Is a 100% renewable energy model possible?

Climate change is the biggest challenge facing humanity and halting global warming is essential to ensure our survival. The transition to cleaner and renewable energy sources is a key factor in achieving this. But to what extent is it feasible?

 

The World Economic Forum’s latest Global Risks Report 2024 finds that extreme weather events, biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and natural resource scarcity pose the greatest risk to humanity over the next decade.

The main cause is the burning of fossil fuels, which has increased as the human population has grown. Their combustion generates greenhouse gases that trap the sun’s rays in the earth’s atmosphere, raising the average surface temperature of the planet.

 

No time to stop global warming

Greenhouse gas emissions reached record highs in the past decade. Although their rate of growth has slowed, the report “Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change” warns that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will only be possible if there is an immediate and deep reduction in emissions.

To achieve this, emissions would have to be cut by almost half by 2030 and be zero by mid-century. At the COP28 summit in Dubai last December, it was agreed to triple the use of renewable energy in the next five years.

Yet, the world still consumes over 35 billion barrels of oil yearly. This dependence on fossil fuels is unsustainable, both from a production and environmental point of view. Experts estimate that 40% of the world’s oil reserves have already been exhausted and that, at the current rate, there are only about 50 years left.

 

Can the world run on renewable energy alone?

Renewable energy is any type of energy that comes from a source that does not run out over time. There are many renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind or geothermal energy, and they are important because, unlike hydrocarbons, they are infinite and produce almost no polluting emissions.

The main problem with renewable energies is the instability of their production and storage so that they can be easily distributed. In other words, they are limited in terms of their availability and location, which makes them unprofitable. However, the cost could be reduced by developing more advanced technologies to capture energy and transport it more efficiently.

In this context, a study by IRENA, the International Renewable Energy Agency, shows that a 100% renewable energy model is possible and points the way towards a 45% reduction in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from 2010 levels by 2030, and net-zero emissions by 2050.

IRENA’s analysis concludes that we already have the technologies that can lead us to a decarbonised energy system, with solutions that can be deployed rapidly and at scale. The study shows that more than 90% of the solutions that make the 2050 goal possible involve renewables through direct supply, electrification, energy efficiency, green hydrogen and bioenergy combined with carbon capture and storage.

The Agency argues that the increase in electricity prices on the wholesale market has been caused by the high price of gas from which electricity is produced because, right now, renewables do not provide the stability needed to guarantee electricity supply. Therefore, the sooner we achieve a decarbonised economy, the sooner we will leave behind this dependence and the extreme price variations associated with it.

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In addition to gold’s usefulness in the financial, ornamental and technological fields, it can also contribute to the sustainability of the planet. Research has found that a nanoparticle catalyst of this precious metal can convert waste materials, such as biomass and polyester, into useful organic silicon compounds. 

 

Plastic waste is a problem for humanity. That is why many resources are being invested in the search for ways to recycle them and give them a new useful life. Several lines of research aim to convert these waste materials into useful compounds and products in an efficient way.

One of them, involving scientists at Tokyo Metropolitan University, has found that gold nanoparticles supported on a zirconium oxide support can convert waste materials, such as biomass and polyester, into organosilane compounds, which are valuable chemicals with a wide range of applications. The results of their study were recently published in the prestigious Journal of the American Chemical Society.

The new protocol takes advantage of the combination of gold nanoparticles with a zirconium oxide support, whose characteristics allow it to react both as a base and as an acid. This makes it possible to recycle the waste under less demanding conditions and in a more environmentally friendly way than with the systems investigated so far.

New life for plastic waste

The research team has been working for some time on converting plastic and biomass into organosilanes, which are organic molecules with a silicon atom attached to carbon used in high-quality coatings and in the production of pharmaceuticals and agrochemicals. 

The problem until now was that the addition of the silicon atom involved the use of air- and moisture-sensitive reagents that require high temperatures and extremely acidic or basic conditions. As a result, the conversion process was not at all environmentally efficient.

A key step

The big finding is that the new gold nanoparticle catalyst causes ether and ester groups, both of which are abundant in plastics such as polyester and biomass compounds such as cellulose, to react with the disilane to form useful organosilanes. All that is needed is gentle heating in solution

The researchers have identified that the key to the effectiveness of this conversion lies in the combination of the gold nanoparticles and the amphoteric nature of the zirconium oxide support, i.e. its ability to act interchangeably as a base and an acid.

Double advantage

Not only does this system allow polyesters to be decomposed under much less demanding conditions than those used so far. More importantly, the reaction products are valuable compounds ready for use. 

The research team hopes that this new way of producing organosilanes will lead to a carbon-neutral future by allowing plastic waste to be recycled efficiently and preventing thousands of tonnes of plastic waste from burning in incineration plants.

 

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La “mineria urbana”, que consisteix a recuperar i reaprofitar els metalls presents en vehicles, motors, electrodomèstics, bateries i dispositius electrònics, podria cobrir totes les nostres necessitats de metalls com l’or o el coure, sense necessitat d’obrir noves mines. Molts immigrants irregulars, uns 50.000 només a Barcelona, sobreviuen gràcies a aquesta activitat en condicions precàries.

 

L’elevada demanda d’alguns metalls està provocant l’obertura de noves mines, que són poc sostenibles des d’un punt de vista mediambiental. De fet, la mineria tradicional genera cada any a la Unió Europea 150.000 milions de tones de runam i 12.000 milions de tones de llots. Una alternativa seria potenciar la mineria urbana. Es calcula que, a més de minimitzar la generació de residus, la mesura permetria reduir un 76% la contaminació dels aqüífers i un 40% el consum d’aigua.

Malgrat l’augment de la demanda previst per a les pròximes dècades, un informe d’Ecologistes en Acció adverteix que la mineria urbana bastaria per a cobrir el 100% de les necessitats de metalls com l’or o el coure, i més de la meitat de les de neodimi i níquel. En el cas del cobalt i el liti, la demanda dels quals està creixent exponencialment, la recuperació serviria per a cobrir el 8,3% i el 2,7%, respectivament. No obstant això, gran part d’aquests metalls acaben desaprofitats en abocadors.

 

Ni pagats ni reconeguts

Tot i que l’or es troba 100 vegades més concentrat en un telèfon mòbil que en les mines de major llei, la recuperació de metalls com aquest es veu frenada per motius econòmics: amb la legislació actual, surt més a compte extreure’ls de les mines que recuperar-los dels aparells rebutjats. I això que part del procés sol fer-se de manera informal.

Només a Barcelona pot haver-hi més de 50.000 persones que cada dia realitzen llargues jornades recollint peces metàl·liques, com explica Federico Demaria, professor d’Economia ecològica i Ecologia política de la Universitat de Barcelona. En molts casos són subsaharians sense papers que no poden regularitzar la seva situació. De fet, l’1 de març se celebra el Dia Mundial del Reciclador pel servei que presten aquest tipus de persones al medi ambient i a la societat de manera precària. Sense ells, gran part de la ferralla acabaria en abocadors.

A diferència d’algunes empreses privades que cobren de l’Administració per recollir, transportar i reciclar aquests materials, aquests recicladors informals contribueixen a l’economia circular sense cap mena d’ajuda. Es limiten a recollir el material metàl·lic de pisos i locals en obres, o el que troben al carrer, per a vendre’l a petites deixalleries legalitzades. Al seu torn, aquestes el canalitzen cap a la indústria recicladora establerta, que mou milers de milions d’euros.

 

Una vida precària

Un estudi del Gremi de Recuperació de Catalunya calcula que del més de mig milió de tones de residus metàl·lics que es van recuperar a Catalunya l’any 2013, almenys una cinquena part l’havien recollit els recicladors informals.

Fa uns anys l’Ajuntament de Barcelona va impulsar la creació d’Alencop, una cooperativa pionera que va regularitzar la situació d’una trentena d’aquests recicladors informals. Tot i que aquesta iniciativa va haver de baixar la persiana arran de la pandèmia, part de la seva plantilla es va integrar en una empresa privada sense ànim de lucre anomenada Andròmines.

Els seus treballadors es poden considerar uns privilegiats dins d’un col·lectiu que malviu pels carrers de la Ciutat Comtal. I la situació podria empitjorar per a molts d’ells per la seva falta de visibilitat. Cal no oblidar que existeixen grans interessos econòmics entorn de la indústria del reciclatge. Les empreses de gestió de residus, la majoria privades i amb plantilles subrogades, poden moure fitxa per a que el model de recollida s’emmotlli encara més als seus interessos i empenyi una mica més cap als marges als recicladors informals.

 

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Is it possible to stop global warming? For nearly a decade, Project Drawdown has insisted that this is not a utopia if the right measures are taken to stop the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

 

With greenhouse gas emissions reaching record highs in the past decade, the pace of global warming has intensified. Temperatures are rising at a rate of almost 0.2 °C per decade. Worse still, it could rise by a further 1.5 °C between 2030 and 2052, according to a UN report.

In this context, the publication in 2017 of the book ‘Drawdown’ generated a huge media echo. With nearly a hundred proposals, it was the most comprehensive plan to reverse global warming to date. The title referred to that desired future moment when the levels of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere stop rising and begin a gradual decline that avoids catastrophic consequences. 

The book’s editorial team continued to advance their proposals to reach that “crucial point for life on Earth; a point we must reach as quickly, safely and equitably as possible”, as detailed on their website. In 2020, they published “The Drawdown Report”, which updates their proposals and sets out a series of fundamental reflections on climate balance.

 

A reference report

Its solutions place particular emphasis on the areas of energy, industry, food, transport and construction, which account for 90% of greenhouse gas emissions. The proposals, which are intended to serve as a starting point for legislators, institutions and individuals, are based on ten key ideas that should guide humanity’s efforts to avert environmental disaster. 

  1. It is possible to reach the drawdown point by mid-century. Yes, despite the difficulties, it is possible to halt emissions’ growth, but this requires maximising the climate solutions available today. As the report warns, “available is better than new, and society is ready to start such a transformation today”. 
  2. A comprehensive system of solutions is needed. There is no single, miracle cure for a problem as complex as the climate crisis. Many of the solutions can be combined and made to feedback on each other for the most significant possible impact. For example, efficient buildings make renewable electricity generation more viable. 
  3. Solutions rarely have only one climate impact. Many of them can generate employment, improve resilience to climate impacts such as storms and droughts, and provide other environmental benefits such as the preservation of water resources. 
  4. The savings from climate solutions significantly outweigh the costs. Arguments about the lack of economic viability of climate action are false. The report estimates that net operational savings are four to five times the net implementation costs. And if we take into account the financial value of the associated benefits, such as savings in health services through reduced pollution, and avoided climate damage, such as reduced agricultural losses, the economic case is even stronger.
  5. It is essential to promote solutions that reduce or replace the use of fossil fuels. The use of fossil fuels for electricity, transport and heating generates two-thirds of the world’s heat-trapping gas emissions. Hence, the importance of this section. Approximately 30% of the solutions proposed in the report calls for a reduction in the use of fossil fuels through increased efficiency, and almost another 30% propose alternatives. These measures, which range from boosting solar and wind energy to retrofitting buildings, can provide almost two-thirds of the emission reductions needed to reach the drawdown point. 
  6. Nature’s carbon sinks must be encouraged. If we want to prevent the water in a bathtub from overflowing, we can turn off the tap, but we can also remove the stopper so that the liquid goes down the drain. A similar thing happens with carbon in nature. Human activities can enhance natural carbon sinks, and many ecosystem-based or agriculture-related climate solutions have the dual benefit of reducing emissions and sequestering carbon. 
  7. More attention should be paid to some of the most impactful climate solutions. The report warns that beyond onshore wind turbines and industrial-scale photovoltaic plants, progress is needed in areas such as reducing food waste and improving the disposal of chemical refrigerants, which are potent greenhouse gases. 
  8. Accelerators are needed to drive solutions at the scale, speed and scope required. Some accelerators, such as policy change and capital displacement, are closer to home and have more direct impacts. Others, such as cultural change and political empowerment, are more distant and indirect in their effects. 
  9. Changes must be made at all levels, from the individual to the global. The climate crisis requires systemic and structural changes in our society. Interventions are needed at the individual, community, organisational, regional, national and global levels to maximise benefits and achieve transformation. 
  10. Much commitment, collaboration and ingenuity will be needed to reverse the current situation. The report warns that “the path we are on is far more than risky, and it is easy to feel paralysed by that danger”. However, it also stresses that change is possible: “together we can build a bridge from where we are now to the world we want” for generations to come.

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How does livestock management affect the environment? Two livestock associations in Segrià (Lleida) have turned the problem of slurry into a solution. They have created a pioneering composting plant in the country. We talk about it in a new episode of People, with Miquel Serra, one of the promoters of the project.

 

With no more than 10,000 inhabitants, Alcarràs is the municipality in Europe with the highest density of farms per square kilometre. In total, it has 45,000 steers, 35,000 pig mothers, and some 250,000 fattening cattle. That is why, for the neighbours, the management of the nitrogen produced by the slurry was of the utmost importance to comply with European environmental standards. This is how the composting plant project was born, promoted by the two large livestock organisations in the municipality, to convert the slurry into fertiliser.

And they did it collectively, as Serra recalls. The project cost them 1.5 million euros. “Cattle manure is better managed. And on pig farms, where we have solid and liquid manure separators, we were interested in being able to manage solid manure. The composting plant had to allow us to manage both manures separately, because cattle manure is classified as organic production, and pig manure is not, although it can be used for conventional agriculture,” explains Serra, who is a member of the driving force behind Alcarràs Bioproductors.

An exceptional case

And why aren’t there more composting plants like the one in Alcarràs all over the country? “Until now, all composting plants have been set up by people who wanted to do business. And one way was to manage other by-products that are difficult to treat and for which the businesses paid the composting plants. This is what made them viable”, explains Serra.

On the other hand, in Alcarràs they wanted a manure and slurry composting, without looking for profitability first, but rather the environmental benefit and the continuity of their farms, and this makes it a unique case in Spain. “We have to think that our business is to produce meat”, argues the promoter, who explains that, nevertheless, there are already three multinationals that have shown interest in buying the compost they will produce. “In the end, we are convinced that we will manage to make it viable”, he acknowledges.

As for financing, they have not yet considered European funds, because the initiative was born before, but Serra explains that they feel very supported by the Department of Agriculture and the Diputació de Lleida. “Through the BioHub Km 0 project, designed to reactivate the economy of the area, we have been able to manage a small grant that allows us to be more ambitious,” explains Serra. In fact, the composting plant is just the first step towards a larger circular and sustainable economy project. The idea is to generate an alternative that allows us to conserve and value the talent of the territory. Turning slurry into compost may be the ultimate sustainable solution, but more uses are still being investigated. For example, cellulose can be extracted from manure and used to make fabrics. Perhaps the future of sustainable fashion will be to wear clothes made out of manure.

 

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The demands of the peasants and farmers, which are part of a European-wide unrest, present the country with a colossal challenge. The one to decide if Catalonia should be food sovereign or if it should renounce its own land. In 11Onze we have it clear: you don’t play with food.

 

Everyone knows that the primary sector is essential, but it seems that we sometimes forget it. That’s why Catalan farmers, like Europeans, are on a war footing. The demands are simple and could be summed up in one: have some respect for a sector that puts the plate on the table for Catalonia of the 8 million.

Excessive bureaucracy, economic suffocation and regulatory pressure are the battle horses of some farmers who see that the poor conditions in their sector discourage the possible generational change. Nowadays, the peasant is a romantic with a tractor. People who love the land and work for it even if they don’t earn a living. Complaints of having to sell below the cost of production are endemic, and for some time now the lack of protection of farmers against intermediaries, large chains and the importation of products from other countries, which very often do not meet the very demanding regulations that are asked of European farmers and ranchers.

 

The European greyness

Catalan food sovereignty is in question, in part, due to the European regulatory scourge. The EU, governed from the gray Brussels, pushes its convoluted regulations down. The bureaucratic labyrinth launches itself towards the immediately lower rung of the chain and goes down through the administrations until it falls on its face in front of peasants unable to manage this hellish list. The wisest people in the world, the ones who know how to create food, are asked to also be office workers and collect data and fill in endless forms so that they go up the chain again and satisfy the paperwork thirst of a Brussels bureaucrat.

In December 2022, the farmer and Junts deputy, Salvador Vergés, read in Parliament a list of the measures required of farmers. The clip has gone viral these days as a result of the protests and, if it weren’t for the fact that it deals with such a serious subject, it would make me laugh.

Drought and priorities

To all the usual problems of the peasantry, this year also added the drought that the whole country is experiencing. The farmers, by decision of the Catalan government, were among the first to receive the blows of the cuts in water consumption. While they had to attend, amazed, a summer tourism campaign without limitations. And they must continue to be surprised, even, seeing the greenery of the golf courses, observing the huge water leaks declared by the ACA and realizing that the water bottling companies are still extracting water from the rivers. Supermarkets are full of plastic bottles filled with water, even though producing plastic bottles pollutes and forces extra water consumption. All to market an essential good that others are denied. Is it normal, then, that the peasants wonder how long the joke will last?

Desolate sovereignty

All this leaves a discouraging picture: that of a country unable to establish and manage its basic priorities. If we are not able to guarantee food production and water, what do we aspire to be? For this reason, the farmers redouble their pressure, although they were already received by the president of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès. The president often uploads videos on his networks where he is seen cooking recipes. It’s a relaxed way to show off in front of the public, but where do the eggs come from that the Most Honourable uses to make the cake? Where do flour, butter, milk, meat, apples, or artichokes come from? The answer of an urban politician would be simple: from the supermarket.

At a time when it seems that Europe has turned its back on the primary sector to obsess over the war economy, looking at Russia, since 11Onze we want to put ourselves on the side of the peasantry, remembering, once again, the risk of a food crisis that we face.

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Plogui, nevi o faci sol, el subministrament de l’aigua que consumeixen més del 80% dels catalans segueix en mans d’empreses totalment o parcialment privades. Malgrat els esforços per recuperar la gestió pública d’aquest servei, les multinacionals del sector es resisteixen a perdre un negoci milionari.

 

A través de l’empresa pública ONAIGUA, el consell comarcal d’Osona va assumir l’abril de l’any passat la gestió del subministrament d’aigua en aquesta comarca, pel que dona servei a 11.400 punts de consum i arriba a més de 25.000 habitants. Es va convertir en el primer consell comarcal a prendre una mesura d’aquest calat.

Podríem dir que es tracta d’una anomalia del mercat, ja que el subministrament de l’aigua a Catalunya està majoritàriament en mans privades. Un reduït nombre d’empreses privades administren i es lucren d’aquest bé preuat al nostre país gràcies a concessions moltes vegades qüestionades. I això que en el món la gestió pública assorteix al 90% de la població i Nacions Unides reconeix l’aigua com un dret humà.

Segons les dades de la plataforma Aigua és vida, més del 80% dels catalans obtenen l’aigua a través d’un servei totalment o parcialment privatitzat, mentre que el que el servei públic no arriba ni al 20% de la població. Aquest desequilibri s’explica pel domini del model privat en els municipis amb un major volum de població, que són els més rendibles.

 

Pressió per a municipalitzar un servei bàsic

Davant aquesta realitat, existeix una creixent pressió per recuperar la gestió pública d’aquest servei. L’Associació de Municipis i Entitats per l’Aigua Pública (AMAP) ja compta amb 68 membres i representa al 47% de la població de Catalunya. Recentment, publicava un informe amb propostes de reformes legislatives per canviar aquesta situació.

Sis municipis, l’Associació de micropobles de Catalunya i una nova empresa pública es van sumar a aquesta entitat l’any 2022. Dels nous municipis, només Mieres (la Garrotxa), Collbató (Baix Llobregat) i Torroella de Montgrí (Baix Empordà) gestionen directament l’aigua. Castelló d’Empúries està en procés de municipalitzar el servei, mentre que Manlleu i Sitges encara estan lligades a concessions per més d’una dècada amb Sorea i Agbar. Quant a l’Associació de micropobles de Catalunya, cal tenir en compte que el 70% dels municipis de menys de mil habitants, que són els menys rendibles, ja gestionen directament el subministrament d’aigua.

 

Gairebé un monopoli

Tot i que les empreses privades que gestionen l’aigua a Catalunya es presenten amb diferents noms segons el municipi, la majoria pertanyen al grup Agbar, que està valorat en uns 3.000 milions d’euros.

Aquest grup controla totalment l’empresa Sorea i posseeix gairebé el 80% de la Companyia d’Aigües de Sabadell (CASSA), el 68% d’Aigües de Rigat (Igualada) i el 49% de l’Empresa Municipal Aigües de Tarragona (Ematsa). A més, té al voltant del 35% de Mina Pública de Terrassa i el 31% de Girona SA.

Els seus beneficis no sols provenen de la venda d’aigua, que l’any passat pretenia encarir un 7,4% a Barcelona. També de la subcontractació de serveis a les seves filials. Això permet que a la Ciutat Comtal, per exemple, el cost dels comptadors d’aigua per a l’usuari final acabi més que triplicant el cost original. Això suposa uns 17 milions d’euros de benefici addicional a l’any.

 

Estratègia de judicialització

Davant un negoci d’aquesta grandària no resulta estrany que Agbar porti als tribunals qualsevol iniciativa encaminada a recuperar la gestió pública del subministrament d’aigua, com detalla el portal ctxt. Només a Barcelona, aquesta multinacional i les seves entitats afins han presentat una quarantena d’accions judicials.

La seva estratègia d’empantanar judicialment aquests processos per dilatar-los o diluir-los ha fet que fins i tot posés un contenciós contra un simple conveni entre l’Ajuntament de Barcelona i l’Àrea Metropolitana per a l’intercanvi d’informació entre institucions.

Un dels casos més sonats té a veure amb la consulta que l’Ajuntament de Barcelona volia impulsar per conèixer l’opinió de la ciutadania sobre una eventual gestió pública de l’aigua. Diverses entitats, entre les quals es troba Agbar, van interposar recursos. Finalment, el Tribunal Superior de Justícia de Catalunya (TSJC) va suspendre el reglament de participació ciutadana en la part relativa a les consultes i va impedir que la iniciativa tirés endavant.

El cas que afecta un major nombre de municipis és el que Agbar va impulsar contra diversos consistoris de l’Àrea Metropolitana de Barcelona. Inicialment, una sentència del TSJC en 2016 va anul·lar la concessió a Aigües de Barcelona del subministrament d’aigua en diversos municipis del cinturó metropolità, amb la qual l’empresa s’assegurava el servei a gairebé tres milions d’habitants durant 35 anys i uns ingressos de 3.500 milions d’euros. El tribunal veia “motius d’anul·lació per vicis en el procés de contractació” quan es va constituir l’empresa mixta en la qual participava Agbar. Tot i això, el Tribunal Suprem va revocar aquesta sentència l’any 2019 en considerar que el procediment emprat per l’Administració per adjudicar el servei sense concurs públic estava avalat per la Llei de contractes del sector públic.

 

Pràctiques tèrboles

Com denunciava Eloi Badia, regidor d’Emergència Climàtica i Transició Ecològica de l’Ajuntament de Barcelona, les tèrboles pràctiques d’Agbar per aconseguir concessions l’han dut a ser imputat en tres macrocauses judicials (Pokémon, Púnica i Petrum), a més de ser expulsat en 2017 de la gestió de l’aigua a Girona després de demostrar-se la seva vinculació amb la trama del 3%.

Els informes d’aquesta última causa constataven que, durant més de dues dècades, els gironins van pagar més d’1 milió d’euros de sobrecost pel servei d’aigua. A més, l’Agència Tributària advertia que els directius de l’empresa havien carregat despeses personals a la societat i va concloure que Girona SA havia cobrat centenars de milers d’euros per serveis no prestats.

Com expliquem en l’article “Els serveis públics, cada vegada més privatitzats”, la privatització de serveis essencials avança de manera implacable a Europa des dels anys vuitanta. I això està tenint un preu inqüestionable per al conjunt de la ciutadania. L’agent d’11Onze Jordi Coll apunta que aquest procés ha suposat sotmetre la prestació d’aquests serveis “a la lògica de criteris de mercat i, per tant, dels beneficis privats”.

 

Si vols descobrir com beure la millor aigua, estalviar diners i ajudar al planeta, entra a Imprescindibles 11Onze.

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Extreme weather events pose the greatest risk to humanity over the next decade, according to the World Economic Forum’s latest Global Risks 2024 Report. Still, misinformation and economic uncertainty are the main concerns in the short term.

 

The World Economic Forum’s annual Global Risks report analyses the main challenges facing the world two and ten years ahead. It also examines possible partnerships and different approaches to address these global risks.

While preparing the 2024 report, 1,490 experts from academia, business, government, the international community and civil society were surveyed. To complement this data, the Executive Opinion Survey (EOS) of 11,000 business leaders in 113 economies has been added to identify the risks that pose the most serious threat to each country.

A total of 34 global risks are analysed, including technological and economic factors, as well as social and geopolitical risks. A global risk is defined as the possibility of an event or condition occurring that would adversely affect a significant proportion of the world’s GDP, population or natural resources.

Main global risks linked to climate change

Changes related to the climate emergency, such as extreme weather events, loss of biodiversity, collapse of ecosystems or scarcity of natural resources, represent the greatest threat to humanity in the next ten years.

Two-thirds of respondents are concerned about extreme weather events over the next decade, a factor that also ranks second in terms of risk over the next two years. In this case, 5 of the top 10 global risks are related to the environment and climate change.

Among the heads of civil society organisations, Kirsten Schuijt, Director General of WWF International, warned that “unless we take urgent action, the threat will only intensify and bring us closer to inflicting irreversible damage on society and ecosystems”. Indeed, studies show that potentially irreversible changes to the planet could occur by the 2030s if temperatures continue to rise.

Increased risk of disinformation and social polarisation 

Disinformation, including that generated by artificial intelligence, and social and political polarisation are second and third in the ranking of concerns. Polarised societies are more likely to rely on information (true or false) that confirms their biases. In the short term, disinformation may affect 4 billion people who will vote in 60 countries in 2024

The report warns that governments will increasingly be in a position to determine which narrative is considered “the truth”, which could allow political parties to monopolise public discourse and suppress dissenting voices. Disinformation is therefore expected to continue to be used by domestic and foreign actors to widen socio-political divisions.

In this context, social polarisation emerges as one of the main risks that are interconnected with economic recession and lack of opportunities. Moreover, geopolitical tensions and armed conflicts are severely affecting the livelihoods of millions of people, and increase the possibility of war with global consequences.

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Clean hydrogen is presented as the fuel of the future, promising to provide carbon-neutral energy. However, it is not the first time that hydrogen has been hailed as the energy of the future only to run up against high production costs and difficulties with transport and storage, delaying its market introduction. Is it here to stay?

 

Hydrogen produced from fossil fuels, usually by the process of reforming with natural gas, is mainly used in the chemical and refining industry, and its production is responsible for the emission of 830 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. Yet it is less toxic and more easily dispersed than natural gas.

While clean hydrogen will largely avoid this pollution, there are still drawbacks to be addressed. Currently, hydrogen storage requires extremely high pressure and is therefore too expensive and inefficient for widespread use in the automotive industry.

China, known as the Asian giant and the world’s leading producer of hydrogen made from hydrocarbons, and other countries such as Australia, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Spain, and Chile are beginning to make the transition to clean hydrogen with multi-million dollar projects that suggest green hydrogen is here to stay.

 

What is green hydrogen?

Although hydrogen is the most abundant chemical element in the universe, and the third most abundant on the Earth’s surface after oxygen and silicon, it is not a primary energy form per se, but a chemical compound, which exists in combination with other elements, and which can have energy uses.

Just as conventional hydrogen obtained from hydrocarbons requires large amounts of energy and is a costly process, clean hydrogen, also known as renewable hydrogen or e-hydrogen, is generated from electricity from renewable energy sources, through a process called electrolysis of water. Electrolysis is a chemical process that uses electricity to separate hydrogen from oxygen in the water.

The fact that it emits no pollutant gases when produced makes it 100% sustainable, but the production costs are higher than with traditional hydrogen. Despite this, energy experts expect the price of clean hydrogen production to drop considerably over the next few years to match that of hydrogen produced from hydrocarbons.

 

The European Union does not want to be left behind

Europe wants to avoid losing its leadership in green hydrogen to China, as happened with solar panels. To this end, it has launched an industrialisation plan within the framework of the Horizon Europe project, to promote and accelerate research and development of green hydrogen with an initial investment of 2 billion euros.

The aim of the project is to scale up green hydrogen electrolysers, which are used to split water into hydrogen, and thus reduce the cost of a technology that is currently too expensive to compete in the market. The goal is to build hydrogen clusters deployed across Europe, and to bring together hydrogen-related infrastructures, as has been done with the electricity grid.

The introduction of new renewable energy sources in the coming years will be crucial for the environment. We, the common people and the planet, can now welcome the geopolitical competition between the major global economic powers to lead this new energy source.

 

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European farmers are up in arms. Rising costs, the removal of subsidies, new environmental measures and cuts to finance the war in Ukraine are strangling a sector that is essential to the continent’s food sovereignty and has become the scapegoat of the Eurocrats.

 

After seeing the images of half of Germany blocked by the avalanche of tractors heading towards the Brandenburg Gate, one might think that you reap what you sow. Europe’s political class has long been fomenting discord against the agricultural sector, and it was only a matter of time before one day or another it paid the consequences.

These protests are the latest in a series of farmers’ demonstrations across Europe. Previously, similar demonstrations have been seen in the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Spain and other European states, where farmers have also taken to the streets to express their dissatisfaction with the effects of planned environmental reforms and high production costs.

 

The casus belli of the German rural revolt

Although grouping all the demonstrations under a common denominator is tempting, they have mainly been triggered by specific national situations. The German agricultural sector is opposed to proposed cuts in fuel subsidies used in agriculture. An austerity policy that the German government argues became necessary after a Constitutional Court verdict prohibited the coalition government from transferring 60 billion euros in appropriations to mitigate the effects of the pandemic on the fight against climate change.

The cuts were intended to eliminate the existing tax benefits for diesel and the road tax exemption for agricultural and forestry vehicles. This would have allowed the federal government to save almost 1 billion euros in additional revenue from the official amount it has to save in the 2024 fiscal year – still pending parliamentary approval – of around 17 billion euros out of a budget of 450 billion euros.

This is against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. The war, instigated and perpetuated by the US and its client states in Europe, has been devastating for the German economy and industrial sector. Yet Berlin has pledged more than 17.1 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine from 24 January 2022, the same amount it would have to save through cuts during 2024.

But of course, these billions of euros in military “aid” are recycled into the German military-industrial complex which, like the one of the United States, is making a killing from this war, courtesy of the taxpayers and farmers who suffer the cuts because there is no money and the Ukrainians who serve as cannon fodder for the corporate interests behind these conflicts. As President Biden keeps repeating to keep the funds flowing, the money going to “Ukraine” is a good investment.

 

Climate targets vs. food sovereignty

Despite the loss of more than 5 million farms since 2005, a decline of 37%, Europe is generally self-sufficient in most foodstuffs. However, support for farmers provided by the Common Agricultural Policy is essential in ensuring the continuity of farms and crops in the EU. Especially since the increased costs caused by the sanitary crisis, the logistical funnel and the war in Ukraine.

Eurocrats in Brussels are nervous about the agricultural revolt on the continent. The EU has set a global goal of zero emissions by 2050, and EU officials are concerned that the outpouring of protests could set back the ambitious climate targets set by the European Commission.

According to Greenpeace, the current system, which pushes farmers to run large, intensively industrialised farms is broken and protesting for business as usual will not help. In any case, the situation of political neglect in which the rural world finds itself is unsustainable. The transition to a more sustainable model has to guarantee much more than the mere survival of the sector.

 

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