{"id":51428,"date":"2024-11-03T20:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-03T19:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/?p=51428"},"modified":"2024-10-30T12:57:51","modified_gmt":"2024-10-30T11:57:51","slug":"gold-prices-us-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/en\/magazine\/gold-prices-us-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold prices and the US elections"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"component text\">\n  <div class=\"container\">\n\n\n    <div class=\"row\">\n      <div class=\"col  col-lg-8  offset-lg-2\">\n        <h3><b>Gold prices tend to rise when geopolitical risks increase. But what relevance does this have concerning a US presidential election, and could a Donald Trump victory send the price of gold upwards, even when it continues to set record highs?<\/b><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The presidential election in the United States on 5 November is fuelling <\/span><b>speculation among investors about how the price of gold may evolve in the days and weeks following the election<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. According to a new <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gold.org\/goldhub\/research\/ballots-bullion-examining-us-elections-effect-gold#:~:text=Gold%20appears%20to%20do%20slightly,the%20six%20months%20post%2Delection.\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">report<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by the World Gold Council (WGC), high geopolitical risk may encourage investors to seek gold as a hedge.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although, historically, gold tends to underperform its long-term average in the run-up to US presidential elections, <\/span><b>US elections have not generally been considered a geopolitical risk<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. This year, however, Juan Carlos Artigas, global head of research at the World Gold Council, warns that these elections \u2018will take place in an environment in which electorates, both in the US and globally, are increasingly polarised and geopolitical risk is significantly elevated.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The WGC analysis suggests that \u2018while demand for bullion and gold coins in the US appears to increase, on average, during Democratic presidencies, other segments of investment demand do not\u2019. He points out that \u2018<\/span><b>party affiliation does not have a consistent impact on price during US elections<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Instead, any president&#8217;s economic policies, both domestic and foreign, are more relevant to the behaviour of financial assets, including gold.\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><b>Is gold apolitical?<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to the study, two opposing trends can be observed: <\/span><b>gold appears to trend upwards six months before the election of a Republican president and remains stable in the post-election period<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Conversely, it falls in price before the election of a Democratic president and falls just below its long-term average in the six months after the election.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That said, the WGC argues that these results are not statistically significant, since there is appreciable variability and there are few examples for each of the cases analysed. Therefore, <\/span><b>the price of gold is likely to respond more to specific policies than to the party affiliation <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">of the president-elect.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In this context, <\/span><b>the policies of tax cuts, tariffs and less regulation promoted by Donald Trump&#8217;s candidacy are seen as inflationary <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">on Wall Street and the Federal Reserve could be forced to raise interest rates again. A scenario that would put gold \u2018in a prime position to rally,\u2019 said Gregory Shearer, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This perception that <\/span><b>gold offers the best hedge for an investment portfolio in the event of Donald Trump retaking the White House <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">seems to be confirmed in the latest Bloomberg <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-07-29\/gold-is-the-besttrump-trade-survey-shows\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">survey<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. \u201cProponents of the precious metal as a haven play in case of Trump\u2019s reelection outnumbered those picking the US dollar two-to-one among the 480 respondents\u201d, the news agency explained.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>If you want to discover the best option to protect your savings, enter <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/serveis.11onze.cat\/en\/preciosos-11onze\"><b>Preciosos 11Onze<\/b><\/a><b>. 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