says-black-swan-fund-2024-09-27\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Reuters<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> last week. Adding that the recent \u2018disinvestment\u2019 of a closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve, a key bond market indicator of a coming recession, signals the imminence of a sharp slowdown.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<h3><b>A downward cycle that feeds itself<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Weakening labour market conditions are particularly worrying when they signal a decline in employment flows, i.e. the movement of people in and out of jobs. This is the view of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thewealthadvisor.com\/article\/bloomberg-economist-forecasts-were-recession-or-heading-towards-one\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Anna Wong<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, who forecasts <\/span><b>a 70% chance that the US economy is already in recession or approaching one.<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While a rise in unemployment is not necessarily alarming if people out of work quickly find another job, Wong notes that hiring has slowed. <\/span><b>Both job vacancies and hiring intentions are declining, which could lead to longer periods of unemployment<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, a pattern that has often been observed in previous recessions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Guy Miller, head of macroeconomics at Zurich, points out that <\/span><b>the strong performance of the US equity market this year has increased the net worth of many investors<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, boosting consumer confidence, so he considers rate cuts in this environment \u2018unusual\u2019. He adds that inflation could be more persistent in the coming year than the market is currently pricing in, as service sector price increases remain high.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Other analysts assume that <\/span><b>the labour market is normalising rather than faltering<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. As the labour market continues to evolve, economists and investors will be watching the data to be released this Friday for any further signs of weakness.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>If you want to discover the best option to protect your savings, enter <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/serveis.11onze.cat\/en\/preciosos-11onze\"><b>Preciosos 11Onze<\/b><\/a><b>. We will help you buy at the best price the safe-haven asset par excellence: physical gold.<\/b><\/p>\n\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"component cards\">\n  <div class=\"container\">\n    <div class=\"row\">\n      <div class=\"col col-xl-8 offset-xl-2\">\n        <h1>If you liked this article, we recommend:<\/h1>\n        <div class=\"cards__wrapper\">\n          <div class=\"card\">\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/en\/magazine\/mario-draghi-new-european-marshall-plan\/\" class=\"card-link\" target=\"_self\"><\/a>\n            <div class=\"card-img\">\n              <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/THUMBNAIL_Pla_Marshall_Europeu-768x512.jpg\" class=\"card-img-top\" alt=\"\">\n                <span class=\"card-category\">Economy<\/span>\n            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"card-body\">\n              <p class=\"card-title p2\"><strong>Mario Draghi\u2019s new European \u2018Marshall Plan\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n              <span class=\"card-time\">3 min read<\/span>\n              <p class=\"card-text small\">The report commissioned by the European Commission&#8230;<\/p>\n            <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n\n          <div class=\"card\">\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/en\/magazine\/federal-reserve-role-global-economy\/\" class=\"card-link\" target=\"_self\"><\/a>\n            <div class=\"card-img\">\n              <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/THUMBNAIL_Reseva-Federal-768x512.png\" class=\"card-img-top\" alt=\"\">\n                <span class=\"card-category\">Economy<\/span>\n            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"card-body\">\n              <p class=\"card-title p2\"><strong>The Federal Reserve\u2019s role in the global economy<\/strong><\/p>\n              <span class=\"card-time\">3 min read<\/span>\n              <p class=\"card-text small\">The Fed, as the central bank of the United States, is&#8230;<\/p>\n            <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n\n          <div class=\"card\">\n            <a href=\"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/en\/magazine\/good-time-buy-gold\/\" class=\"card-link\" target=\"_self\"><\/a>\n            <div class=\"card-img\">\n              <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/THUMBNAIL_Comprar_Or-768x512.jpg\" class=\"card-img-top\" alt=\"\">\n                <span class=\"card-category\">Economy<\/span>\n            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"card-body\">\n              <p class=\"card-title p2\"><strong>Is this a good time to buy gold?<\/strong><\/p>\n              <span class=\"card-time\">3 min read<\/span>\n              <p class=\"card-text small\">The price of gold continues the upward trend seen since&#8230;<\/p>\n            <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n\n              <\/div>\n              <br>\n              <br>\n              <div class=\"cards__wrapper\">\n\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":71,"featured_media":52140,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[172],"class_list":["post-52149","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-economy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Will the US economy enter a recession? 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