{"id":48718,"date":"2024-02-22T17:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-22T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/?p=48718"},"modified":"2024-02-23T08:43:53","modified_gmt":"2024-02-23T07:43:53","slug":"triple-eu-intermediaries-sell-russia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/en\/magazine\/triple-eu-intermediaries-sell-russia\/","title":{"rendered":"The triple EU: intermediaries to sell in Russia"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"component text\">\n  <div class=\"container\">\n\n\n    <div class=\"row\">\n      <div class=\"col  col-lg-8  offset-lg-2\">\n        <h3><b>The European rhetoric has been clear for two years: it is necessary to economically block Russia. That is why trade ties with the country led by Putin were broken. But the reality is that the countries of the European Union skip their own sanctions and sell to Russia through countries like Kyrgyzstan, Georgia or Kazakhstan, making the Russian economy the fastest growing in the G7.<\/b><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On the second anniversary of <\/span><b>Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine, it is impossible to predict how much longer this war will last or who will win it<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. What can already be said is that European pressure measures have not been of much use, if the objective was to suffocate Russia economically. A few weeks ago the <\/span><b>International Monetary Fund had to revise its forecasts for the Russian economy<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. They had estimated that Russian GDP would stagnate in 2023 at 1.1% growth and finally stood at 2.6%, <\/span><b>becoming the fastest growing G7 economy<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Not only that, the Russian government estimates that in 2024 its growth will accelerate to 3.5%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">How is it possible, if the EU has approved more than a dozen economic and trade sanctions to strangle the economy of its Russian neighbours? <\/span><b>Because the reality is that the European positioning is more rhetorical than real<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Blocking Russia seriously would imply much more serious damage to the economy of some European countries that are not there to shoot rockets, never better said. European hypocrisy has been highlighted for months by <\/span><b>Robin Brooks, former IMF economist<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. A sufficiently clear example: exports of cars, engines, or vehicle parts from <\/span><b>Germany to Kyrgyzstan have increased by 5,500%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">German exports of motor vehicles and parts (blue) to Kyrgyzstan are up 5500% since Russia invaded Ukraine. You don&#39;t have to be a rocket scientist to know that all this stuff is heading to Russia. It&#39;s not like Kyrgyzstan is suddenly in a massive boom. Germany has to stop this&#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/aVZs7Ji3mO\">pic.twitter.com\/aVZs7Ji3mO<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Robin Brooks (@robin_j_brooks) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/robin_j_brooks\/status\/1728767789065023758?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 26, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Could this country neighbouring Russia and with only 6.6 million inhabitants have a sudden interest in German engines? Sure. Definitely. But it i<\/span><b>s still surprising that this furore for German industry also extends to <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/robin_j_brooks\/status\/1736314322962338224?s=20\"><b>Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, and Kazakhstan<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Is it a problem only in Germany? It seems not, because exports from the entire European Union just to Armenia have grown by 430%. We are facing a very clear act of fooling by the European Union: I announce that I am sanctioning Russia, and I am not selling anything directly to it, but I am selling it through other countries.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While Russia has increased commercial ties with China and India, the main recipients of Russian oil. In fact, in this sense the European blockade is once again ridiculous, because <\/span><b>Russia&#8217;s production of barrels of oil remains stable at 9.5 million barrels per day<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Exactly what they made before the sanctions, they have only changed clients.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Russians see how their economy has been mobilized towards the war effort, <\/span><b>increasing spending on weapons production to reach 40% of GDP<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. It is an effort that also pushes economic growth in the short term, but evidently does not have the same return as the productive economy. However, Russia seems capable of sustaining the attack for as long as it deems necessary.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For its part, the <\/span><b>European Union has already been warning <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">its member countries to prepare to mobilize their economies towards a war economy. Recently, <\/span><b>Ursula Von der Leyen<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> has announced her willingness to continue presiding over the European Commission and, in an interview on <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/es.euronews.com\/embed\/2482098\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Euronews<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, she explained that <\/span><b>one of her main objectives is to continue increasing defence spending<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Now some <\/span><b>350,000 million<\/b> <b>euros annually<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> are estimated. To measure the volume, it is necessary to understand that it is a figure equivalent to the entire budget of the Spanish government.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><b>The seized money<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One of the first major international sanctions was the order to block <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/mundo\/articles\/cx7le2eexxlo\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$300 billion<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> from Russia in accounts outside the country. Now, as the US government finds it increasingly difficult to continue funding the defence of Ukraine, voices are beginning to appear calling for <\/span><b>the money seized from the Russians to be used in the war against Russia<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. This would prevent, they argue, Western economies from continuing to go into debt to finance the conflict. They would take the money for<\/span><b> future reparations from Russia in Ukraine<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, but this manoeuvre creates many problems.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The main one is trust, because central banks should normally stay out of these types of confrontations between countries. Violating the deposit safety rule was already astonishing, using these funds could <\/span><b>generate a greater crisis of confidence in the banking system<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Because? Because in Western banks there are billions from countries in the Arabian Peninsula, Central Asia and Africa. If these clients felt threatened and withdrew their money, <\/span><b>the international banking system would be seriously compromised<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, as was already seen with the case from Credit Suisse.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The forecasts, therefore, are very uncertain. The only thing that seems clear is that<\/span><b> Putin remains determined and that the European Union will continue to cheat itself<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Meanwhile, Russians and Ukrainians continue to die every day in the senseless war. Given the need to renew troops, the Ukrainian government is considering mobilizing 500,000 civilians. 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