{"id":38559,"date":"2023-12-30T21:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-12-30T20:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/?p=38559"},"modified":"2023-12-30T21:44:45","modified_gmt":"2023-12-30T20:44:45","slug":"cryptocurrencies-volatile-asset","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.11onze.cat\/en\/magazine\/cryptocurrencies-volatile-asset\/","title":{"rendered":"Cryptocurrencies, a highly volatile asset"},"content":{"rendered":"
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If there is one thing that characterises the cryptocurrency market, it is its high volatility. As it is a relatively small market in which a large part of the cryptocurrencies are concentrated in a few hands, speculation by large investors tends to generate large fluctuations due to their pulling power and the intangible value of cryptoassets.<\/b><\/h3>\n

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The financial crisis of 2007-2008 led Satoshi Nakamoto to create <\/span>a cryptocurrency that would escape the traditional financial system: bitcoin<\/b>. In the first transaction, which took place at the beginning of 2009, its value was residual: only 0.00076 dollars.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Since then, the price of bitcoin has soared, albeit with enormous volatility<\/b>. If we analyse its evolution over the last two years, we can see that it went from less than 10,000 euros in September 2020 to more than 50,000 half a year later, only to fall back below 30,000 four months later. And, after further rallies, which took it to a valuation in November 2021 of 58,358 euros, its historical maximum, the successive falls of the “crypto-winter” have placed it at around 20,000 today, practically a third of its higher value.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Bitcoin is no exception. Volatility is also affecting other cryptocurrencies<\/b>. For example, ether lost two-thirds of its value between April and June, going from more than 3,000 euros to less than 1,000 euros, before rising back above 1,900 in mid-August and dropping below 1,400 from mid-September onwards.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Terra luna, the most notorious case, went from being worth more than 80 euros at the beginning of May to being practically worthless in little more than a week. And yet it was a ‘stablecoin’, i.e. a cryptocurrency whose value is linked to that of another currency, commodity or financial instrument, which should provide more stability.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Little tangible value<\/b><\/h3>\n

Cryptocurrencies have gained a lot of prominence in the financial world in recent years. A <\/span>report<\/span><\/a> by the Bank of Spain estimates that <\/span>the cryptoassets market reached a capitalisation of $2.8 trillion in 2021<\/b>, approximately 1 % of global financial assets.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Even so, <\/span>they still lack the acceptance of traditional assets such as equities or gold<\/b>. Economists such as Paul Krugman and business leaders such as Warren Buffett have even described them as a “mirage” and have even predicted their demise.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is true that the gold or equity markets are no strangers to speculation either, but<\/span> gold or listed companies have a more obvious intrinsic value<\/b>. Gold has long been used as a medium of exchange and is a reasonably stable commodity in terms of price, demand and supply. Listed companies, on the other hand, have properties, customers, cash flows and income statements that give them a more tangible value.<\/span><\/p>\n

While no one can deny that blockchain provides benefits such as security, decentralisation, cost reduction and speed, <\/span>it is still tricky to specify the real value that cryptocurrencies bring to their owners<\/b>. And that is fertile ground for volatility.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A poorly regulated market<\/b><\/h3>\n

Nor does the lack of a governing or controlling body<\/b>, as is the case with fiat currency, shares or bonds, help stability. In this sense, progressively increasing regulation could contribute to greater adoption, although over-regulation could be counterproductive.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hence, <\/span>the European Union has published a <\/b>proposal<\/b><\/a> for a regulation<\/b> affecting cryptoasset issuers, exchange platforms and digital currency wallets. This regulation aims to facilitate the supervision of the sector and prevent market manipulation.<\/span><\/p>\n

The power of the whales<\/b><\/h3>\n

Without a clear real value, cryptocurrencies are highly speculative assets<\/b>, so they are much more sensitive to one-off movements by large investors, which trigger chain reactions up or down.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It should be borne in mind that the cryptocurrency market is still very small compared to other assets and that a considerable part of it is in the hands of a few investors, known as “whales”. Per Wimmer, founder of Wimmer Financial LLP, has even <\/span>warned<\/span><\/a> that the cryptocurrency market is dominated by ten whales.<\/span><\/p>\n

This may be an exaggeration, but the truth is that, according to the US National Bureau of Economic Research, <\/span>by the end of 2020 a third of all bitcoins were in the hands of just 10,000 <\/b>investors<\/b><\/a>. This concentration means that their decisions can more easily destabilise the market, as their relative weight is much greater.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Speculative manoeuvres<\/b><\/h3>\n

In order to get rich, some whales start selling a large volume of cryptocurrencies at below-market prices. This triggers panic and sales by small investors skyrocket. Once the price bottoms out, the whales take the opportunity to buy back more cryptocurrencies.<\/span><\/p>\n

Massive adoption of cryptocurrencies, which would reduce the relative weight of large investors, would therefore help to stabilise the market<\/b>. This would require them to be on a par with fiat currencies so that they are perceived as a stable value and can be more easily exchanged for goods and services. Utility is a key element in establishing the value of an asset, and the potential of cryptocurrencies is still being explored.<\/span><\/p>\n

Media noise<\/b><\/h3>\n

The subjective value of cryptocurrencies also makes them very sensitive to media noise<\/b>. For example, when Tesla announced that cryptocurrencies would not be accepted as a means of payment, the value of bitcoin plummeted, while Elon Musk’s support for dogecoin on <\/span>Twitter<\/span><\/a> was enough to send the value of this cryptocurrency soaring.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

If the news around a cryptocurrency is positive or an influencer generates positive sentiment towards it, demand and price increase. The opposite happens when the news or sentiment is negative.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is still too early to tell whether markets will stabilise in the future<\/b> and cryptocurrencies will be able to be traded like fiat currencies. What is clear is that the amount of capital invested in cryptocurrencies would have to grow a lot for volatility to be reduced.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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