{"id":45205,"date":"2025-10-08T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-08T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/magazine\/ray-dalio-pronostica-collapse-financer\/"},"modified":"2025-10-08T09:01:18","modified_gmt":"2025-10-08T07:01:18","slug":"ray-dalio-predicts-financial-collapse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/en\/magazine\/ray-dalio-predicts-financial-collapse\/","title":{"rendered":"Ray Dalio predicts a financial collapse"},"content":{"rendered":"
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L\u2019inversor nord-americ\u00e0 torna a avisar que els Estats Units estan en perill d\u2019un col\u00b7lapse financer perqu\u00e8 s\u2019est\u00e0 generant massa deute i hi ha escassetat de compradors. A m\u00e9s, apunta que la inflaci\u00f3, els baixos tipus d\u2019inter\u00e8s i la fragmentaci\u00f3 pol\u00edtica empitjoraran la situaci\u00f3.<\/b><\/h3>\n

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Ray Dalio, reconegut inversor i fundador del fons d’inversi\u00f3 Bridgewater Associates, fa mesos que va avisant del perill d\u2019un col\u00b7lapse financer. Durant les negociacions sobre el sostre de deute per evitar una suspensi\u00f3 de pagaments de l\u2019administraci\u00f3 americana, Dalio explicava en un post a LinkedIn que <\/span>no n\u2019hi havia prou amb acordar un nou l\u00edmit de deute si no es concretava com contenir o reduir la despesa<\/b> i que \u201caugmentar el l\u00edmit del deute de la manera en qu\u00e8 el Congr\u00e9s i els presidents han fet repetidament conduir\u00e0 finalment a un col\u00b7lapse financer desastr\u00f3s”.<\/span><\/p>\n

De fet, no cal ser un gur\u00fa de les finances per saber que <\/span>gastar m\u00e9s del que guanyem i finan\u00e7ar-ho amb deute \u00e9s la recepta perfecte pel desastre econ\u00f2mic<\/b>. Aix\u00f2, per\u00f2, no \u00e9s necess\u00e0riament sempre veritat si tens la capacitat d\u2019imprimir diners sense conseq\u00fc\u00e8ncies. L\u2019hegemonia del d\u00f2lar com a moneda de reserva mundial i la demanda assegurada d\u2019aquesta divisa gr\u00e0cies al reciclatge de petrod\u00f2lars atorga als Estats Units una de facto \u201ctargeta black\u201d que els permet gastar diners sense gaires preocupacions.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Quan no es pot satisfer als deutors i creditors<\/b><\/h3>\n

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Tot i aquest comod\u00ed, el fundador de Bridgewater apunta que a la llarga no \u00e9s sostenible, perqu\u00e8 <\/span>l’augment dels actius i passius de deute m\u00e9s r\u00e0pid que els ingressos acaba per fer impossible pagar un tipus d\u2019inter\u00e8s que satisfaci els creditors, i al que hi puguin fer front els deutors<\/b>. \u00c9s a dir, els tipus d\u2019inter\u00e8s han de ser prou alts perqu\u00e8 el creditor obtingui un bon rendiment pels seus diners, per\u00f2 no fins al punt que el deutor no pugui pagar el seu deute.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aix\u00ed mateix, argumenta que aquest escenari <\/span>pot conduir al p\u00e0nic i acabar creant una crisi de deute semblant a la reacci\u00f3 en cadena que precedeix a les crisis banc\u00e0ries<\/b>, per\u00f2 en aquest cas contra el banc central i amb bons del govern. Una situaci\u00f3 que descriu com desastrosa que \u201ccausar\u00e0 un desgavell financer i trastorns socials\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

En aquest context, l\u2019inversor creu que ens estem acostant a aquest punt d’inflexi\u00f3 en qu\u00e8 <\/span>la quantitat de deute em\u00e8s pel govern superar\u00e0 la demanda, la qual cosa obligaria a una impressi\u00f3 ingent de diners i una venda de bons governamentals<\/b> que posaria al banc central en una posici\u00f3 insostenible. En altres paraules, els creditors no prestaran m\u00e9s diners i vendran els seus actius de deute -provocant una pujada dels tipus d’inter\u00e8s- o for\u00e7aran que el banc central imprimeixi m\u00e9s diners i compri deute en un intent de mantenir els tipus d\u2019inter\u00e8s baixos, per tant, creant inflaci\u00f3 i provocant una contracci\u00f3 de l\u2019activitat econ\u00f2mica.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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Com evitar o preparar-se pel col\u00b7lapse<\/b><\/h3>\n

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\u201cCrec que s\u2019ha de <\/span>reformar el sistema i donar una resposta expeditiva amb un bipartidisme intel\u00b7ligent<\/b>\u201d, apunta Dalio en una entrevista a <\/span>Bloomberg<\/span><\/a>. I afegeix, \u201cSi seguim per aquest cam\u00ed, en termes del que \u00e9s probable en els pr\u00f2xims cinc i deu anys, s’arribaria a un punt en el qual aquest acte d’equilibri es fa molt dif\u00edcil”.<\/span><\/p>\n

En qualsevol cas, aquestes mesures o canvi de paradigma depenen en gran part dels pol\u00edtics, sobre els quals la poblaci\u00f3 no t\u00e9 gaire influ\u00e8ncia independentment dels resultats electorals. Cal recordar que <\/span>els interessos de la banca i dels poders f\u00e0ctics tenen <\/b>prioritat <\/b><\/a>\u00a0per sobre dels de la ciutadania<\/b>. Davant d\u2019una crisi financera nom\u00e9s una minoria selecta t\u00e9 acc\u00e9s a informaci\u00f3 privilegiada que li permet assessorar la gravetat de la situaci\u00f3 per protegir els seus estalvis.<\/span><\/p>\n

Llavors, com podem protegir les nostres finances davant d\u2019un desastre econ\u00f2mic que sembla m\u00e9s que probable? Ray Dalio ho t\u00e9 clar, encara que <\/span>reconeix<\/span><\/a> que t\u00e9 una \u201cpetita\u201d quantitat de bitcoin, prefereix l\u2019or, al que descriu com \u201cuniversal i atemporal\u201d, i continua “<\/span>no entenc per qu\u00e8 la gent s’inclina m\u00e9s pel bitcoin que per l’or<\/b>. Si ens fixem en l’\u00e0mbit internacional, l\u2019or \u00e9s, per als bancs centrals, el tercer actiu de reserva\u201d. I \u00e9s que en aquest context econ\u00f2mic la compra d\u2019or \u00e9s una de les poques opcions que tenen, no nom\u00e9s els bancs, sin\u00f3, la gent per salvaguardar els seus diners.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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Si vols descobrir la millor opci\u00f3 per protegir els teus estalvis, entra a <\/b>Preciosos 11Onze<\/b><\/a>. T\u2019ajudarem a comprar al millor preu el valor refugi per excel\u00b7l\u00e8ncia: l\u2019or f\u00edsic.<\/b><\/p>\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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